6 MLB Futures Bets on Draftkings
I’m an enormous fan of Establish The Run. For those unfamiliar, ETR specializes in NFL and NBA content ranging from season-long fantasy leagues, DFS analysis, and prop betting. If these things interest you then I encourage you to subscribe.
The ETR team is incredibly skilled at winning props, in particular. ETR simply lines up their own (really strong) projections with what the sports books offer, and they bet anything that comes out as +EV.
This might sound obvious. It might sound too easy. But props can have really soft lines. As we’ll get to, sports books aren’t monitoring MLB season-long RBI totals or every single NBA player stat for ultimate efficiency. They’re far more concerned with spreads and team totals, etc.
This leaves a potential edge for anyone who is willing to sift through offerings and find that value. I did that with Draftkings’ MLB player futures. Below are the 6 bets that stood out most to me when cross referenced with projections.
*Note that we’re focusing on “unders” here. The reason is that unders can hit in a variety of ways, whether due to a change in playing time or an injury. For some of these bets all it takes is a 3-week hamstring strain to lock in a win.*
*Also note that these lines are from Draftkings Sports book*
Adam Duvall under 109.5 RBIs
Austin Meadows under 100.5 RBIs
Eugenio Suarez under 98.5 RBIs
Juan Soto under 117.5 RBIs
Shane Bieber under 235.5 strikeouts
Max Scherzer under 245.5 strikeouts
The rationale for these picks isn’t overly complicated. For the RBI props, we’re targeting fringe players who seemingly have inflated totals.
Yes, Duvall drove in 113 last season, but RBIs are the noisiest stat possible. Not only do they regress harshly, but by taking the under we can benefit from a loss of playing time or an injury. He’ll also likely be hitting lower in the order this season.
Meadows drove in 106 last season but this is the Rays. They could start platooning him if he struggles against lefties.
Suarez is a candidate to get straight up benched this season. Seattle only took on his contract to acquire Jesse Winker, which means they aren’t tied to him if he doesn’t give them the best chance to win.
Soto’s total is just too high. He’s incredible, but he’s likely to bat second on a bad offense. That doesn’t translate to driving in runs.
Bieber’s total is monstrous. He struck out 259 in 2019, but that came in 214 1/3 innings. I’m betting on him not reaching that innings total, and it remains to be seen how he performs coming off last year’s shoulder injury. Bieber started just 16 games in 2021.
Scherzer is the scariest one to bet against here, but this projection basically assumes that he is going to play a full season. We’re just betting on variance here. One could make a case for going against all the huge pitcher K totals.