How the Orioles Built a Bullpen of Bullies
Yennier Cano, Bryan Baker, and Danny Coulombe join Felix Bautista as Baltimore's Core Four
I play in a relievers-only fantasy league. Yes, it’s as incredible as it sounds:
I’ve written about it before, as well as my preference for saves plus holds leagues, and it has forced me to keep a watchful eye on bullpens around the league. As opposed to sweating over the Diamondbacks’ closer for a 5x5 roto league, I’m more interested in pitcher skills - K/BB, Stuff+, pitch shapes - things like that. I want relievers who get saves and holds, yes, but most importantly I want RPs who are good.
As we enter Week 4 of my RP league, and as I continue to churn a few of my final roster spots, I can’t help but notice how many interesting names are popping up from the Baltimore Orioles. Their bullpen has been pretty dominant so far. Here are their league-wide ranks for some notable stats (entering Tuesday):
1.7 fWAR (1st)
3.00 ERA (4th)
3.17 FIP (2nd)
20.5 K-BB% (1st)
112 Stuff+ (3rd)
106 Pitching+ (tied 1st)
And the crazy part is they’re doing it with relative unknowns, aside from Felix “The Mountain” Bautista, but even he was a complete mystery at the start of 2022. This has led me to asking a very important question - what’s going on in Baltimore? Let’s investigate.
More than any other position, relief pitchers can pop up seemingly out of nowhere, become absolutely dominant for a period of time, and then revert to mediocrity. While it can sometimes make sense to pay for the best closers in free agency, it’s important to recognize that competent bullpens can be assembled from scratch.
It’s why rebuilding clubs should trade away RPs with multiple years of control still in hand, and it’s why every organization should have their own “pitching lab” to develop standout relievers, so that you don’t have to trade for another team’s excess.
Anyways, is this the life the Orioles are living these days? It seems to be the case, but 2022 was all about one man’s breakout, and by season’s end Omar had arrived.
Sometimes these “out of nowhere” developments stick, and that looks to be the case for Bautista, a 27-year-old mountain of a man who quickly ascended Baltimore’s bullpen hierarchy in a delightful 2022 campaign.
What made him so special right away is that nobody in MLB had a fastball that “dropped less” on the way to the plate. That has remained the case this year:
He’s thrown it at the fourth highest velocity in MLB in each of the past two seasons. He had the top splitter by Stuff+ in ‘22, and overall he had the 3rd best Stuff+ among relievers last season.
It took some time to get his feet wet in the bigs, but once he did Bautista went on a run from June 14th through September 6th that looked like this:
35 2/3 IP
56:7 K:BB
50 GB%
1.51 ERA
Command issues resurfaced down the stretch, but in general his arsenal is so overwhelming that he can afford the occasional walk.
According to Baseball Savant, the weak point of that ‘22 arsenal was his slider, which he threw 12.3% of the time but allowed a .364 wOBA on. So he’s ditched it in ‘23 in exchange for more splitters (which you’ll remember as the best splitter in baseball last season).
It’s early, but after posting a 25.7 K-BB% in his breakout year, Bautista checks in at 36.4% entering Tuesday’s action. We don’t need to spend any more time on The Mountain. You know he’s great. And he might be getting even better.
Yennier Cano, RHP, Age: 29
Cano actually has the worst Stuff+ in Baltimore’s pen according to Eno Sarris’ model, but he throws his pitches in good locations and Eno has discussed how the model sometimes struggles with changeups. And Cano’s changeup is filthy.
Cano’s sinker is also quite nasty, as Pitcher List’s Alex Fast notes above. I’m not 100% sure why Eno’s model doesn’t like his offerings, but I do know that when there’s a disconnect like this that it’s okay to instead look at the results. Here’s what Cano has done through 7 IP this season:
0.00 ERA
0.00 WHIP
9:0 K:BB
Can’t argue with that! According to Savant Cano’s changeup has a .054 xwOBA and an 87.55% whiff rate!! I’m guessing this is such a unique pitch that Stuff+ models are struggling to adjust to it.
His rise to prominence is particularly noteworthy because he was one of four arms the Orioles received in exchange for Jorge Lopez at last year’s trade deadline. The move was controversial at the time since Baltimore was surging post-rebuild, and “selling” felt like a step backwards.
With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see that the Orioles might’ve seen something in Cano. Lopez has bounced back in 2023, but he struggled down the stretch for the Twins.
Cano picked up his first save on Monday against the Red Sox, vicious post-K stare downs included. If Bautista is “the Mountain” then Cano is at least “Mountain lite.” He’s working his way up the leverage ladder and it’s noteworthy he got the 9th when Bautista needed a night off.
Bryan Baker, RHP, Age: 28
Here is someone who fares well in a Stuff+ model. Remember that list of very flat fastballs that Bautista led the league in? Baker is also on it, and only 13 pitchers in the league have a fastball with less four-seam drop than him.
That’s a nice starting point since Baker’s heater “only” averages 95.5 mph, over 4 mph less than Bautista’s. He combines it with a top-10 slider by Stuff+. This is because Baker throws it hard (87.3 mph) and with strong horizontal movement.
Those two pitches together are a really nice starting point, and then he also has a changeup that Stuff+ loves as well. And he throws everything in good locations.
As of Tuesday Baker has thrown 12 innings, which is the most among Baltimore’s relievers. He has the 2nd highest Stuff+ of the group, and the 4th highest K-BB%, trailing Cano, Bautista, and…
Danny Coulombe, LHP, Age: 33
The southpaw pulled off a pretty standard, modern day transformation this season. He took his really good breaking stuff, and he started throwing them all the time, at the expense of 91 mph four-seamers:
More sliders + a new sweeper - average fastballs = success.
Coulombe’s Stuff+ isn’t popping to the same degree Baker’s is, but it currently sits at 105 and the results are strong:
9 IP
1.00 ERA
1.99 FIP
29.4 K-BB%
That K-BB% is a top-20 mark among all relievers this season. Coulombe isn’t as other-worldy as the Mountain or Mountain-lite, but his success and role in Baltimore’s hierarchy show how deep this bullpen is.
Closing Thoughts
While the four names profiled above represent the current core of the Orioles’ pen, there’s also Austin Voth, Mike Baumann, Tyler Wells, and Keegan Akin, all of whom are relatively interesting. And this list doesn’t even include DL Hall, who’s currently starting at Triple-A but who many believe will once day wind up as a high-leverage pen arm. It also doesn’t include anyone else who might pop up.
After taking a closer look at these reclamation projects, it doesn’t appear as if Baltimore has a “type.” While teams like the Yankees and Cubs are teaching widespread sweepers across their organizations, the Orioles are taking several different approaches to building a bullpen.
The front office recently talked about how they felt expanding the left field wall prior to 2022 benefitted them, and it’s tough to argue with the improvement in their staff. Have they simply gotten better pitchers post-’21? Or are those pitchers (who might be better) aided by the wall, both physically and mentally. Here’s what Akin had to say about the changes:
“A lot of 2-0, 3-1 counts, I was like, ‘Here, let’s see how far you can hit it’ kind of thing,” Akin said. “You didn’t really think about it that much when you were pitching. But when it was 2-0 or 3-1 and nobody was on, you could be competitive. And a lot of those (hitters) kind of gave it all they got and some of them still couldn’t get it out. So, it was nice knowing the extra feet is out there on our side.”
The wall can’t be everything, though. The Orioles are changing their pitchers’ arsenals and discovering hidden talent ahead of time. They’ve invested almost nothing into one of the best bullpens in baseball. And it’s a huge part of why they’re going to contend in 2023 and beyond.