Hunter Greene Is Fully Evolving
The title of this piece was almost Hunter Greene Has Fully Evolved. It reads better — cleaner, more confident. If this were dropping around the All-Star break, I might've gone with it. But it’s early April. Today’s title reminds us that we’re still watching this transformation unfold in real time.
Yet I couldn’t help but write about Greene already. The early signs are too strong — velocity, command, results. It’s all starting to come together.
Across 2022-23, Greene’s four-seamer was among the hardest thrown in the game but returned terrible run values each year. MLB hitters can catch up to velo if it's predictable and poorly located. Things changed in 2024 despite reduced velocity on the pitch. That’s because he improved the shape of the offering.
Additionally, Greene introduced a splitter after primarily being a two-pitch starter in his first two seasons. His changeup had never graded well, but the new splitter paired well with his fastball movement:
Those red circles—imagine Greene’s upper-90s four-seamer cutting in that direction, toward 1 o’clock. Then the splitter mimics the same trajectory before tumbling off the table, 10–12 mph slower.
The threat of a pitch like that, even thrown just 8% of the time, was enough to help transform his heater into one of the best in baseball.
Fast-forward to 2025: Greene is throwing harder than ever without sacrificing much of the improved shape he found in 2024.
Just five pitchers are throwing harder than him at the moment, all of whom are relievers:
Ben Joyce
Justin Martinez
Mason Miller
Jose Alvarado
Jhoan Duran
Nobody is within a full tick of Greene’s 99.4 mph four-seamer among starting pitchers. For reference, Paul Skenes and Jack Leiter sit just under 98 mph.
The splitter is back for an encore, with a slight velo bump of its own. Then there’s the slider—graded as his best pitch by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model. It’s also up in velocity, though Greene has scaled back its usage through three starts.
Everything was clicking on Monday night in San Francisco, a favorable environment to pitch in. Still, Greene cruised through 8 2/3 innings on just 104 pitches. It was nearly a Maddux.
Unfortunately, there aren’t many actionable takeaways here for fantasy. Maybe you can float a trade in redraft or dynasty. In either format, I’d value Greene as a top-10 starter.
Pitching is always a weird balance. Don’t throw hard enough? You cap your strikeout upside. Throw too hard? You might get hurt. Honestly, they all might. Give me the utter dominance while it lasts.