Backyard Scouting Report: San Diego Padres

A Skills-First Review of the Padres’ Lineup

Welcome to Backyard Scouting Report, where I’ll be tracking MLB hitters one team at a time, with an eye toward the bigger picture. This isn’t about reacting to hot streaks or weekly leaderboards. It’s to build a long-term view of the player pool that helps us stay sharp in both redraft and keeper formats.

Each week, we’ll review one lineup in full. Who’s showing signs of growth? Where is playing time shifting? Which under-the-radar changes might matter a month from now, not just today? The goal is to step back from the daily noise and keep track of how fantasy value is evolving across skill sets, usage, and opportunities.

Today’s focus: the San Diego Padres, who’ve emerged as one of baseball’s toughest teams to strike out.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is mounting a strong season. His walk rate is the highest it’s been since the days before surgery and suspension, and his strikeouts are down to a career-low as well. His barrel-per-plate-appearance remains robust, though it’s below his peak years. He’s chasing less, but pulling in the air less than ever. Interestingly, he’s currently pacing toward a career-high in steals, on track to surpass the 29 he swiped in 2023. At age 26, you’re seeing a player who has refined his style of play.

Manny Machado is having one of the more efficient offensive seasons of his career. His OBP is at a personal best, and his wRC+ currently ranks third among his full seasons, including 2020. He chipped in some steals early on - perhaps unsustainable, but valuable. What stands out most is how undervalued his production has been relative to his draft-day cost. Machado isn’t carrying teams, but he’s been quietly excellent in the context of a depressed offensive environment.

Luis Arraez’s strikeout rate is below 2%, which would be the lowest for any qualified hitter since 1976. This year, it hasn’t translated into meaningful offensive value as he’s no longer finding the sweet spot with the same frequency. The squared-up rate remains elite, but the rest of his batted ball profile is weakening. Without an outlier batting average, it’s hard to justify holding in 12-team formats.

Xander Bogaerts is running more than ever, but the rest of his profile continues to show signs of erosion. Once a consistent overperformer in expected metrics, that edge has faded, along with his power. The batted-ball data paints a concerning trajectory: less lift, less damage, more soft contact. For the Padres’ long-term commitment, the return on investment looks increasingly murky. For fantasy purposes, the speed helps, but it’s covering up what might be a structurally declining skill set.

At age 29, Gavin Sheets is putting together his most productive season to date, just a few homers away from a new career-high. According to Robert Orr’s SEAGER metrics, Sheets has become more selective - an adjustment that’s helping him elevate his natural power, especially to the pull side. The profile still comes with built-in limitations as he’s not a full-time player and struggles against lefties, but there’s clear streaming value in weeks with a heavy RHP slate.

Jackson Merrill looked like the clearest Year 2 breakout in April, but he suffered a hamstring injury, struggled upon his return, and is now on the concussion IL. I touched on Merrill further in the following piece:

A massive spike in walk rate has fueled Jake Cronenworth’s career-high OBP. However, he isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he has in the past. It’s only been 47 games, and there isn’t much else to report. His profile remains replaceable, but serviceable in a pinch.

The following highest PA totals on the Padres are Elias Díaz, Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, Martín Maldonado, Jason Heyward, and Brandon Lockridge. This is a team that badly needs an upgrade at left field this summer, though catcher is also a black hole offensively.