Corbin Carroll Is Baseball’s Next Top Prospect
It’s graduation season — not just for high school and college seniors around the country, but for baseball’s top prospects as well.
The start of the 2022 MLB season saw a bigger-than-normal influx of top prospects making Opening Day rosters. After a decade of fans growing accustomed to the term “service time manipulation”, several front offices departed spring training with their best, most ready minor league players still on the active roster.
This was most likely due to the new CBA rules, but the reason isn’t important right now. Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Torkelson, CJ Abrams, and Hunter Greene broke camp with their big league clubs. Adley Rutschman, Shane Baz, and Riley Greene likely would’ve as well if not for injuries. That’s good for the sport.
It also means that as we approach the end of May we’re going to see a new wave of prospects move up the rankings. Witt and Rodriguez won’t be No. 1 and 2 anymore. Rutschman still has a ways to go with his eligibility, so he’ll likely hold down the top spot in the interim. Grayson Rodriguez and Anthony Volpe will be up there, as will several others.
But the one name to really become familiar with? Corbin Carroll.
The Background
Carroll was the Diamondbacks’ first-round selection (No. 16 overall) in 2019. A dynamite talent, Carroll “slipped” in the draft due to concerns over his small stature. He didn’t get a chance to play in 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season, and then he tore his labrum after just 7 games in High-A last April.
Per reports, Carroll made the most of his down time by watching games behind home plate with Arizona’s advanced scouts, asking questions and talking baseball. Does that matter? I think it highlights his plus makeup, but at the end of the day production is everything. In 2022, the production hasn’t disappointed.
The Breakout
“Breakout” is a relative term here. Carroll was a consensus top-20 prospect entering the season, so he was already an established name in Prospect Land (I had him at No. 19 in my preseason Top 50 for Patreon subscribers).
He’s about to become a whole lot more.
Despite being limited to 49 professional games (none above High-A) since turning pro in the summer of 2019, Caroll has erupted at Double-A this spring. The 21-year-old is slashing .316/.455/.675 with 11 homers and 10 stolen bases in just 29 games. It was an aggressive assignment considering all the missed time. Arizona likely would’ve been content with Carroll simply showing he’s healthy and retaining his pre-surgery skills, so this is a true 99th percentile outcome thus far.
Geoff Pontes of Baseball America recently posted an article ($) that looked at public and proprietary data in order to highlight the most productive hitters in the minors. Some of this data can’t be accessed publicly, but Carroll passed the test. As of May 16th he had a .473 wOBA, a 90 mph average exit velocity, a 26% swing-and-miss rate, and a .368 ISO. This confirms that Carroll hits the ball hard, makes a lot of contact, and produces in games. Giddy up.
The Future
Arizona recently promoted Alek Thomas to the majors, which has fans wondering when Carroll might join him in the D’Backs’ outfield. As exciting as this first month-plus has been, let’s remember how little experience Carroll has in the minors, let alone the upper minors.
Rookie bats are having varying results at the big league level, so patience is encouraged before us internet bums start demanding an immediate promotion for Carroll.
My best guess for his timeline is a late-season promotion to Triple-A, followed by repeating the level to begin 2023, and hopefully culminating in a big league call-up around this time next year.
Ultimately, Corbin Carroll is a multi-talented player who projects to hit at-or-near the top of a big league lineup for years to come. He combines a mature, all-fields hitting approach with double-plus speed and strong defense in center field.
He’s an easy player to love — a great name, elite production, an “overachiever” due to his Pablo Sanchez-esque stature. With a helmet that appears to be too big for his head and body, Carroll even looks like a Backyard Baseball player. Perhaps he should’ve been dubbed “Secret Weapon” in honor of the GOAT.
