Dynasty Third Base Rankings Takeaways
Manifesting a healthy 2024 for Royce Lewis
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty third base rankings.
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2. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
Through May 12th of last year, Henderson was batting just .170 with close to a 30% strikeout rate. It was easy to feel as if he was simply overmatched, but a closer look under the hood revealed he was just being too passive with his swing decisions.
At the time Henderson had the 8th lowest chase rate in the majors, which is good, but he also had a bottom-30 swing rate on pitches in the strike zone.
To reach his full potential, Henderson needed to be more aggressive. Mission accomplished:
From this point forward the rookie slashed .274/.321/.528 with 25 homers, nine stolen bases, and just a 24.6 K%.
Swinging more is good for Gunnar because he’s a great hitter. In ‘23 he had a 95th percentile hard-hit rate and a 91st percentile average exit velocity. Those metrics are a bit inflated due to a high number of his batted balls being hit directly into the ground (45% ground ball rate). But he still had an 11.4% barrel rate!
Among hitters with a similar ground ball rate, Henderson’s barrel percentage was higher than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. It was slightly lower than Julio Rodriguez’s.
From May 13th through the end of the season he ranked 15th in fWAR among position players, 14th in SLG, and 25th in wRC+. Henderson doesn’t turn 23 until late June this year and should only continue improving. He’s a fantasy stud in every format with dual eligibility for at least this season.
6. Royce Lewis, Twins
Sometimes you just know when an athlete has “it.” Royce Lewis is one of those players.
From 2020-22 he played in just 46 professional games, and all of them came in ‘22.
He lost all of 2020 due to the pandemic and since then has torn his ACL twice and suffered an oblique strain this past July. Each time, he has seemingly come back stronger, including a homer in his first major league game of ‘23 (exactly one year after he re-tore his ACL).
While Lewis hit well before last summer’s oblique injury, he was sizzling upon return, which included a stretch where he hit 7 homers in 12 games. Three of them were grand slams.
For his major league career, he has hit .307/.364/.549 with 17 homers and six stolen bases in 70 games.
Regression is likely coming. Lewis hit 15 homers on just 19 barrels in 2023, and his .393 wOBA out-paced his .351 xwOBA. His .354 BABIP might be unsustainable.
Then again, regression for Lewis doesn’t mean he’ll flop. It just means he’ll be very good instead of downright otherworldly. Young and talented players typically improve with more experience as well:
Your willingness to target him for 2024 might depend on your risk tolerance with injury-prone players. And I get that. I’m entirely out on the Buxton/Eloy/Bryant types at this point. But I still want to live in a world where Royce Lewis plays 150 games and I’m not ready to give up that dream. Sometimes young players learn to control their bodies better with more big-league experience. Bryce Harper comes to mind.
So much Royce Lewis analysis this spring will be about if he doesn’t stay healthy. I prefer to ask what if he does?
The answer is he could be a top-20 redraft pick at this time next year, and if he truly “hits” he’ll become an untouchable dynasty league asset.
10. Josh Jung, Rangers
There was a lot of talk last offseason about Jung’s strikeout rate from his brief cup of coffee in the majors. I did my best to note that Jung never showed those K% concerns in the minors and was coming back from major shoulder surgery in ‘22.
Jung’s K% predictably improved last year, but it never reached his previous minor-league results and finished at 29.3% overall.
As Geoff Pontes and Dylan White note in Baseball America’s dynasty third base rankings, “Jung’s once-refined approach and above-average contact skills have given way to a power-first mentality.”
Jung’s 11.9% barrel rate is impressive, but he’s going to need to maintain it based on the plate discipline he’s shown thus far. He doesn’t project to be a positive contributor in AVG/OBP or stolen bases, but luckily the Rangers’ lineup should only help with runs and RBI. Some improvements in his chase rate this season would go a long way toward establishing a safer long-term fantasy profile.
13. Noelvi Marte, Reds
Imagine if we knew back in 2022 (when he was a consensus top-20 prospect) that Marte would wind up in the best hitter’s park in the majors AND that he would be entering 2024 with a 35-game big-league sample where he hit .316/.366/.456 with three homers plus six stolen bases.
It seems like Marte’s fantasy value hasn’t fully recovered from a rough start to ‘22 where his body also bulked up. There was a lot of negativity around him at that time.
A 52.8% ground ball rate from his brief major league sample isn’t ideal, but it improved over time, and Marte also recorded a 115.6 mph batted ball — an elite maxEV that shows there’s real power upside in his bat.
A 7.9% barrel rate is fine. It’s clear Marte needs to lift the ball more, but he’s now playing in Great American Ballpark. The fantasy community is somewhat scared of a crowded core of position players in Cincinnati, but Marte’s talent should be able to overcome the situation. It’s a spot where talent will ultimately dictate playing time, not just the number of bodies.
I have him ranked behind win-now players like Nolan Arenado and Max Muncy, but that’s just due to my preference for creating ranks. If Marte begins 2024 like he finished last season the 22-year-old will likely crack the top-10 at his position by the All-Star break.
17. Isaac Paredes, Rays
Here’s a summary of Paredes’ skill set at the plate: he barely ever whiffs, doesn’t strike out much, draws a good amount of walks, and severely overperforms his expected stats.
What makes him unique is that he’s trying to outperform those expected stats.
By doing this:
Among hitters with at least 100 fly ball events last season, only Adam Duvall pulled them at a higher rate than Paredes. This is an approach that he combined with the 30th-best contact rate among qualified hitters.
Lots of contact + lots of pulled fly balls = maximizing your abilities.
If and when Paredes loses the ability to do this it could mean trouble for his fantasy usefulness, but he’s pulled it off for two straight seasons now, which led to a lot more playing time with the Rays in 2023.
Set to enter his age-25 season, Paredes is currently eligible at three different infield positions, which only adds to his appeal as an underrated player to roster.
21. Jake Burger, Marlins
Burger’s profile isn’t one I typically like to invest in for dynasty — a low-OBP slugger with plate discipline concerns.
The 27-year-old was the 11th overall pick back in 2017 and after a lost few seasons due to injury, he appears to be reaching his ceiling with the bat.
It’s tempting to say he’s already reached it, though. Among hitters with a similar ISO last year only Luis Robert came close to matching Burger with such a low walk rate and also a high barrel rate. Guys like Pete Alonso, Marcell Ozuna, and Adolis Garcia were able to walk closer to a 10% clip. (Burger was at 5.9%)
I’d like to see some more patience just so he isn’t so reliant on elite barrel rates and hard-hit results. The park and lineup context aren’t in his favor either. With situations like this, I like to let the market decide for me. If your league mates don’t believe at all, then acquire him on the cheap. If those you play fantasy with are convinced he’s legit, then I’d be looking to sell/fade.
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