Ben Brown and Why You Can’t Put the Toothpaste Back in the Tube

A priority redraft pickup has appeared

“You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.”

This is a saying I hear often when fantasy football folks discuss breakouts.

The scenario usually goes like this — a talented young player is “blocked” by veterans on the depth chart to the point where fantasy managers don’t expect consistent playing time for a while. Then, the young player performs exceptionally, and the team must commit to them as part of their plans. The talent is too obvious, and it would be silly to keep them benched. The “toothpaste” is out of the tube. There’s no going back.

It isn’t apples to apples with football due to how most aging curves work in baseball. As Bubba and I recently discussed, hitters, in particular, are taking a bit to figure things out at the major league level. Pitchers are a little different, as we’ve seen some “high stuff” hurlers put it together quickly this year. Think Tanner Houck, Luis Gil, Jared Jones, and…. Ben Brown?

2023 Prospect Timeline

Last season was a great one for rookies in fantasy baseball. Not only did Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson make season-long impacts, but we also had upside pitchers available in FAAB throughout the spring. Mason Miller, Bryce Miller, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Andrew Abbott, etc. Some of them worked out better than others. One — Ben Brown — never made the jump to the bigs after opening the year with some impressive numbers.

Brown, who Chicago acquired from the Phillies in exchange for David Robertson at the 2022 trade deadline, was seen as a high-stuff arm with poor control. He registered a 0.45 ERA with a 31.2 K-BB% in four starts at Double-A to begin the year but struggled after being promoted. Overall, he had a 39% ball rate with a 14.3 BB%.

So far, in 2024, those numbers are down to 34% and 9.2%, respectively.

This improvement has been the biggest key to Brown unlocking his potential.

Snip Snap, Snip Snap

In addition to having concerns about Brown’s control entering the season, I hadn’t taken him seriously as a redraft contributor until now due to the Cubs’ usage of him between the rotation and bullpen.

This wasn’t a situation where Brown began the year in the rotation only to move to relief, or vice versa. He’s oscillated between roles, reminding me of one of the all-time great scenes from The Office.

The 24-year-old has logged 46 1/3 innings this season, which includes 13 total appearances and six starts.

Here are Brown’s ranks among pitchers with at least 40 IP:

• t-20th in K-BB%

• 18th in SIERA

• 5th in FIP

This admittedly includes his relief work, but it also includes his disastrous first appearance this season, where he allowed 6 earned runs out of the bullpen. Here are his stats if we remove that game:

• 44.2 IP

• 54 Ks

• 1.61 ERA

• 0.94 WHIP

• 2.01 FIP

Pretty, pretty good.

An Elite Pitch

After digging into the numbers it always helps me to understand how or why a player might be performing the way they are. Knowing Brown was viewed as having a good curveball, I checked out his Stuff+ rankings:

The above image is from using Eno Sarris’ model available on Fangraphs. Brown’s knuckle-curve is being listed as a slider, which shouldn’t be the biggest takeaway. We should instead focus on it being over a full standard deviation above the next highest pitches its being compared to.

Fixating on all slider/sweepers being mixed into a single pitch type is missing the forest for the trees. Brown’s curve/knuckle curve/slider is hellacious. Let’s try to understand why.

Using Statcast’s Run Values, Brown’s curve has been the most valuable in baseball this season.

With a minimum qualifier of 50 plate appearances, Browns’ 50.4% whiff rate on the offering is second among all pitch types in the league, behind only Fernando Cruz’s splitter.

Among curves, he allows the lowest xBA and xwOBA in MLB (min. 50 PAs).

So it’s a great pitch — thrown hard and with plus movement. All Brown needs to do is get it in the zone, which is a strategy that had probably led to his lowered ball%. If opposing batters can’t make contact with his curve in the zone, why even bother messing around?

Brown supplements his curve with a fastball that he relies on roughly 60% of the time, which is a lot for a pitch without a good Stuff+ grade. If there’s a concern with Brown moving forward, it’s that he’s overly reliant on one dominant offering.

Actionable Advice

What prompted me to write all this was the reaction to Brown’s 7 shutout innings against the Brewers this week. During a time where the fantasy community (over) celebrates any achievement from a buzzy young player, it felt like most were hand waving Brown’s dominance away.

This is a rookie pitcher with strong advanced metrics (that preceded Tuesday’s start) who just threw 7 no-hit innings against a top-5 offense in MLB.

The same offense just tagged Shota Imanaga for seven runs on Wednesday. He entered that game with a 0.84 ERA.

There are innings concerns, worries about his rotation spot, and questions about if he’ll be a starter long-term. They’re all valid. Having lost 19 of their last 30, I’m not sure the Cubs are in a position to start using Brown in relief again. Their rotation is good, and healthy, but Brown makes them better.

When asked what to do with Brown in fantasy leagues, the best way I can put it is that I’m not sure how it’ll all play out, but I want to roster him while we wait to find out.

As of now Jordan Wicks is making another rehab start and Brown could start on Sunday against the Reds. From there, it’s anyone’s guess.

The toothpaste is out of the tube. Let’s see what the Cubs try and do about it.