Does Jorge Mateo Have Round 1 Fantasy Baseball Upside?
The new rules are letting speedsters run wild, but does Mateo have enough thump in his bat to truly make a difference?
At the very end of draft season Ryan Bloomfield asked fantasy twitter which player being drafted outside the top 12 rounds would put up first-round value in 2023? Alex Chamberlain responded with “I think it will be a 70+-grade-speed base-stealer like Mondesi, Esteury, Mateo, Straw, Berti, etc.”
Mateo then swiped two bases on Opening Day. And two more the following game. Alex’s take on this has been stuck in my head since, and (incredibly) through 3 weeks of play Mateo is performing like a Round 1 fantasy player. How did we get here?
It’s important to note that Mateo was once considered a universal top-100 prospect. Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline ranked him top-30 entering 2016, and he stuck around as a consensus top-100 guy through 2018.
Mateo debuted with the Padres in 2020, but over the next two seasons, which included a midseason trade to the Orioles in 2021, he combined to hit .236/.281/.364 - good for 25% worse than league average and 11 stolen bases in 237 plate appearances.
The first “big breakout” came last year, when Mateo rode everyday playing time to pop 13 homers and swipe an American League-leading 35 bags. He even totaled 2.8 fWAR despite an 82 wRC+. It was a fun story in a season full of them for the 83-win O’s.
But seemingly everyone, myself included, treated it as just that - a 2022 storyline. Baltimore has a barrage of talented, high-end infield prospects nearly ready to arrive in the majors. Mateo eventually has to transition to a utility role, right? It’s only a matter of time until Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, and Jordan Westburg force the issue, right? Instead, Mateo is the one who taking a leap with his skills.
Entering Tuesday Mateo has improved in just about every facet of hitting. As evidenced above he’s chasing less, which is leading to fewer swinging strikes, which is allowing him to walk more frequently and strike out less often.
He has improved his maxEV every year:
‘20: 108.8 mph
‘21: 109.5 mph
‘22: 111.3 mph
‘23: 112.4 mph
Mateo has a career 38.8% pull rate, but he’s currently pulling half of his batted balls. This comes with a career-best hard-hit rate as well. There are real skill changes taking place here.
Now for the negatives. Mateo has an unsustainable .394 BABIP and he’s hitting way too many grounders. He’s also massively over performing his xwOBA (.385) compared to his actual wOBA (.453).
So there’s regression coming, but we knew that. Anyone hitting .372/.431/.651 is due to come back down to earth - especially when that hitter is still 13% worse than league average for their career.
The question becomes where does the dust settle? Is Mateo going to revert to his 2021-22 self or is there a new baseline here? If he winds up stealing 50+ bases does it even matter? The hope with rostering him last year was that he wouldn’t hurt you in other categories besides steals. Now he might be helping you.
Ultimately, Mateo is unlikely to finish as a Round 1 fantasy value, but his performance this year has me thinking about how different of a macro environment we’re dealing with in fantasy right now.
So many rule changes have come to baseball at once. Starting pitching ERA is through the roof, league wide BABIP is up, and stolen bases are making a comeback. We’re still sorting through it all, but one thing that has become clear to me is the value of being one step ahead on league-wide trends.
I’m willing to believe someone like Mateo could become a key part of this year’s story, particularly in roto formats. Even if he only produces as a top-60 player, that will be a massive success for those who drafted him.
Jorge Mateo, league-winner? Maybe. Welcome to 2023 fantasy baseball.