Bobby Witt Jr. Leads A New Era of Superstar Shortstops

Let the 2025 Position Previews Begin!

Whereas a lot of fantasy position previews start with catchers, I like to flip it with shortstops, which is quickly becoming the most valuable position in baseball. Shortstop was once filled with plucky, contact-oriented speedsters, but five-tool offensive stars now dominate it:

The key takeaway from the above chart is how significant the recent spike has been. 2024 was the first full season in baseball’s Live Ball Era (since 1920) in which primary shortstops had a wRC+ of 100 or higher.

At one point last August, shortstops were out-hitting every other position besides designated hitter, but a quiet finish meant slipping in a positional comparison:

While first basemen still finished ahead of shortstops, the gap in production between the positions has shrunk drastically in recent years. First basemen used to be the near-exclusive home of power in fantasy baseball, but 2024 proved things are much flatter nowadays.

Shortstops rake in the modern game, or at least the current class of stars do. This hasn’t always been the case in the recent history of fantasy baseball:

2024 featured three of the top-six highest-scoring SS fantasy seasons since 2014. There were four league-bending SS seasons last summer, the highest total in my data set.

2024 also featured the single-best shortstop season since at least 2014, with Bobby Witt Jr.’s campaign as one of the best overall fantasy years in recent memory:

Last year’s league-bending shortstop performances were backed up by reality baseball metrics, as 2024 quickly shattered the modern record for league-wide fWAR by shortstops:

Witt, Henderson, De La Cruz, and Lindor led the quartet of elite SS seasons in this monstrous 2024 fWAR total.

All four return to the position in 2024, plus Mookie Betts (who had a $42 season in 2023) and Trea Turner (who joins Witt and Lindor as the only shortstops with two elite fantasy seasons in the past decade).

There’s depth at shortstop, to a point, and serious star power, making it a priority position to understand at the top of drafts.

Note that the tiers below are designed for 12-team, 5x5 roto leagues. Instead of getting too hung up on the exact order of the players, please use the analysis to understand better how each profile plays in your specific league settings.

If you have questions or additional insights, including for players who weren’t covered, please comment or reach out on Twitter @toomuchtuma!

Tier 1: Modern Legends

Bobby Witt Jr. / Royals / Age: 24

We’ve established how Witt is coming off the best fantasy season by a shortstop in a decade, and it’s equally impressive how valuable he was for the Royals. Using fWAR, it was the third-best season by a shortstop in the modern era (since 1920).

He just had that type of season and doesn’t turn 25 until June.

In my data collection for league-bending SS seasons (since 2014), just three players have accomplished the feat twice — Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, and Witt. The difference for Witt is that he has only played three seasons and has the highest max season by any of them — by a lot.

That tells me this player has entered the highest possible tier. For fantasy purposes, he’s closer to Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge than anyone else. When doing a little projection for his age, making a case for him as the 1.01 in roto formats becomes acceptable.

Here is where he projects by Steamer in each roto category:

• AVG: 2nd

• Runs: 5th

• SB: 6th

• RBI: 14th

• HR: 20th

This well-rounded foundation could lead to a legendary season. To cap it off, don’t look past the category he projects for the 2nd-highest dollars earned. Now that stolen bases are skyrocketing across the league, batting average shifts to fantasy’s scarcest statistic.

One final note is that Royals leadoff hitters had the lowest OBP (.270) in the majors last season. This was primarily the result of Maikel Garcia, and Kansas City traded for Jonathan India this offseason. India’s 2024 OBP was higher than every Royal with at least one plate appearance other than Witt, who hit second in all 161 games he started last season. Players sometimes plateau when they peak early, but Witt’s floor/ceiling combo makes him a perennial top fantasy selection for years.

Gunnar Henderson / Orioles / Age: 23

Checking in one year younger than Witt, Henderson might’ve just completed his version of Witt’s 2023 — an elite season for a fantasy shortstop but not necessarily a legendary campaign. Still, at just 23 years old, Henderson posted the fifth-best roto season by a shortstop since 2014.

