Dynasty Outfield Rankings Takeaways (Part 1)
"Juliooooo!" at the top; bullish on Michael Harris, Seiya Suzuki, and Lars Nootbaar
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty outfield rankings.
The full rankings, including position-by-position lists and the Top 100 overall, can be found on Patreon here.
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1. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
“Julioooooo!”
Goddamn that’s so much fun to say/tweet/type to your buddies whenever he homers or makes an all-around great play.
Ranking first among outfielders is no small feat as the position is extremely top-heavy, both from a redraft and dynasty lens. When there are this many superstars to choose from we can look at age as a separator. That removes Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper from the tippity top of the ranks, but leaves J-Rod, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña, Yordan Alvarez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Sooo yeah that doesn’t exactly narrow it down much.
Julio gets the top spot among that group for a few reasons. First, his style of play makes him less injury prone than Acuña/Tatis, whose willingness to play without fear has worried me for a few years now. A couple of seasons ago it was why I ranked Soto above them.
Meanwhile, Alvarez has an interesting claim to the top spot if your league incorporates OBP/SLG/OPS. He’s arguably the best pure hitter in baseball…as is Soto, who is coming off a down season and who I have some approach concerns over (mainly that his patience/eye at the plate limits his opportunities to mash homers).
Ultimately, you can’t go wrong with any of these 5 A-listers as your first-rounder in a dynasty startup. I lean Julio since he’s a tad younger than Soto/Yordan and less injury prone than Acuña/Tatis. That’s really it. Oh, and so I can hit the group chat with “JULIOOOOO” whenever he does something amazing.
6. Aaron Judge, Yankees
Fresh off a 62-homer campaign and set to enter his age-31 season, Judge’s rank is more influenced by your team’s competitive window than anyone else being written up today. The more “win now” your roster is, the higher he climbs in the ranks.
He isn’t a screaming sell candidate for rebuilding squads, though. Unless you play in the deepest of leagues, a turnaround should be able to happen while Judge is still productive. As opposed to trading him for prospects, I’d try to get a younger star back for anyone shopping him - someone like Kyle Tucker, Rafael Devers, or Austin Riley as the base of a deal.
It’s my belief that in redraft leagues, Judge should be the 1.01 this year. I know he’s unlikely to steal 16 bags again, but that’s okay. He has the highest floor/ceiling combo of any four-category bat, and the league just had its lowest HR/FB% since 2014. The Juiced Ball Era is over. Power is scarce. Judge is the best power hitter alive. Case closed!
11. Michael Harris, Braves
The 21-year-old (!!) entered last season with a ton of upside but needing to work on his selectivity at the plate. And he did, catapulting from Double-A to the majors, appearing in 114 games with the Braves, hitting third for them in late-September, and slashing .297/.339/.514 with 19 homers and 20 thefts en route to winning National League Rookie of the Year honors.
And yet he was almost too good for the redraft community entering ‘23, leading to an inflated ADP and a tendency to label him as a bust candidate, even if the only reason he’s seen as risky is due to the lofty draft capital it takes to acquire him.
I admit his profile isn’t perfect. Among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7% chase rate was the 12th highest in the majors. He was just 21, though, and his swing selection improved throughout his time in Atlanta:
Additionally, we know the raw power is in there. Here are Harris’ exit velocity ranks by cluster:
Max EV: 80th
95th percentile EV: 26th
Average EV: 143rd
This is astonishing. It means his average exit velocity is dragged down by a bunch of mishits (likely due to him chasing out of the zone so frequently). We know that 95th percentile EV is very sticky, and if Harris can continue improving his swing decisions, then his upside could be massive.
He’s the first young gun in my dynasty OF ranks following 10 straight proven vets, and I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss him in redraft due to the plate discipline concerns. The tools are there. Maybe all the good changes don’t come right away, but long-term this is a potential top-5 (overall) fantasy player.
15. Jackson Chourio, Brewers
An aggressive rank for my No. 3 overall prospect.
While I totally understand win-now teams needing Arozarena/Schwarber/Reynolds types to fill out a roster, it’s hard to realistically imagine trading Chourio for anyone I have ranked below him.
