Jarren Duran Keeps Getting Better

Offensively and defensively, Duran has fully broken out in 2024

Back in 2020-21, when I started writing about fantasy baseball more seriously, Jarren Duran became “my guy.” The journey since then has been chaotic.

He was taken in the 7th round of the 2018 draft as a slap-hitting second baseman out of Cal State Long Beach. While at the Red Sox’ alternate site during the 2020 pandemic, Duran realtered his swing and was suddenly hitting for more power than ever to go along with 80-grade speed. He was an ideal fantasy prospect who was undervalued.

When Triple-A play resumed in 2021, Duran was on a tear, slashing .270/.365/.561 through the first half, with 15 homers and a .291 ISO. This validated everything for me. Duran was set to be a power-speed fantasy force hitting atop a potent Boston lineup in hitter-friendly confines. However, once he was called to Boston, he slashed just .219/.269/.354 (67 wRC+) with a 31% strikeout rate over the next two seasons. 

Consistent Improvement

The new rules from 2023 are well-suited to Duran’s skill set, rewarding speed and a willingness to run while weakening infield shifts against left-handed hitters.

It also helped that Duran began making more contact than ever before, lowering his swinging strike rate and K% for the second straight season, with the latter falling below 25%.

So far in 2024, he’s at 22% with a SwStr% below 10%. He’s adding even better swing decisions to last year’s contact gains, and some key long-term trends are moving in the right direction:

Fantasy-wise, Duran’s role as Boston’s everyday leadoff hitter helps the entire profile play up. He enters Friday having started all 81 games for the Red Sox this season. He has hit leadoff in 78 of them, and he now trails Anthony Volpe by just 5 for the most plate appearances in MLB. Duran is 9th in the league in runs and tied for 5th in steals, totals that are help boosted by his favorable role in Alex Cora’s lineup. Add in a .287 AVG and seven homers to date, and his five-category upside becomes obvious.

In my 12-team roto league, Duran has been the 10th-most valuable hitter, an extraordinary outcome for a player drafted outside the top 12 rounds of drafts this spring. His contributions have been even more impactful in a year that has seen fewer hitter breakouts than pitchers.

To give you an idea of where I’m valuing him right now, I recently traded Cody Bellinger for Duran in Dynasty. My Jared Jones for Duran trade offer in Redraft was declined.

A Completely Player

Reality-wise, Duran's most dramatic improvement in 2024 has been defensively.

Through 2023, Duran's transition to the outfield wasn’t going perfectly. He’s always had the speed to cover enough ground, but poor routes limited his upside. Thus far in ‘24, Statcast pegs him for a career-best “reaction,” which has helped improve his range and turned him into a premium defender.

This combination of creating havoc offensively, improving defensively, and hitting leadoff daily gives Duran the 10th-highest fWAR in MLB among position players.

While it feels like so much has gone wrong for the Red Sox this year, Duran and Tanner Houck, in particular, have been two keys keeping them in playoff contention.

In fantasy, we’re often drawn to the next rookie or top prospect who hasn’t burned us before, but Duran’s season is a reminder that players can keep improving as they enter their peak aging curves. It’s an important lesson to remember as we enter the grueling second half of the season.