Henderson had the third-most plate appearances in the majors last year and did so for a top-four offense in the league. 37 homers (9th in MLB) and 118 runs (6th) fueled his fantasy scoring, and he still made meaningfully positive contributions in the other three categories. He’s a five-tool stud who might still be getting better, having just tied for the sixth-highest fWAR season by an Orioles position player since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954:

Elly De La Cruz / Reds / Age: 23

I wrote extensively about Elly in September. In the middle of Round 1, he remains someone to continue betting on.

Mookie Betts / Dodgers / Age: 32

The three-time World Series champion has moved around defensively of late, so it’s been tough to keep up with where he qualifies. Entering 2024, he’s mainly SS/OF, but formats with light eligibility requirements for games played will also grant him 2B, which is exceptionally valuable. Francisco Lindor is coming off a fantastic season, but Betts’ multi-eligibility gives him the edge in priority while drafting. Each player seemingly has a high-floor range of outcomes in their career.

Betts nearly posted a league-bending season in 2023 when he fell $1 short of qualifying. Given he pulled that off without Shohei Ohtani in the Dodgers lineup, it’s reasonable to think he still has an upside entering his age-32 season.

The year before his near-legendary effort, in 2022, Betts played to a $33 value, and he had close to the same wRC+ in 116 games last year. Betts’ barrel rate fell sharply in 2024, but he also recorded a lower strikeout rate and has hit .299 over the past two seasons, adding to his roto appeal.

Francisco Lindor / Mets / Age: 31

Closing out the elite tier is the only SS with three straight seasons returning $30 or more. 2024 was Lindor’s second-best fantasy season, putting him in the two-timer club for elite shortstops over the past decade, alongside Turner and Witt.

While Lindor hit five more homers in the juiced-ball 2018 season, his 2024 barrel rate was the highest of his career. If he can maintain that or come close to it again, Lindor should remain a 4.5-category monster. There’s always a bit of batting average risk with Lindor, and who knows how much longer he’ll keep running, but a 90th-percentile barrel rate with Juan Soto joining the lineup is something not to overthink.

Tier 2: Star Power

Trea Turner / Phillies / Age: 31

Turner has had two of the top nine roto shortstop seasons since 2014, but it has been two years since he reached the $30 valuation that Lindor has consistently achieved of late.

Trea missed a little over a month due to a strained hamstring last year, but it’s important to note he bounced back from the weird start to his Philadelphia tenure. After going on a tear to close 2023, Turner again looked like himself in 2024, even if he didn’t return to the star level of production we saw in 2020-21.

This is still a top-25 overall hitter due to a balanced profile, strong track record, and strong supporting cast.

Corey Seager / Rangers / Age: 30

It needs to be emphasized how dominant Seager’s 2023 was:

Then he hit .318/.451/.682 in the playoffs en route to his second World Series MVP award.

Of course, this being Seager, he was limited to 119 games during the regular season that year. He has played more than 135 games just once since 2017, so the expectation should be at least one IL stint.

In mid-September 2024, Seager underwent successful sports hernia surgery—his second in nine months after undergoing the same operation on the other side last January. He is expected to be ready for spring training.

Seager’s historic 2023 only yielded a $31 roto campaign, though he likely would’ve had an elite SS year had he stayed healthy. That’s the story with him, though. The batting average upside is excellent enough to keep me interested.

Willy Adames / Giants / Age: 29

Everything you’ve heard about Adames this offseason has likely centered around the unsustainability of his incredible walk year, which the Giants rewarded with a seven-year, $182M investment. In fantasy, it’s typically wise to bet on players set to enter free agency and fade non-elite players coming off career years.

I feel that sentiment has gone too far.

Let’s start with the 112 RBI. Adames had a whopping 224 PAs with runners scoring position last year, tied for the highest total since 2012. It led to a historic number of three-run homers. That’s the definition of running hot.

Then there’s the stolen bases, which jumped to 21 despite Adames never swiping more than eight. Here’s how he did it, courtesy of Statcast metrics:

Adames combined additional opportunities with an elevated attempt rate — the classic formula for many impending free agents. The Brewers had the third-highest SB% in 2024, while the Giants were tied for 27th. There’s every reason to expect him to regress to the 8-10 range of thefts.

Ultimately, Adames is a good player who had a great season. It reminds me of Dansby Swanson, who is typically a $10-15 roto player but had a $31 campaign in his 2022 walk year. When entering a draft, understanding the expected regression coming Adames’ way should be considered table stakes. It doesn’t make him undraftable.

