Initial Impressions From the 3 Brew Crew Rookies

Thoughts on Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Joey Wiemer 10 days into the season

I picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central entering the season. Not only do they have established studs who project well, but the combination of Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Brendan Donovan gave them plenty of offensive upside on top of it.

Meanwhile, the Brewers sought offensive reinforcements this offseason, and though I liked many of their pieces entering this spring, I just didn’t feel they could match St. Louis’ firepower.

Roughly 10 days into the season, however, I view the Brewers’ lineup completely differently. This is entirely due to the contributions from 3 standout rookies. Below are my thoughts on them for fantasy baseball leagues moving forward.

Garrett Mitchell, OF

The 20th overall pick out of UCLA from the 2020 draft, Mitchell has always been viewed as an athletic player who scouts wanted to see tap into his raw power. My prospect notes on him include:

“80-grade speed, patient at the plate, but doesn’t drive the ball in the air. (choppiness in his swing).”

Mitchell dominated High-A in 2021 before hitting a wall at Double-A. He posted ground ball rates over 60% at both stops, which made it very tough to envision if he could hit for any power in the majors. Only Baseball Prospectus had him as a top-100 prospect entering ‘22, but at 94th overall.

He began last season by performing better at Double-A, earned a promotion to Triple-A, and then eventually got a cup of coffee in the majors. His GB% still hovered around 60% in the minors, and he struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances with the Brewers (though he went 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts). There wasn’t a ton to be optimistic about entering 2023.

Of course, Mitchell has started hot, slashing .286/.333/.714 through 30 plate appearances. The most encouraging development is his fly ball rate, which currently sits at 38.9%. I’ve yet to read anything about an intentional approach change, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. We also need to keep tabs on his strikeout and whiff rate. He’s in the bottom 8th percentile or lower in each stat.

Mitchell hasn’t stolen a base yet, but one figures that’ll change with his 97th percentile sprint speed and previous success on the base paths. If he has actually begun lifting the ball more consistently, then there’s major upside here.

Lastly note that Mitchell already improved his max exit velocity from 109.9 in 2022 to 112.3 this season!

Brice Turang, 2B/SS

The 23-year-old went out and won the team’s second base job in spring training - or at least the the strong side platoon of it. Turang has started 6 of Milwaukee’s first 9 games this year, sitting in all 3 matchups where the club has faced a left-handed starter.

Turang has still made the most of his opportunities, hitting .304/.407/.478 in the early going. The batted ball impact isn’t special with a 104.2 mph maxEV, but the young infielder appears to have an exceptional ability to control the strike zone. Through his first 27 PAs he has a 91.7 contact% on pitches in the strike zone. He also doesn’t expand the zone (74th percentile chase rate) and draws a healthy amount of walks.

There’s part of me that thinks Turang would’ve been better suited for the Juiced Ball Era, as one of the many middle smaller-statured infielders who could’ve popped 20 homers in 2019. Then there’s a side of me that thinks he’s perfect for the 2023 version of Major League Baseball, using his speed and athleticism to make rangy plays on defense and spray the ball all over the field against defenses who can’t shift him.

There are 2 things I want to monitor for Turang moving forward:

1. Can he move up in the batting order against RHP? Currently Yelich and Winker occupy the 1-2 spots, but this Milwaukee club is clearly in the midst of a youth infusion. I wouldn’t expect him to bat leadoff this week, but it’s at least a possibility for sometime this summer.

2. How often does he pull fly balls? We need a bigger sample before we even look at this stat, but it’s essentially a “cheat code” for lighter-swinging players to hit for power. It could determine if he’s a single digit HR bat or if there’s a chance for more.

Joey Wiemer, OF

Wiemer is another product of the Brewers’ 2020 draft, a fourth-round pick who arrived to pro ball with a vicious, all-out swing that many scouts thought would eventually give him trouble.

After opening eyes in the 2021 Arizona Fall League, Wiemer slumped at Double-A last summer, finishing the level with a 30% strikeout rate. He was then promoted to Triple-A Nashville where he performed much better (19.5 K%).

This season, he initially headed back to Triple-A but was recalled to the majors prior to Game 2 following Luis Urias’ hamstring injury. Brian Anderson shifted to third base while Wiemer has played either center field or right field in every game since.

Wiemer is hitting .296/.387/.481, and his surprisingly low 16.1 K% is backed up by his 9.8% swinging strike rate. Still, he’s chasing often and similar to Mitchell I’ve yet to read the right piece to sell me on an intentional change in approach (but if it’s out there please let me know!)

Wiemer also possesses a 94th percentile sprint speed, so there’s plenty of stolen base potential with the new rules. As of now I think it’s best to view him as a power-speed source who might hurt your batting average. Unlike Mitchell and Turang, who are being used exclusively as platoon players, Wiemer is a safer bet for everyday ABs.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, the best format to roster all three of these players is dynasty. That’s mostly because they’re young and can improve over time, but the deeper nature of dynasty leagues allows for more time to assess their strengths and weaknesses.

Each of them has a flaw, but also enough of a skill set to make them viable for fantasy if they can improve it. For instance, as of now I don’t think any are must-have in 12-team leagues that use 3 outfielders. 5-outfield formats, in addition to 15-teamers, are a different story.

For fun I’ll rank them Mitchell —> Turang —> Wiemer, for both redraft and dynasty. The Brewers enter Monday with a 7-2 record, thanks in large part to their upstart rookies. Perhaps there’s a spot for one or more of them on our fantasy rosters as well.