Hidden Pitching Values to Target in Dynasty
Notes on Kyle Bradish, Hayden Wesneski, and more
“There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.”
So why the heck am I writing about them today?
Of course, there are pitching prospects, including ones who succeed and become meaningful fantasy contributors. The saying that “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect” is typically used as a reason to build a team around hitters, both in real life and for our make-believe dynasty rosters.
For the most part, I agree with the sentiment. I certainly prefer stacking teams with stud bats who reliably produce each season with lower injury risk than pitchers. However, that’s only part of it. The other half of the reasoning is that, especially in today’s game, useful arms are easier than ever to identify early on — and for cheap. (#TeamStrider).
High-end pitching prospects are expensive! They’re volatile, too. Trading for them at their peak value is like buying crypto after the Matt Damon Super Bowl commercial. In other words, the asset has already been steamed.
Below are 4 young arms who I believe have enough hidden value that they should be trade targets in dynasty leagues this offseason. Not every one of these pitchers has ace-level upside, but not every acquisition needs to be a home run. Sometimes, acquiring a merely good pitcher is, in fact, good!
Stats entering Saturday, September 24th.
Kyle Bradish, RHP, Orioles
Acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade with the Angels, Bradish’s “thing” is approaching hitters from an uncomfortable over-the-top angle.
He got off to a very strong start in the minors this season, logging a 17:3 K:BB with a 1.20 ERA through 15 frames at Triple-A. Unfortunately, his first test in the bigs wasn’t as promising — a 7.38 ERA with a 13.2 K-BB% through June 18th.
That all but killed the enthusiasm for the then 25-year-old, even in dynasty formats. Bradish was sent back down to Triple-A before returning to Baltimore at the end of July.
You might’ve missed the transformation since then, but it’s been glorious. In 11 second half starts (64 IP), Bradish has a 2.67 ERA with a…14.8 K-BB%? ERA can be noisy in a small sample size and that K-BB% is awfully similar to his first half results. The difference in xFIP (4.02 to 3.80) is just as miniscule.
However, Bradish’s results are even better if we just look from August 26th on — a 1.64 ERA with a 13.9 K-BB% and a 3.84 xFIP. At least by those two metrics, everything under the hood is still the same.
So why is there hidden value in Bradish? Well, last time I checked fantasy isn’t played via K-BB% or xFIP. I place a premium on those numbers, of course, but especially in a forward-thinking organization like Baltimore, there can be outliers when a pitcher has a deceptive approach angle.
Bradish’s most recent success has included him flipping the usage of his fastball and slider:
Furthermore, Bradish is putting himself in more favorable counts. In the first half of the season he had a first pitch strike rate of 54.2%. That number is up to 61.7% in the second half. We’ve also seen some ceiling games from the right-hander, with 4 starts of 7+ IP while allowing 1 earned run or less since August 26th. Two of those gems have come against the Astros.
Bradish might never profile as a high K/9 type, but that could keep his cost depressed in fantasy. The “meh” season-long numbers should help in that regard as well. Still just 26, he’s continuing tinkering with his pitch mix. Expect serviceable rather than ace numbers, but he seems to be a tweak away from realizing some of that hidden upside.
Hayden Wesneski, RHP, Cubs
Chicago acquired Wesneski from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline in exchange for reliever Scott Effross. The 24-year-old has since gotten off to a favorable start in September, pitching to a 2.45 ERA (3.16 FIP) with a 23.8 K-BB%.
That’s great! It’s a small sample, of course, but it’s backed up by how good he looks in Eno Sarris’ Pitching+ model, which is your go-to place to validate small samples.
High-stakes redraft players are already familiar with Wesneski thanks to that Colorado/Pittsburgh two-step mentioned in Lance’s tweet. Those are obviously great matchups and Wesneski came through by striking out 13 while allowing just 3 ER in 13 1/3 IP.
Wesneski primarily wins with a sweeping slider that he learned with the Yankees (who refer to it as a whirly):
Unfortunately, his sinker and cutter aren’t generating the same success through 4 big league appearances. There’s a reason the Yankees made him available for a reliever. Wesneski needs to either add more (better) pitches, or improve the non-slider offerings he already has. If he does, then that hidden upside could hit.
Brayan Bello, RHP, Red Sox
Similar to Bradish, Bello’s first big league impression was a bad one for fantasy managers. As a Boston resident, I’ve advocated for Bello numerous times already. I’m witnessing the development up close. He’s a great example of how quickly some fantasy managers move on from a disappointing debut.
Bello’s first 4 starts resulted in an 8.82 ERA (with a 3.91 FIP, which we’ll get to in a minute). Then he got hurt in the 5th start.
In 6 starts since returning, the 23-year-old has a 2.67 ERA with a 2.61 FIP and a 3.41 xFIP.
Side note: I’m oscillating a bit between FIP and xFIP. Throughout most of the Juiced Ball Era I’ve typically relied on xFIP since it normalizes the home run rate. But with the deadened ball, there’s a case to be made that pitchers might have more control over the number of homers they allow — not full control, but some.
FIP could also be more useful for pitchers who work east-west and generate soft contact, which is the primarily goal of the 3 arms we’ve discussed so far. We’ll dive deeper into this another time.
The difference in his season-long ERA vs FIP is enough to make Bello a “buy” in both dynasty and redraft next year. It should also be noted that he’s generating grounders at a 56.6% clip, which would rank 3rd among qualified arms if he had the innings to qualify. This number was above 60% in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2022.
Incredibly, despite being a ground ball specialist, the Red Sox have converted just 64.6% of the grounders he has generated into outs. That ranks 360th out of 373 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 pitches this season.
The poor rookie has a .400 BABIP to date (!), which would be the worst/unluckiest mark in MLB if he had the innings to qualify. Per Statcast, the defense behind Bello has been worth -7 outs above average, which is tied for the 8th worst mark in MLB! Positive regression is coming in 2023.
Lastly, note that Bello continues to play with his pitch mix down the stretch, including fewer four-seamers and more sliders. He’s even learning a curve from veteran teammate Rich Hill.
Bello is my favorite arm of the 3 discussed so far.
Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins
On August 22nd against Oakland, Cabrera had a dominant 8-inning start where he allowed no runs on just 2 hits and 3 walks. It was the last of a four-start stretch (22 2/3 innings) where he allowed zero earned runs. The breakout was happening, I thought.
Since then, the 24-year-old has struggled, registering a 5.06 ERA with an 8.9 K-BB% across 5 starts. The iffy command persisted with fewer Ks, which left him no chance.
But the talent is there. I mean, look at this….96 mph changeup?!
That looks like a pretty nasty pitch, so why isn’t it more dominant? One issue might be that it doesn’t have much velocity differential off his four-seamer since it’s thrown so hard. His four-seamer also isn’t that good.
And neither is his sinker! Cabrera’s pitches don’t generate much vertical movement either, so there’s seemingly no point to using his four-seamer if it’s so similar to his changeup.
If it was up to me, Cabrera would go full changeup-curve-slider until opposing hitters showed they could counter it. It seems possible considering the Marlins went through a similar transition with Sandy Alcantara. The change in pitch mix could transform Cabrera into a trustworthy fantasy option. Harnessing his command could turn him into a fantasy ace.