Tier 3: Young with Upside

Oneil Cruz / Pirates / Age: 26

We finally got to see an entire season from one of baseball’s leading Statcast darlings, and the results were impressive, even if he didn’t reach his ultimate ceiling.

As discussed last offseason, Cruz showed an ability to improve his swing decisions as a young major leaguer. While we always want the breakouts to happen immediately, sometimes seeing a little progress as a player is still developing is encouraging.

In 2022, Cruz posted a 53 K% in 111 plate appearances against lefties. In 2024, he lowered that to 30% in 154 PAs. This is another sign that he’s continuing to improve in his youth. 2025 will be a big test to see how capable he is of the breakout year we’ve always wanted from him.

CJ Abrams / Nationals / Age: 24

This quartet represents the last “upside” tier before shortstop profiles become more boring/everyday steady options. Cruz, Abrams, Tovar, and Neto each accumulated between $16 and $19 last season, and there are reasons to think we haven’t seen the best of each yet.

Two years ago, Abrams traded some in-zone contact for damage per batted ball event, and he doubled down on that approach in 2024:

(The above numbers refer to league-wide percentiles and are courtesy of Robert Orr).

He improved his season-long line from a 91 wRC+ two years ago to 107 this past season. However, this flawed hitter has never made even close-to-average swing decisions. He’ll need to keep improving his strength as he enters his age-24 season.

The final note on Abrams is that his stolen base efficiency fell from 92% in 2023 to 72% in 2024, and his total steals dropped from 47 to 31. Abrams still has the potential to turn into a power-speed superstar, but I wish I felt better about his SB floor.

Ezequiel Tovar / Rockies / Age: 23

Tovar is another youngster who continues to improve year after year, but his hitting profile has holes to fill. The 23-year-old struggles with contact and doesn’t make good swing decisions. He’s aggressive on “hittable pitches,” which led to above-average damage/BBE in 2024, but his overall plate discipline needs refinement.

Tovar improved in ‘24 by lifting the ball more, as his fly ball rate jumped from 34% to 46%. Using Orr’s metrics, Tovar’s pulled fly ball rate shot into the 78th percentile last year.

The skills aren’t as loud as those with Abrams and Cruz, but managers could do far worse than investing in Tovar’s everyday playing time. Over the past two years, he has the 29th most PAs in MLB despite playing for a bad Rockies lineup and without consistently hitting atop the order. He oddly hit better on the road last year than at Coors, so perhaps that’s another avenue to statistical improvement.

Zach Neto / Angels / Age: 24

Neto’s section would’ve been much more fun to write before he underwent shoulder surgery in early November. For context, he injured it on a sliding attempt at second base in late September. After trying to rehab the injury for three weeks, the decision was made to get surgery. His status for Opening Day is uncertain, per Angels GM Perry Minasian:

“He had a surgery a couple days ago and I’m not one for timeframes, but he could miss the start of the season,” Minasian said. “We’ll see where that goes. But he did have the surgery on the shoulder. I can’t get into details. But he will miss some time. And how much time, we’ll see.”

After flashing as a rookie in 2023, Neto improved as a 23-year-old last summer. He only hit .249, but that came with 23 homers and 30 thefts (though at just a 75% success rate).

Neto doesn’t have elite batted ball metrics, but he can ultimately do damage because he makes good swing decisions and pulls enough fly balls. Given concerns over his shoulder and SB efficiency, Neto carries risk heading into 2025. He has more upside when healthy and on a per-PA basis than the next tier.

Tier 4: Safety First

Xander Bogaerts / Padres / Age: 32

From 2021 to ‘23, Bogaerts produced at a consistent $16-20 rate, and he was particularly productive regarding his batting average.

Last season, he got off to a terrible start before suffering what appeared to be a serious-looking shoulder injury. Bogaerts beat his projected timeline to return and ended up finishing much stronger:

I generally agree that full-season stats are more predictive than partial-season stats, but it certainly gives me confidence that it wasn’t an entirely lost season. Bogaerts is 32 now, and his ISO remains in decline, but he’s adjusting by continuing to improve his contact skills — a graceful decline if you will. He’s now 32-for-37 (86%) in steals over the past two years.

