Dynasty Catcher Rankings Takeaways
Is William Contreras an elite? Yainer Diaz and Bo Naylor rising
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty catcher rankings.
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Notable catchers losing eligibility this season include Daulton Varsho, MJ Melendez, and Henry Davis.
1. Adley Rutschman, Orioles
You already know he’s the best catcher, especially in dynasty, but I think it’s important to understand why.
Rutschman easily had the most plate appearances among backstops in 2023 (687 to 611 lead over William Contreras).
The 2019 No. 1 overall pick also has the most PAs since his big league debut in May 2022.
In fact, he has nearly 70 more than MJ Melendez during this time (who only started 7 games at catcher in ‘23). Adley has over 100 more PAs than Will Smith since his call-up, and nearly 200 more than JT Realmuto, who ranks 4th.
Rutschman just finished his age-25 season. He’s firmly in his prime and should continue handling a huge workload in the coming years.
His spot in the lineup helps too, as Rutschman hit first or second in 149 of the Orioles’ 162 regular season games this season.
He receives even more of a boost in OBP formats, thanks to his position-leading 13.4 BB% in 2023.
2. Will Smith, Dodgers
I just want to point out how consistent he is — Will Smith has been a top-3 roto catcher (both AVG and OBP leagues) in every season since he became the starter in 2021.
As CBS’ Scott White points out, it continues to feel as if there’s one more level he can reach, so it’s also worth noting that he’s about to enter his age-29 campaign.
In other words, he’s older than it feels.
Smith also played through rib and oblique injuries in the first half of the year. While that might provide excitement for how he could perform with a full season of good health, Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman reminds us that playing through injury often leads to disappointing results the following year.
Smith is still great. I have him 2nd for a reason. I’m just adjusting ceiling expectations and might be more interested in chasing upside via Rutschman or the next player on our list.
3. William Contreras, Brewers
Most of Contreras’ early-season highlights were due to his defense, which Foolish Bailey so eloquently covers in this video:
This isn’t what many expected when the Brewers acquired him as part of the 3-team Sean Murphy trade with the Braves and A’s.
In Atlanta, Contreras slugged .506 with a .228 ISO as a first-time All-Star in 2022. He popped 20 homers in just 97 games.
Then he hit just 17 in 141 games with Milwaukee.
More defense and less power? Unexpected, but that’s exactly what happened. His offensive results can be explained by a much improved strikeout rate:
Furthermore, Contreras played a lot in his new home. He made 29 starts at DH in addition to his 108 starts behind the plate. Only Rutschman finished the year with more plate appearances.
2024 will be Contreras’ age-26 campaign. He’s only been a full-time starter for one season and finished as the No. 1 catcher in roto. We’ve seen him succeed multiple ways offensively. And the Brewers will continue to play him as much as possible.
So he’s a priority target for next year, especially if there’s an ADP gap after Rutschman and Smith.
4. Sean Murphy, Braves
Through the season’s first half Murphy looked like an absolute world beater, particularly at one of fantasy’s weakest positions.
1st half: .306/.400/.599 (166 wRC+)
2nd half: .159/.310/.275 (69 wRC+)
Murphy had a hamstring injury in June, but there’s no mention of it being an issue that plagued his late-season performance.
I’m therefore not willing to hand wave his struggles away, and treat the first half as if that was “who he really is.” Instead, this looks like a case of full-season statistics being more predictive than partial-season stats.
But a weak second half isn’t even what prevented Murphy from a standout fantasy performance.
When you look closely at the top-10 catchers from 2023, you quickly realize that Murphy is the only one below 495 plate appearances.
And he only had 438!
Similar to Smith, Murphy is going to be entering his age-29 season. So while I’m not as confident projecting a significant skills jump, we need to recognize what could happen if the Braves began cutting back on Travis d’Arnaud’s playing time, especially given their overall lineup context.
Murphy is even more valuable in OBP formats, thanks to an 11.2 BB% that ranked 5th among catchers in 2023. Give him a slight bump in this format, where his ceiling case truly comes into play.
7. JT Realmuto, Phillies
We’ll start with the positive, which is that Realmuto led backstops in steals for the fifth straight season in 2023.
Unfortunately, we also began seeing cracks in the performance of a former elite player at his position.
Realmuto hit .252 with a .310 OBP this year, which were both middle of the pack among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances.
His 102 wRC+ was his lowest mark since 2015. His 25.6% strikeout rate was a career-worst.
Still, JTR is aging gracefully for a catcher. This past season he combined an above-average 11.2% barrel rate with a career-high 42.4% fly ball rate.
This reminds me of Salvador Perez from recent seasons. Realmuto’s rate stats are in decline, and his age can be considered worrisome, but he’ll still play enough to keep compiling counting stats.
I typically advise cashing out on a Realmuto-type profile a year early rather than a year late, but I roster him on a dynasty team built to win now and am comfortable running it back for his age-33 season.
8. Yainer Diaz, Astros
In many ways Diaz profiles like this year’s William Contreras — a young catcher who raked while splitting time, and one who the fantasy community hopes will be in an everyday role next season.
Diaz received 377 PAs in ‘23 (21st among catchers), less than Dusty Baker-favorite Martin Maldonado (407).
While Maldy posted a 66 wRC+, Diaz slashed .282/.308/.538 with outstanding batted ball metrics:
The 25-year-old Diaz won’t be mistaken for a patient hitter — he swings early and often, and usually does a lot of damage upon making contact. Luckily, his hit tool is good enough where the strikeout rate is kept in check.
Maldonado is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If he leaves, the enthusiasm for Diaz will reach a fever pitch. If Maldy stays, then Diaz will still be a fantastic upside-selection for 2024 fantasy leagues.
9. Bo Naylor, Guardians
Hand up, I didn’t realize how impressive Naylor’s late-season run was with the Guardians.
I’m used to seeing rookies improve throughout their initial call-ups in the majors, but Naylor was on a truly torrid pace down the stretch:
Through 8/18: .179/.267/.325 (66 wRC+), .145 ISO, 10.7 BB%, 28.2 K%
Post 8/19: .321/.434/.679 (200 wRC+), .358 ISO, 16.2 BB%, 16.2 K%
He did it by improving his chase rate, which is also common for rookies in their initial cup of coffee:
To be clear, Naylor’s numbers after August 19th can’t be treated as the norm, but even including his initial struggles we get a 124 wRC+ overall.
He became Cleveland’s primary backstop during this time, which means we can project him as the 2024 starter barring an unexpected signing.
He has top-5 ranking potential this time next year.
15. Logan O’Hoppe, Angels
O’Hoppe didn’t play much in 2023 due to a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he was awesome when active.
Among all hitters with 100 batted ball events, O’Hoppe tied for the 9th highest barrel per plate appearance.
It’s encouraging that he continued to rake even after the shoulder surgery, but that’s a major operation and something to keep in mind with his long-term valuation.
While Diaz and Naylor are preferred, O’Hoppe makes sense as a target for dynasty managers trying to move off of an aging backstop.
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