Dynasty Shortstop Rankings Takeaways

Corey Seager and Jackson Holliday were historically great in 2023

Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty shortstop rankings.

The full rankings, including position-by-position lists and the Top 100 overall, can be found on Patreon here.

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3. Corey Seager, Rangers

Seager recently underwent surgery for a sports hernia and remains uncertain for Opening Day.

This is (rightfully) putting a bit of damper on his 2024 value entering peak draft season, especially since he’s missed chunks of time in the past.

However, if there’s an opportunity to buy at a discount, then dynasty managers should pounce. I understand why wRC+ isn’t the most marketable stat for MLB, but Seager’s historic 2023 isn’t being appreciated enough:

Seager’s most recent season was better offensively than prime A-Rod when adjusting for park and era. Oh, and then he hit .318/.451/.682 in the playoffs en route to his second World Series MVP award.

When active, he’s a cornerstone bat to build around for any dynasty squad.

5. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays

I think about player perception a lot when constructing dynasty rankings (in addition to when I consider my teams’ needs, trade offers, etc.)

I’ve been “anti-Bo” for a few years due to concerns over how his offensive game will age. Interestingly, he’s still hitting line drives all over the field but his speed has collapsed.

The decline in stolen bases affects his value, and shouldn’t be overlooked, but his ability to maintain a plus batting average is a major asset in 5x5 leagues.

His value isn’t as high in OBP, points, or H2H formats, but I remain interested in season-long rotisserie leagues. I view him as a “batting average anchor” in those, which is often even tougher to acquire than speed.

He still plays a ton, Toronto’s lineup should bounce back, and he’s only entering his age-26 campaign. You’ll want to think about moving on sooner rather than later in the coming years, but there’s still a strong use case for a player who is cheaper to acquire now than he has been in recent seasons.

6. Trea Turner, Phillies

It remains puzzling to me why Turner didn’t run more in 2023. Stolen bases erupted league-wide and the 30-year-old maintained a 100th percentile sprint speed.

One theory is he got off to such a slow start that he didn’t have as many opportunities to run, but 19 of his 30 thefts came in the first half.

Another idea, which Rotowire’s Jason Collette outlined in his NL East Bold Predictions column, is that hitting behind Kyle Schwarber limited his opportunities.

Turner’s 11.9% “stolen base opportunity rate”, which Rob DiPietro shared via his excellent Patreon, was well behind other top speedsters.

Ultimately, the fact that Turner went a perfect 30-for-30 on SB attempts has me wanting to buy in, including in ‘24 redraft leagues. I subscribe to the notion that league-wide stolen base efficiency was so high in 2023 that we’re likely to see another increase in attempts.

Therefore, Turner has 30/40 potential and he’s a power/speed upside play without needing to draw a top-5 pick in drafts. Similar to my views on Bichette, contending dynasty teams could have at least one more big season to benefit from.

8. Jackson Holliday, Orioles

The Orioles have the best prospect in baseball for the third consecutive season — a remarkable achievement.

Holliday’s rise to this point has been rapid, as he zoomed through four levels of the minors in his 2023 pro debut.

Holliday began the season in Low-A and ended it in Triple-A. In Double-A, where he spent 164 plate appearances, he posted the 6th-highest wRC+ for a 19-year-old since 2006.

Long past being known primarily as Matt Holliday’s son, Jackson is unusually polished for his age, and it makes sense when you get an inside look as to what his training “compound” looks like at home.

I’ll be a bit contrarian for this write-up and mention two things to keep in mind with Holliday, just because at this point in his prospect cycle there aren’t any more glowing remarks I can make that you haven’t already heard.

The first is that Holliday’s status as baseball’s No. 1 prospect stems a lot from his rare level of baseball maturity. I don’t mean for that to read as if he’s a floor-play over an upside bet — the upside is very high — but it’s something to keep in mind. Scouts are convinced he’s, at worst, a 10-year big-league player. When picking nits at the top of prospect rankings, that can sway things.

The second is that in 2023 Holliday hit all 12 of his homers against right-handed pitching (.989 OPS). Against lefties, he had a .776 OPS with zero homers.

That isn’t unusual for a young, left-handed hitter. Neither of these points are reason to fade him. It’s just important to paint the entire picture of who these prospects profile as, even when discussing the best players.

15. Willy Adames, Brewers

From 2018-22 Adames hit 94 homers and 147 barrels (64%).

In 2023, despite connecting on 49 barrels, he finished with just 24 homers (49%).

While all projection systems foresee a bounceback, it’s notable that Derek Carty’s THE BAT X (which incorporates Statcast data) is particularly high on Adames for 2024.

I’m guessing that Carty’s system sees the same thing — Adames deserved better luck on his barrels in 2023 and expects a healthy amount of positive regression. Entering a walk year, I’m into Adames as an affordable stopgap option for competitive dynasty managers.

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