Dansby Swanson / Cubs / Age: 31

Everything came together for Swanson in 2022. He had a career-best 117 wRC+, but more importantly, he had nearly 700 plate appearances for a top-3 offense in MLB.

Swanson also swiped 18 bases in his contract year, his highest by eight. He stole 19 this past season, but the difference in roto value in the table above shows how drastically the league-wide stolen base environment has shifted.

This is all to say that Swanson might no longer have that upside. However, his durability and everyday playing time make him an ideal MI or UTIL option.

Anthony Volpe / Yankees / Age: 23

Credit to Volpe for working to improve his game in 2024. He became a much better defender and improved his base running, leading to 3.4 fWAR despite an 86 wRC+.

Offensively, his adjustment was to sacrifice his barrel rate (falling from 9% to 4%) in exchange for improved contact:

Fantasy-wise, the changes helped as his batting average jumped from .209 to .243. His runs scored also spiked as the Yankees rose from 25th in runs in 2023 to 3rd in 2024. His stolen bases increased from 24 to 28.

It’s an accumulator profile with perceived upside due to Volpe's age and prospect pedigree. I want to monitor young players to see how they progress with experience, but in Volpe’s case, it remains fair to wonder who he will be as a hitter in the future.

Masyn Winn / Cardinals / Age: 23

Winn is essentially 2024 Volpe if you swapped stolen bases for batting average. Otherwise, it’s modest power without tools that hint at another level. He’s a safe pick for those who want everyday playing time in an MI slot, especially in deeper leagues.

Jeremy Peña / Astros / Age: 27

Peña had the best 2024 roto season of anyone in this tier, but once again, his profile is that of a boring accumulator. During his three seasons in the majors, his barrel rate has gone from 10% to 4% to 5%. He is already 27 years old, and seeing him reach another level is getting harder to envision.

Tier 5: Wild Cards

Matt McLain / Reds / Age: 25

McLain’s upside scenario puts him in the Tovar-Neto range. Most projections have him as a top-12 SS for 2025 roto leagues.

McLain had a fantastic debut in 2023, batting .290 with 16 homers and 14 steals in only 89 games. With a tremendous home park and an up-and-coming supporting class, it was easy to forecast a breakout in 2024.

Instead, McLain’s year never began as he underwent left shoulder surgery in late March. He later suffered a setback due to a stress reaction in his rib cage. Combined with an oblique issue from his rookie year, McLain’s injuries are starting to pile up.

He played some center field to get more at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, but it doesn’t sound like the Reds plan to use him there in 2025. Instead, expect his eligibility to be shortstop and second base, an even more valuable position for fantasy purposes. His profile has flaws, but he’ll move up the priority list in March drafts if he's fully healthy throughout spring training.

Bo Bichette / Blue Jays / Age: 27

In 2021, Bichette had the past decade's third-most valuable roto shortstop season. He remained a quality hitter the next two years and even improved his wRC+ from ‘21, but he quickly stopped stealing bases. Neither he nor Vlad Jr. lived up to the 2021 production, which we all know came with many home games in minor league parks.

I liked Bichette as a roto pick last season, mainly as a batting average anchor, but everything about his 2024 was terrible. He was either injured or playing poorly. The underlying data shows his swing decisions took a step back, and now it’s a matter of whether Bichette represents a bounce-back or a falling knife. Given we always had concerns about his swing decisions aging poorly, I lean toward the latter.

Carlos Correa / Twins / Age: 30

Correa hasn’t been a season-long difference-maker in fantasy since 2021, and he hasn’t stolen a base since 2019, so that’s one category down right off the bat. He was fantastic at the plate last season (155 wRC+), but it all comes down to health with him.

Entering 2024, he had questions related to both health and performance, so that’s some improvement. He’s best viewed as a streaming bat to plug in when healthy, but one who shouldn’t command a high investment on draft day.

Xavier Edwards / Marlins / Age: 25

Edwards combined elite contact skills with above-average swing decisions to fuel a .398 BABIP, leading to a .321 AVG and 31 stolen bases. That’s highly valuable when acquired in-season via waivers, but it’s a riskier profile to pay for on draft day. He hit just one homer in 303 PAs with terrible batted-ball metrics. His low.700s OPS projection is one of the best on the Marlins, which helps him with playing time, especially early in the season.