Dynasty Shortstop Rankings Takeaways
Should we worry about Wander Franco? Where do all the prospects rank?
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty shortstop rankings.
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3. Wander Franco, Rays
Evaluating Wander this offseason reminds me of Vlad Jr. entering 2021. That isn’t to say Franco will finish 2nd in the AL MVP voting this season, but it’s a similar situation with a highly touted young player who has yet to live up to expectations at the big league level.
Of course, that “disappointment” is only because expectations were so high to begin with. Franco has a career 116 wRC+ in 153 big league games through his age-21 season. Most players his age are still at Double-A. As a rookie in 2021 he tied Frank Robinson for the longest on-base streak (43 games) for a player age 20 or younger. He showed flashes right away.
And yet his 2022 was frustrating. Franco was on fire to begin the year - slashing .331/.355/.525 with a 4 BB% and a 9.7 K% through mid-May. Then he dealt with a hamstring issue and missed most of June due to a quad injury. From May 10th through July 9th he hit .183 with a 54 wRC+. Upon returning he batted 322/.381/.471 with a 9.3 BB% and a 7.2 K% to close his sophomore season.
Franco is now tailoring his offseason workouts to improve his flexibility after having those leg muscle issues last year. That’s a little thing, but it’s a reminder how young players often take time to adjust to life in the major leagues.
I understand concerns that Franco might wind up as only plus and never plus-plus, but there’s still a ton of value in that. The key for him reaching his ceiling would be tapping into his pull-side power a la Jose Ramirez. Presently, Franco is a gap-to-gap line drive hitter while his best fantasy skills are batting average and runs. You shouldn’t expect that profile to necessarily swing fantasy leagues. But the floor is so high, he’s still so young, and there are paths for him to elevate into a higher tier one of these years down the line.
8. Corey Seager, Rangers
You’re going to hear a lot of talk this spring about why the shift ban is going to help Seager in particular, most of which I agree with.
However, it’s essential to recognize that Seager was going to be due for positive regression in his batting average either way.
BABIP 2015-21: .336
BABIP 2022: .242
That is a significant difference, and it’s the primary reason he hit just .245 last season. He did appear to be selling out for more power, which led to a career-high 33 homers, but he’s simply too good of a hitter not to rebound with his batting average.
Now in Year 2 with the Rangers and entering his age-29 campaign, I could see a career-best season out of Seager in 2023.
13. Oneil Cruz, Pirates
One of the most volatile redraft picks for 2023, Cruz is much more interesting to me in dynasty formats since managers can sit on him for several years while hoping for incremental improvements. If I had to bet on a positive outcome for how Cruz’s career plays out, it would be by getting a little better in certain areas each season and not necessarily through a superstar breakout campaign in ‘23.
This is because he’s starting from such a low point with his strikeout rate (34.9% in ‘22). And yes, it improved down the stretch, but it was also because the Pirates stopped playing him against lefties. Against southpaws last season Cruz had a 53.2 K% (!!!). This leads to concerns about playing time, in addition to my worries about his runs+RBI production with Pittsburgh.
If you roster him in dynasty start hoping for those marginal improvements year after year. He needs to lower the K% and tighten the difference between his average exit velocity (91.9 mph) and his 95th percentile exit velocity (113.8 mph). There were too many mishits last season even when he did make contact.
14. Anthony Volpe, Yankees
Volpe isn’t the toolsiest prospect we have, but scouts rave about his baseball IQ and often times those types of players turn out to be better than we think.
Volpe has a high chance of being a productive big leaguer. He grew up in New Jersey and played high school ball with Jack Leiter. In 2021 he led full-season minor leaguers with a 1.027 OPS and a 170 wRC+ by featuring a more uppercut swing. After the season he was a popular choice to be baseball’s No. 1 prospect entering ‘23.
That didn’t happen as he stumbled out of the gate this past spring, but as the weather warmed up so did his bat. From May 18th through September 1st he slashed .281/.368/.523 with a 140 wRC+ at Double-A. He then spent a few weeks getting acclimated at Triple-A.
Volpe has combined for a whopping 83 stolen bases over the past two seasons, though his scouting reports don’t mention elite speed. This could be due to a combination of his baseball savvy and minor league steals significantly increasing with the new rules.
I don’t believe Volpe is going to make the Yankees’ Opening Day roster as he could use some more seasoning at Triple-A. I also don’t think he’s in that super special, upper tier of untradable prospects for dynasty managers, though any return would need to be significant. Rotowire’s James Anderson recently compared Volpe’s ceiling to Marcus Semien, which I thought was an interesting comp.
18. Willy Adames, Brewers
Freed from Tropicana Field and its terrible batter’s eye for a full season, Adames took flight in 2022 - literally. His fly ball rate spiked to 45.9% last season, up from his career 33.9% mark entering the year.
The change in approach led to a career-best 31 homers, which ranked second among shortstops. It also came with a .278 BABIP (and a .238 AVG), but Adames is suddenly a sneaky power source entering his age-27 season.
19. Jackson Holliday, Orioles
As mentioned in my 2023 FYPD rankings piece, Druw Jones did nothing to lose the top spot after he suffered a shoulder injury in his first pro AB. We simply didn’t see him.
But the drumbeat has been loud for Holliday coming out of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, two highly connected publications who consistently talk to league scouts and executives.
He reached Low-A by the end of ‘22 and posted an outrageous 15:10 BB:K ratio as an 18-year-old. That type of plate discipline, combined with pro bloodlines and plenty of physical projection remaining, is exactly what we’re looking for in high-floor, high-ceiling prospects. I’m taking Holliday 1.01 in my one FYPD where I have the top selection this spring.
21. Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies
There’s going to be a lot of discussion in spring training about which rookies have a shot to begin the year on Opening Day rosters. Tovar is someone I’m locking in.
Back in December Baseball America reported he was “tracking” towards being Colorado’s Opening Day shortstop. Then this past week Nick Groke of The Athletic wrote that Tovar will be the club’s everyday shortstop.
With just 14 career games above Double-A (and just 80 above High-A), fantasy managers should expect growing pains with Tovar. Coors Field will only help, though.
22. Royce Lewis, Twins
Lewis’ second ACL tear was one of the worst parts of the 2022 season. On the positive, he showed he’s big league ready and posted a 94th percentile max exit velocity during his brief tenure with the Twins.
I wanted to highlight him because he’ll reportedly be rehabbing until the middle of the summer. This is just a reminder to keep expectations in check for the entire year. I don’t think the Lewis we see in August ‘23 is going to be the Lewis we get in 2024 and beyond.
27. Amed Rosario, Guardians
I moved Rosario up 6 spots after further looking into his track record. However, the below praise comes with the caveat that his skill set is really only useful for traditional 5x5 roto leagues. For a non-superstar he’s basically perfect for them.
That’s because he has hit in the .280s in three of the past four years, and in his past three full seasons (so not counting 2020), he has gone for double digit homers and stolen bases. The year prior, 2018, he hit 9 homers and swiped 24 bags.
Rosario never walks, though, so for him to reach a ceiling outcome at this point in his career he’ll need to ride some BABIP luck to high OBP/SB totals. Be sure not to overlook him in roto formats.
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