Evaluating Fernando Tatis Jr.

Getting a head start on my 2024 valuation of a controversial superstar

We’ve reached the point of the 2023 fantasy baseball season where it’s okay to start looking ahead a bit to 2024.

Of course, if you’re still competing in season-long roto, or have some H2H playoff matchups coming up, then you’re absolutely staying locked into this year. As you should.

But it’s really about minor tweaks at this point. Most of the heavy lifting for 2023 has already been done.

And there’s a reason that next season is on my mind a bit, and it’s because Rob DiPietro and company recently began their second annual “Too Early Meatball Draft.” Here’s what the first 7 rounds looked like:

There’s so much to dive into here (Elly 18 overall! McLain Round 4! 5 SPs through 2 rounds!), and I will in time.

But I want to start with Round 1. And I think Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to be a key player to be right about next year. So much discussion went into what he’d look like in his return this season, so let’s review where we’re at, shall we?

Injury History

The first issue Tatis dealt with in 2021 was his left shoulder, which popped out twice during spring training and 3-4 more times (depending on source material) during the season. He ended up missing just 22 games due to the injury (32 missed games total, including a stint on the COVID IL), and he still led the National League with 42 homers.

He decided to not undergo surgery at the end of the year.

During the 2021-22 offseason, Tatis fractured his left wrist in a motorcycle accident. Due to the MLB lockout, Tatis couldn’t report the news to the Padres. The public didn’t learn about it until mid-March. He underwent his first surgery a couple days later.

On August 12th, 2022 it was announced that Tatis was suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s performance enhancing drug policy.

This was due to setbacks with the wrist and him trying to speed up the recovery.

Following the suspension, Tatis finally underwent shoulder surgery. He also has a second wrist procedure in October 2022.

Entering ‘23, Tatis appeared to be taking better care of his body — as detailed in this San Diego Union-Tribune piece. He attended offseason underwater training classes with teammate Joe Musgrove. And he focused on sliding feet-first once he returned this season.

Since Tatis’ initial return on April 20th, he’s been quite durable. Only Marcus Semien has more plate appearances (as of Thursday).

Offensive Production

The easiest way to assess Tatis’ return, relative to his pre-motorcycle accident self, is through his yearly wRC+:

• 2019 - 151

• 2020 - 151

• 2021 - 157

• 2023 - 116

Despite ‘21 being his first official “full season”, due to injuries and then COVID, Tatis was remarkably consistent until this year.

And he was consistently elite as well.

So let’s take a look under the hood, specifically at his plate discipline to start:

At first glance, a decreasing strikeout rate is a great sign, but the issue is it’s been driven by a swing (and chase) happy approach.

In other words, it’s hard to strike out if you’re always swinging out of your shoes early in the count.

Tatis’ reach rate is at the center of his season in my opinion. Not only does chasing more affect his strikeout and walk rates, but it impacts his batted ball data as well.

Tatis’ barrel% has been above 12% in each of the previous two seasons. It’s at 8.4% in 2023.

His hard-hit rate is at a three-year low. As is his average exit velocity, maxEV, xSLG, and xwOBA.

But that doesn’t mean he’s been bad. His barrel% is 77th percentile this year. In the remaining stats I just mentioned, he’s 87th percentile or better this season. He hasn’t been quite the outlier we’re used to, but he’s still been very good.

And then there’s the fact he has under performed his expected numbers.

Among all qualified hitters on Baseball Savant, Tatis ranks 2nd in SLG - xSLG under performers.

Savant’s batted ball metrics aren’t all predictive, but it’s reassuring to know that he has “deserved” better results thus far. He even has a .297 BABIP compared to a career .331 mark, so I’m not sure I buy his .261 average this season.

I once again come back to his aggression. The chase rate is too high, which is leading to fewer barrels and less walks. It makes sense why he’s chasing — it’s his first year back from a year-plus layoff. He’s eager. He’s re-familiarizing himself with major league pitching. He’s pressing a bit. As we recently saw with Trea Turner, that can change in a hurry.

Defensive Value

I’m not going to spend too much time on this section, since it doesn’t affect fantasy too much (and because Fangraphs’ Michael Baumann already wrote a great piece on Tatis’ defense here).

However, I do want to note that the 24-year-old has been one of the best outfielders in baseball this year, which is kind of wild considering how little exposure he had to the position before this season.

Tatis’ athletic tools made him (at times) an electrifying shortstop, but a horrendous rookie-year fielding percentage put a ceiling on his overall value unless he improved. Tatis made some incredible plays as a shortstop, but he routinely botched the simple ones.

The good news is his athleticism is still very present as an outfielder. He ranks 94th percentile in sprint speed, 99th in arm strength, and 97th on Outs Above Average.

If you prefer defensive runs saved, Tatis ranks first among all positions and it isn’t particularly close.

This tells me that while Tatis is still tinkering with his approach at the plate, he remains a world class athlete despite so many recent operations.

A 2024 Draft Value?

Looking back at the early ‘24 draft that Rob conducted, Tatis was selected 6th overall. It’s hard to say he’s undervalued at that price, and this was only one draft in a unique 15-team league. There’s an entire offseason to see where his ADP settles across various formats.

But even in Round 1, especially at the very start of drafts, we want to target historic upside. Tatis is going to be coming off a “down” year. That’ll make some people nervous. But it also presents an opportunity. Those who drafted Ronald Acuña in the top-3 this year feel vindicated by their boldness. Just ask anyone who took Turner over him.

Acuña’s 2022 is my comparison for Tatis’ 2023. The situations aren’t exactly the same, but in both cases we’re dealing with a player who has the skill set to be the 1.01 in fantasy, and each of them were coming off campaigns in which they weren’t operating at full strength.

If Tatis’ whiff rate sky rocketed this year, or if his maxEV wasn’t close to his previous highs, then I would want to exercise caution with investing in him for 2024. But that isn’t the case. He’s close to being who he was, and there are real reasons that make sense as to why he hasn’t been.

If anything, what he’s doing after a year off with multiple procedures is quite impressive. And it wouldn’t be surprising if he finished ‘24 as the number one player in fantasy baseball.

Don’t let his performance this year sway you too much. Take a wider view. Tatis doesn’t turn 25 until January. A healthy offseason could do wonders for him.