3 Pitchers Due for Positive Regression
Notes on Pablo Lopez, MacKenzie Gore, and Aaron Civale
Pablo López, Twins
The 28-year-old’s predictable rebound has already begun, as López has a 2.41 ERA with a 21:1 K:BB ratio through three starts in May.
This comes after a disappointing April, where he posted a 4.83 ERA over his first six appearances. A closer look at the numbers revealed he was getting quite unlucky, with a bottom-10 HR/9 and the fourth-lowest left-on-base rate among qualified starters that month. Since then, he’s allowed just one homer while stranding runners over 80% of the time.
At first glance, López’s season-long numbers show that more positive regression should be expected. His 3.93 ERA is well above his 2.84 SIERA (a career-best, by the way). After last season’s breakout that saw him become one of the elite fantasy hurlers, López has increased his K-BB% in 2024.
The key has been a further reduction in his walk rate. While López is throwing more balls than he was last year, he’s been making up for it by generating more called strikes.
López rode the sweeper craze to become an ace in 2023. A few rough outings early this spring may have led to doubts about his ability to repeat it, but he’s only improving in many ways. Expect that to continue with a 2-step against the Nationals and Rangers this week.
MacKenzie Gore, Nationals
Gore’s streak of tough matchups continues on Saturday against the Phillies. The up-and-coming southpaw has already had to visit Fenway and Texas recently, in addition to hosting the Dodgers and Astros.
It’s understandable why his surface-level numbers aren’t as strong as they could be, but a 3.38 ERA with a 21.6 K-BB% is quite impressive.
Among starters with at least 40 innings this season, Gore ranks 18th in K-BB% and SIERA. The underlying skills are suddenly elite.
However, a .396 BABIP has been tough to overcome. It’s the highest mark among SPs with the same 40 IP threshold. It has also led to an unsightly 1.45 WHIP. Gore’s walk rate is a little above average, but the sheer amount of hits he’s giving up is killing his WHIP. A 72% left-on-base rate has kept him afloat. Otherwise, he’d have an even higher ERA-SIERA.
The biggest change for Gore this year has been his fastball, which only trails Jared Jones in Stuff+ rankings (min. 40 IP). Gore’s 117 overall Stuff+ is now tied for sixth-best in baseball.
The improvement is due to increased Velo and ride, which could lead to a big second half for the 25-year-old.
Aaron Civale, Rays
Entering this season, I viewed Civale as “this year’s Eflin” — a veteran Rays acquisition who would break out thanks to (likely) a change in pitch mix. Civale was acquired in exchange for Kyle Manzardo at last summer’s trade deadline, and while his initial results in Tampa were mixed, it could be explained by the difficulty of making in-season changes with a new team.
Through his first four starts of 2024, Civale had a 2.74 ERA with a 24.7 K-BB%. Everything was going according to plan, but a 93% left-on-base rate and a 4.21 FIP suggested he was getting fortunate.
In the five starts since Civale has a .373 BABIP and a wildly low 49 LOB%. During this stretch, nobody has a lower LOB%, and only two starters have a higher BABIP.
It’s been a tale of two halves for Civale, but he’s been more unlucky than lucky overall, and that should even out over the course of the season.
One caveat is that Civale has already given up nine homers, which coincides with a higher K% and a career-worst grounder rate. Perhaps chasing whiffs is allowing batters to lift the ball more. It’s something to monitor in Sunday’s attackable matchup versus the Blue Jays.