The reason isn’t due to what he is right now — a 19-year-old (in early March) who lit it up at Low-A while playing in hitter-friendly environments before coming back down to earth at High-A (and then downright struggling in a cup of coffee at Double-A).
This is also a former contact-first prospect who began selling out for big-time hacks in the strike zone to achieve his breakout. While it worked, there are holes in his approach and he’ll need to continuously work on his in-zone contact to reach his ultimate ceiling.
The reason for this rank is due to what Chourio could become. This past season he posted the 3rd highest wRC+ for an 18-year-old at High-A since at least 2006. He was also one of 5 players since ‘06 to hit 20+ homers in his age-18 season while playing entirely above rookie ball.
Adjusting for his age, Chourio’s performance in 2022 was historic. He’s younger than Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones, and yet he reached Double-A to end the summer. Chourio’s upside is becoming the next Julio. We can’t be certain he’ll make that leap in ‘23, becoming the unquestioned No. 1 prospect in the sport once Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll graduate.
But this is a contingency based upside ranking. I’m willing to be wrong on him if it doesn’t work out. I’m not willing to miss out on what he could become.
18. Jordan Walker, Cardinals
I’m going to start with the disclaimer that everything could change if Walker lights it up at Cardinals camp in March, but as of mid-February I think we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves with his chances of being with the big league club on Opening Day.
For one, Walker has yet to play above Double-A. While some teams such as the Braves were hyper aggressive with promoting players straight from Double-A to the majors in 2022, not every organization subscribes to that philosophy and the Cardinals have always leaned a bit old school in that regard.
Secondly, baseball fans are used to shrugging at the idea that a top prospect needs more time to work on his defense in the minors. It’s historically been an excuse by front offices to delay service time. However, if there was ever an elite minor league who needed more seasoning defensively, it would be Walker, who moved from third base to the outfield this past August. The transition should be fine long-term, as evidenced by his plus-plus throwing arm at the Arizona Fall League.
At the plate, Walker never slumped in 2022. His worst OPS by month was .817 while his worst batting average was .290. This was all despite never facing a pitcher younger than him. Walker’s “tools” are going to pop once we start getting consistent Statcast data on him — the exit velocities, aforementioned arm, and even his sprint speeds are all going to generate buzz. I’m anticipating some swing-and-miss inside the zone due to the aggressive hacks he takes, but the expectation is he’ll punish enough mistakes to be an impactful big leaguer. Just don’t count on that happening in April.
24. Seiya Suzuki, Cubs
Had to include my ranking for Seiya before wrapping up, as he’s one of my favorite picks in every format this offseason — redraft, dynasty, and Underdog. Here’s the cliff notes:
31. Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals
The Lars Nootbaar Fan Club means business, man.
Another classic “Cardinals Way” development story, Nootbaar was off to a rough start in ‘22, posting a 52 wRC+ with a 30% strikeout rate through July 10th.
Then from July 11th through September 2nd he went bonkers, slashing .295/.423/.605 with 10 homers, an 18.4 BB%, a 14.7 K%, and a 186 wRC+ in 168 PAs.
I was all the way bought in, believing that his offseason Driveline training to improve bat speed was paying off in a big way. By year’s end his max exit velocity had spiked from 109.5 mph in 2021 to 113 mph a season ago. His barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity were all up as well.
Unfortunately, he cooled down to end the year, hitting just .185 with a 21.3 K% over his final 94 PAs, ending his chances of becoming an all-time fantasy baseball league winner.
I’ll argue that his true talent level remains a bit of an unknown as this is a young player who is clearly taking it upon himself to improve each winter. He isn’t as good as his July/August scorcher, but he isn’t as bad as his April/September numbers suggest either.
Cards manager Oliver Marmol said in December that the 25-year-old will play the outfield every day in 2023, so I like taking a chance on a rapidly improving skill set at this point in the ranks. He’s simultaneously a bit of a sell high candidate for any manager with strong outfield depth, but beware the Nootbaar Fan Club’s wrath if you even think about dealing him away right now.
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