Biggest Early Values in Underdog Fantasy’s Midseason Best Ball Tournament
The main benefit to drafting early is a chance at creating a super team
Right now you can draft second half MLB Best Ball teams on Underdog Fantasy. The “7th Inning Stretch” tournament begins after the All-Star break, costs $7 for each entry, and totals $150,000 in prizes — including $30K going to first place overall.
While there will undoubtedly be some early-drafted teams who are killed by dead lineup spots thanks to injuries, there’s also the opportunity to create a “super team” by taking advantage of some absurd ADPs, which won’t be available later on.
So below are the best values as of Wedneday, May 10th (one day after the contest first launched). If you’d like to see my full rankings, you can do so via this Google sheet. They’ll be updated once per week, and you can even load them directly into Underdog drafts if you’d like — reach out on Twitter if you need help with that.
Lastly, if you haven’t played on Underdog before, but you want to draft Best Ball teams today, then I’d be forever grateful if you signed up using code TOOMUCHTUMA. If you do so, you’ll get your first deposit matched in bonus cash up to $100. Now let’s dive in.
Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies
Just like we saw with Underdog’s preseason tournaments, aces are mis-priced at the onset of a contest launch. Higher priced starters are some of the only ones in the player pool who can total enough innings, wins, and quality starts to be a difference maker. Late-round SPs, typically, are a trap.
I recommend giving each of those linked pieces a read if you’re new to Best Ball, as they explain the macro-level version of why to target aces early. Here’s a snippet:
Underdog teams need big pitching performances to win tournaments, and the number of players who can deliver those performances is shrinking. This is similar to selling out for running backs in fantasy football. RBs are more fragile than other positions, but we still take shots at the best ones early in drafts.
The same should be true for starting pitchers on Underdog. There's no in-season waivers or trades. Identifying in-season pitching breakouts is a workable strategy in managed-leagues, but we only get one shot at drafting enough quality starters in Best Ball.
Of the top 20 starting pitchers in 2022 Underdog scoring, 15 of them were taken within the first 8 rounds.
And here’s how steep the drop-off in SP production looked like on Underdog in 2022:
Anyways, I’m using Wheeler as the poster boy for a group of starters who simply need to be pushed up a round or so during the early portions of drafts. Note he currently sports a 4.26 ERA, but it comes with a 2.45, a career-worst 3.40 BABIP, and a career-worst 62.% left on base rate.
Other names on this list include Luis Castillo, Framber Valdez, and Kevin Gausman. I like drafting 4 SPs within the first 8-9 picks of UD drafts.
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox
One of the main benefits to drafting early in overall contests is to beat “closing line ADPs.”
For example, Yoshida opened with an ADP of 77, and barring injury I find it very unlikely that doesn’t rise by the All-Star break (which is when the final drafts will occur for the 7th Inning Stretch).
You’re risking that some of your players will get hurt between now and then, yes, but sometimes the price differences between early and late drafts more than makes up for it.
At one point Corbin Carroll was going in the 80s of January UD drafts. He closed spring training by going in the 30s. Yoshida might not experience that big of a jump, but if he keeps elevating the ball like he has been, the cost will only rise.
Logan Gilbert, SP, Mariners
I currently have Gilbert ranked a good 45 spots ahead of ADP. Not only is he part of the “SPs who need to be moved up” crowd, but he’s quietly undergoing a breakout that I don’t feel is getting enough attention:
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays
Taking players who are currently injured is risky for obvious reasons. However, I’m much more likely to draft a player nearing a return than one whose status still might be up in the air a month from now.
For instance, there’s no real guarantee that Oneil Cruz will contribute during the weeks you need him to for this contest. Carlos Rodon’s and Brandon Woodruff’s return dates are iffy as well. However, Glasnow is already on a minor league rehab assignment — but since he’s been “out of sight, out of mind” this spring, we have a chance to scoop him up ahead of his (likely) closing line ADP. Jose Altuve is another player nearing a return to consider taking.
Christian Walker, IF, Diamondbacks
Rowdy Tellez, IF, Brewers
There are several “boring” veteran hitters who are straight up values when using rest of season projections via THE BAT X. Walker and Tellez fit this description. They aren’t sexy picks, particularly for season-long roto players who are used to prioritizing stolen bases, but they mesh well with Underdog’s scoring system.
The market is likely to get efficient in a hurry, and July drafters are going to need to compete with rosters who had these guys at multiple rounds of ADP value. Walker and Tellez also go in the range of drafts where, historically, infielders beat outfielders in raw production:
Note the data in this graphic is only for April-August of 2022, which was the "regular season" for last year's tournament.
Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners
Arguably the story of the 2023 fantasy baseball season has been the rapid influx of rookie arms. It’s led to some fun discussions on how to rank them, for both redraft and dynasty, but I’m now on record as saying Bryce Miller is the best of the bunch.
As of Wednesday morning he has a top-3 Stuff+ among MLB starters, led by a four-seamer with the most “rise” of any fastball in the league:
Miller is also the rare rookie pitcher who doesn’t have that big of a workload concern, since he totaled 133 2/3 innings in 2022. The hype is only going to grow in the coming months.
Josh Bell, “OF”, Guardians
Bell is mislabeled as an outfielder in this tournament. He’d normally fall under the Walker/Tellez “boring infield” umbrella, but he deserves a slight bump in rankings now that he’s eligible at a shallower position.
Brett Baty, IF, Mets
Similar to Miller, this is a rookie who I foresee gaining steam throughout the summer. So far this season the 23-year-old has dealt with sporadic playing time and a long west coast trip where he was re-adjusting to life in the bigs.
Things are now heating up as the Mets search for more offense from their lineup, and Baty’s batted ball results are becoming impossible to ignore. He doesn’t yet have enough plate appearances to qualify for most of those red sliders on his Baseball Savant page, but here are his raw ranks in some notable stats:
25th in average exit velocity
18th in hard-hit rate
He could be ready for a 2nd half leap, and there’s a good chance he won’t ever be cheaper than he is right now.
Elly De La Cruz, IF, Reds
I typically advocate for avoiding minor leaguers on Underdog due to the likelihood for dead roster spots, but feel free to take some shots on Elly on the off chance he gets called up in the 2nd half. His tools are absurd, as evidenced from Tuesday’s batted ball results at Triple-A:
Even if he doesn’t get a midseason promotion to the majors I could see the Reds calling him up in September similar to what happened with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson last year.