Cristian Javier, Everywhere
A breakout seems obvious. Too obvious?
I remember exactly where I was as it was happening — walking around Boston on a tour of the city with my girlfriend and her mom. That detail isn’t important to the story, but to me it confirms that this was a “remember where you were when it happened” performance by Cristian Javier.
On June 25th, 2022 — just about the time when summer begins heating up and day-by-day box scores become tougher and tougher for fantasy managers to keep up with — Javier twirled 7 no-hit innings in Yankee Stadium, striking out 13 while walking one.
The FOMO began consuming me almost immediately. Not only was I unable to watch this live, but it soon hit me that I didn’t roster the 25-year-old anywhere. And the price of the brick was about to go up.
Javier’s follow-up act was a 1-hit, 14-strikeout masterpiece against the Angels. Beginning with the Yankee start he pitched 93 innings from June 25th on. Here are his stats and league-wide ranks during that time:
2.23 ERA (6th in MLB)
12.2 K/9 (3rd)
27.5 K-BB% (2nd)
0.82 WHIP (1st)
.146 BAA (1st)
14.6 SwStr% (5th)
3.19 FIP (18th)
It kept getting better as the year moved along. Over his final 4 starts of the regular season he went 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 IP.
Then in his two postseason starts Javier totaled 11 1/3 innings, allowing no runs on 1 hit while striking out 14. This included Game 4 against the Phillies in which Javier (6 innings) combined with three relievers to throw the 2nd no-hitter in World Series history.
It was a meteoric rise for a young arm who began 2022 in Houston’s bullpen. He was off to a nice start in April, made a couple of spot starts, and by mid-May was set to join the rotation full time. His first outing was against the Nationals.
Javier was lit up for 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 frames.
This is why I missed on him in ‘22 redraft leagues. I had Javier for that outing. I dropped him. His next two starts combined for 11 2/3 innings of 1-run ball…with 18 strikeouts!
You might be noticing a bit of a theme with Javier, and it’s that his best outings are IMMACULATE, though there are some inconsistencies mixed in.
This is backed up by Eno Sarris’ Pitching+ model, where Javier had a 115 Stuff+ and a 101 Location+ in 2022.
This was a massive improvement from 2021 — Javier had a 104 Stuff+ and a 96 Location+.
The difference in his “stuff” and location numbers highlight how vicious his pitches are, but that his command still wavers from time to time, leading to the aforementioned start-to-start inconsistencies.
The good news is that it all improved last year. The command was better, which raised his floor. His arsenal improved, which spiked his ceiling. How did he do it?
Here’s a look at the locations of his four-seamer and slider from 2021 (shown first) and 2022. Note Javier combined to throw these two offerings over 86% of the time in each season. They’re easily his primary weapons.
Here you can see his locations were just a little bit tighter for each pitch last season (the most red areas are more concentrated).
Now how about that jump in “stuff?” It, uhh, stemmed from generating A LOT more horizontal movement on his slider:
Pairing that with a better located, high-spin fastball is what led to Javier’s 2022 breakthrough. But does he have even more room to grow?
You’ll notice in the location images above that Javier’s slider usage didn’t increase at all last season, despite some elite metrics on the pitch, which include a .181 wOBA and a 39.4% whiff rate.
His slider produced better results than his fastball, though he threw the four-seamer a ton more. It’s no guarantee that an uptick in slider usage would lead to even better production, but it’s a possible path to him reaching another level in ‘23.
On the flip side we should note how fortunate Javier was during that 93-inning stretch to end the regular season. The stats were spectacular, but they came with a .185 BABIP (lowest in MLB during this time) and an 88.4% left on base rate (3rd highest during this run).
Those figures are likely to regress this season, but by how much? Aside from his walk rate, Javier’s only metric that wasn’t dominant last year was his FIP. It was still strong for the season at 3.16, but it’s an outlier compared to his 2.54 ERA and 2.43 xERA.
Also, Javier was elite at suppressing batted balls in ‘22. This was likely aided by some good fortune and Houston’s plus defense, but he might also have a knack for limiting damage on contact. The projection systems up on Fangraphs don’t appear to be factoring this in. It’s another path for Javier to be a value in ‘23 fantasy drafts.
It’s funny to me that Javier is such a screaming breakout candidate in what will only be his first full season in a rotation. He logged 161 2/3 innings last year, including playoffs, so the expectation should be that he can reach 170-180 in the 2023 regular season, should everything go according to plan.
I’m very much banking on it. Javier is in the early running as my choice for this year’s version of Shane McClanahan.