Carlos Rodón Is Changing. Will It Work?

Carlos Rodón has reinvented himself before. When he debuted with the White Sox in 2015, the burly lefty relied on a nearly even mix of three pitches—a four-seamer, a sinker, and his trademark slider—each hovering between 29% and 32% of his usage. He wasn’t a ‘wide-arsenal’ guy, but this version of Rodón was a far cry from the power pitcher we now associate with his peak.

Then came the injuries. Biceps, shoulder, elbow—one setback after another, culminating in Tommy John surgery in May 2019. When baseball emerged from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Rodón, once the No. 3 overall pick, was an afterthought.

That’s when everything changed. He came back throwing harder than ever:

It began a two-year stretch of bullying hitters with his superb fastball-slider combo. In 2021, nobody had a more valuable heater than Rodón, per Statcast’s run values. His 52 K% led all sliders.

His career was back on track, and the Yankees bet big on his resurgence, signing him to a six-year, $162 million deal before the 2023 season. His first season in pinstripes was a disaster. Limited to 64 innings, Rodón struggled badly, surrendering home runs at one of the highest rates in the league.

This time, it was a forearm injury that derailed him. And while 2024 was technically a bounceback, his command looked unrecognizable. Compare his fastball-slider locations from 2022:

To 2024:

His precision disappeared, which is reflected in PitchingBot’s command grades by season:

• 2021: 58

• 2022: 57

• 2023: 48

• 2024: 47

The above numbers are designed for the 20-80 scouting scale. You can read more about the model by clicking here.

Opening Day Takeaways

It’s just one start, but after Thursday’s win over the Brewers, we already see changes in Rodón’s approach. He threw four-seamers 26% of the time, his lowest rate in a single start since June 2018.

Tying things back to when Rodón first debuted, here’s how his pitch usage has evolved for his career:

Rodón’s reduced reliance on his four-seamer is striking. Instead, he mixed five pitches on Thursday at least 10% of the time. This is what a true ‘wide-arsenal’ guy looks like.

After shelving his sinker for six years, Rodón spent March working to revive it, as Greg Joyce of the New York Post reported.

What It Means

Despite his struggles with the Yankees, Rodón has maintained his post-Tommy John velocity. The issue has been spotting the ball. Evolution is crucial, as older, injury-prone starters can’t rely on their fastballs into their 30s.

For his career, Rodón holds a 0.76 HR/9 rate against lefties, compared to 1.24 against righties.

One of the subtle changes to Rodón’s 2024 was that his changeup became his best offering by run value. It also had his highest whiff rate. Now, with the addition of a sinker that mirrors its movement, he has another tool to keep hitters off balance:

This kind of reinvention is one of the most effective ways for an aging pitcher to delay decline. However, it's important to note that this is more about adjusting than Rodón reaching a new level.

When asked about his pitch usage after Thursday’s game, Rodón told SNY:

"I thought [Austin] Wells was great with the pitch calling today. For me it's just, we get a plan together he calls the pitch and I just roll."

With Gerrit Cole absent this year, the Yankees don’t just need a power pitcher—they need an ace. After one start, Rodón has shown he’s willing to adapt in his approach and role.