Alex Bregman Is No Longer a Star, but He’s Remarkably Consistent

A free agent breakdown of the only difference-making third baseman in this year's class

My baseball group chat recently started our annual “free agency threads,” where we conduct deep dives into players about to hit the open market.

This exercise always gets me thinking about various factors related to each player—their value, how the market will perceive them, and which teams are the best fits. This year, I’ve decided to use the research I’ve already done to turn it into articles, too.

Please note that we like to bounce between stars, scrubs, and everything in between, so the writeups won’t be released in any particular order.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Age: 30

Overall, what a reliably consistent player. He hasn't been a star since 2019, but it would be unfair to expect him to be anything close to that in 2025 and beyond. It was his clear peak, and it was excellent, even if the height of the Juiced Ball era partially fueled it.

Since 2021, he’s steadily contributed to the Astros and fantasy players. Among qualified 3B since then, he ranks 7th in wRC+ and 6th in fWAR.

What stands out most about his 2024 is the sudden decline in walk rate—6.9% after not falling below 11% since 2017.

However, he had his second-highest ISO since the shortened pandemic season. It would be more concerning if both his BB% and ISO fell simultaneously.

Bregman’s 2024 barrel rate was higher than in 2019, again showing his reliance on the Juiced Ball era, which is when he was significantly over-performing his expected stats:

Using Robert Orr’s metrics, here are Bregman’s recent pulled fly ball percentiles:

Overall, he hasn’t pulled as frequently in the past two years. In 2023, it wasn’t as much of an issue because he maintained excellent swing decisions. The latter worsened in 2024 as pitchers attacked him more in the strike zone. He also chased more, and while it was still at a good rate, it was no longer at an elite one. Given his anemic barrel rates, Bregman needs to continue maximizing the remainder of his skill set.

It’s hard to see him returning to his 2019 level of performance, so there’s mostly downside with any long-term deal. At least at the plate, the hope is that he maintains an above-average performance for as long as possible.

Bregman’s potential adjustments include pulling more fly balls (which he has essentially already “maxed out” at) or hitting more barrels. For someone above the 50th percentile in league-wide barrel% just once in his career — back in 2018 — the latter option feels more of a hopeful path than a likely one.

Defensively, Bregman has been an above-average third baseman over the past three years, ranking eighth in OAA since 2022. His arm is poor for the position, which has led to Scott Boras mentioning second base as a possible long-term home for his client. It’s nice to have that as a future path, as we’ve seen with Trevor Story and Xander Bogaerts in recent years, but there’s also no need to move him off the hot corner immediately.

Bregman was a positive contributor on the bases early in his career, but he hasn’t been since 2019. With eight total steals over the past five seasons, inquiring teams shouldn’t expect much of a value boost here.

In terms of who might be interested aside from the Astros, the Blue Jays and Mariners are two contenders who could use his services at third base, but it’s unclear to what degree either franchise is looking to splurge. Seattle, in particular, is likely to tighten spending. T-Mobile Park is also a horrendous fit for his batted-ball profile.

In mid-September, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal explored the idea of Bregman joining the Red Sox. The Green Monster presents a clear stylistic fit, but the proposal would require moving Rafael Devers to first base and trading Triston Casas for pitching. I don’t anticipate Boston pursuing this option.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year, $150 million contract with the Giants, which is a reasonable starting point for negotiations.

Given his comfort and reputation within the organization, it ultimately makes the most sense for him to return to Houston. The Blue Jays seem determined to compete this year, which keeps a Bregman splash in play if they significantly outbid the Astros.

Personally, if I were the Astros, I’d offer something around 5 years and $140 million, preferring to slightly overpay by AAV to guarantee his contract comes off the books sooner. There isn’t a full DJ LeMahieu downside. Still, the risk of what can happen to high-contact, low-barrel profiles without an ability to overperform by pulling homers is worth remembering.

I predict he will land with Houston for six years and $160 million. He’s the only difference-making true third baseman on the open market, so teams that have a need and miss out must explore trades and internal options.