Dynasty Second Base Rankings Takeaways

McLain surging, Gorman and Gelof improving

Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty second base rankings.

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5. Matt McLain, Reds

I last wrote about McLain as part of a rookie report in early August and noted how impressive it is that he sprays the ball all over the field:

While not a perfect comp, this particular skill reminds me of Bo Bichette.

Like Bo back in 2019, McLain had a mighty impressive debut season. Among rookie bats with at least 300 PAs McLain finished top-6 in batting average, ISO, and wRC+. He also swatted 16 homers and swiped 14 bases in just 89 games.

What’s interesting about McLain’s plate discipline is that he has a career 15.4 BB% in the minors, but walked just 7.7% of the time with the Reds last year.

He tied for the 4th-highest called strike rate in ‘23 (min. 400 PAs), and also swung and missed a lot compared to other bats with high called strike rates. He doesn’t chase much, which is good, but he takes big hacks in addition to passing at a lot of strikes.

Then there’s the .385 BABIP, the highest among second basemen last season. It came with a 90th-percentile sprint speed and a .328 career MiLB BABIP, so there’s reason to believe he could consistently post above-average marks, but slight regression should still be expected.

Finally, a 10.8% barrel rate is another reason for optimism, especially since McLain plays his home games in Great American Smallpark. Based on the limited sample size and (possibly fluky) underlying metrics, we don’t yet know his true talent level. This typically leads to youngsters being overdrafted in fantasy, but McLain’s surrounding environment is strong enough that he could climb into the top 3 at the position this time next year.

9. Ha-Seong Kim, Padres

Kim is another second baseman I wrote about in August of last year. It was during the hottest stretch of his big league career and was quickly followed by a September collapse.

Fantasy managers seem to be remembering the good times, however, as Kim is being taken on average as the 81st player in January NFBC drafts.

That’s because 17 homers, 38 stolen bases, and triple eligibility in the infield (2B/3B/SS) are worth quite a bit — there are many “levers” for him to pull where he can contribute to your roster.

Let’s start with the long balls. As Ryan Bloomfield points out, Kim hit 17 homers on just 18 barrels last season. Over half of his barrels were pulled, but that isn’t the same rate at which the biggest “pulled fly ball” over performers wind up. For instance, Isaac Paredes was at 91%.

Kim’s strategy is to lift and pull, which lets him over-perform some expected stats, but even within that skill set he might’ve gotten lucky last year:

All this is to say I’m expecting more like ~14 homers in 2024, which is something a good projection system could’ve easily told us. I also don’t love that he plays half his games in Petco, but at least he isn’t a left-handed bat in that park.

The stolen bases are more likely to sustain as Kim increased his rate of SB opportunity rate from 6.2% in 2022 to 17.9% in 2023. Thanks, new rules!

Add in improved selectivity at the plate, and the aforementioned triple eligibility, and Kim makes sense for a lot of builds when managing a fantasy team throughout the season.

11. Nolan Gorman, Cardinals

By the end of spring training last year I became quite intrigued with the Cardinals’ slugging second baseman.

Gorman talked openly about closing a hole at the top of the zone to counter high fastballs. Here are his zone wOBA results from 2022:

And here’s 2023:

The changes seemed to work as Gorman combined them with a 97th percentile barrel rate and a decreased chase rate that helped increase his ISO from .194 as a rookie to .241 last season. Only Mookie Betts ranked higher among second basemen.

Gorman is going to be a drain in OBP and especially batting average, but there’s 30-homer upside as early as 2024. He doesn’t turn 24 until May, so further plate discipline improvements should be expected in the coming seasons.

Somewhat written off after a volatile 2022 debut, I don’t have worries about Gorman’s bat. The bigger question is for how long he’ll hold onto his invaluable 2B eligibility.

12. Edouard Julien, Twins

I love Julien’s game. Among hitters with at least 400 PAs last season, he finished with the 5th-highest walk rate and the 17th-best wRC+. Both marks were tops among rookies.

He’s fascinating, though, because he’s so good at what he does well. Yet his deficiencies are potentially quite problematic.

Starting with the good — Julien is one of the best OBP assets in fantasy baseball and he crushes right-handed pitching. Among hitters with at least 350 PAs versus right-handers in 2023, Julien’s wRC+ ranked 10th in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, Julien struggles against southpaws. He posted just a .649 OPS against them in the minors in 2022. In 2023 the Twins gave him just 48 PAs against lefties, and he recorded a .447 OPS.

It’s too early in his career to consider the 24-year-old a strict platoon player, but it’s clear he has a lot to overcome. The situation is worsened by Rocco Baldelli’s preference for platoons, even mid-game. I can recall several instances last season where Julien led off against a RHP, and was pinch-hit for in the first few innings. Season-long playing time is therefore an issue, but it’s also a problem for weekly and even daily lineups as well. And that’s without even mentioning his defensive limitations.

Ultimately, these rankings are for OBP leagues and I want exposure to Julien in those formats. His playing time will be the biggest thing to monitor throughout 2024.

13. Zack Gelof, A’s

Gelof was fantastic as a rookie, finishing with the 7th highest OPS among second basemen with at least 300 PAs.

He never truly slumped during his time in the bigs, but his ISO did begin tailing off following a white-hot month of August. I only mention this because during that heater Fangraphs’ Tess Taruskin pointed out that Gelof’s flat bat path is suited particularly well for fastballs, which he crushed when making contact:

I specifically mention “when making contact” because Gelof’s zone contract rate was the 6th lowest in the majors last season.

And we saw him struggle against changeups and curveballs:

This isn’t a total cause for concern because, as mentioned, Gelof was overall awesome. He hit 14 homers and stole 14 bases in just 300 PAs. He had an 11.1% barrel rate. He’s consistently performed in the minors and should keep improving as he enters his age-24 season. I’m betting he gets fed fewer fastballs in 2024, which could ding his power output, but the playing time should be there and there’s 30-steal upside over a full season.

27. Vaughn Grissom, Red Sox

Still just 23 years old, Grissom became somewhat of a forgotten man throughout 2023. He impressed in a late-season big league promotion in ‘22, and the fantasy community therefore anticipated a regular role entering last spring.

Instead, Orlando Arcia seized the everyday shortstop job and never looked back. The Braves’ lineup stayed healthy and Grissom was limited to just 80 PAs in the bigs.

That’s the letdown.

The positive is that he slashed .330/.419/.501 as a 22-year-old getting his first taste of Triple-A. Remember, he was promoted to the bigs directly from Double-A in ‘22!

Grissom had a 12 BB% and a 14.1 K% at the level, which is fantastic plate discipline. Following his trade to the Red Sox he’s now in the second-best park for overall offense according to Baseball Savant.

I’m convinced we’d think of him much more highly if he had never “failed” us before. A potential lack of hard-hit impact keeps him in this range of the ranks for now, but he’s shaping up as a genuine buy-low entering 2024.

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