Nick Pivetta: For Real This Time?

His 2023 results were outstanding

Fool us half a dozen times, shame on us.

The fantasy community has been here before with Pivetta. Entering 2019 he was going inside the top 150 selections of NFBC main event leagues.

Then he posted a 5.38 ERA in 93 2/3 innings.

In 2020 he was jettisoned from the Phillies to the Red Sox as part of the trade deadline return for *checks notes* Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.

While the Chaim Bloom era was mostly a failure, there’s renewed hope that this might’ve been one of his best moves.

In the years since coming to Boston Pivetta has continued to tease fans and fantasy managers alike. There have been spikes in performance, including the 2021 postseason, but it never lasted. Then last year happened:

So far in 2024, Pivetta is the 184th player selected in drafts, his most aggressive ADP since the ill-fated 2019 debacle. Is that justified? Will he let us down again? Or is Nick Pivetta for real this time? Let’s dive in….

Bullpen Demotion

By the end of 2022, Pivetta more or less was what he was. There were the performance fluctuations mentioned above, but his ‘21 and ‘22 stats were quite similar:

He was becoming Boston’s innings eater, and 2023 didn’t start too hot for him. Over his first eight starts, Pivetta was as inconsistent as ever, checking in with a 6.30 ERA and a 12.6 K-BB%.

Manager Alex Cora pulled the plug on his time in the rotation, sending Pivetta to the bullpen to mostly work in a low-leverage role for the next couple of weeks.

For the majority of his big league career Pivetta relied mainly on two pitches — his four-seamer and his curve. These two offerings graded out favorably by Stuff+ and worked well in tandem — fastballs up in the zone followed by loopy 12-6 curves that worked down.

However, this allowed opposing hitters to key in on one of them, and if Pivetta wasn’t commanding well on a particular day, then he was in big trouble. He needed an additional pitch, ideally one with some horizontal movement….

Sweeping Success

2023 was the Year of the Sweeper — so much so that the pitch’s league-wide effectiveness waned as more pitchers began throwing one, some of which weren’t good. Many of these pitchers arrived to spring training having worked on a sweeper in the offseason. Interestingly, that isn’t how Pivetta discovered his.

In a September conversation with Fangraphs’ David Laurila, Pivetta mentions toying around with a sweeper while playing catch with Chris Martin in early June.

Baseball Savant confirms his usage of it increased from there:

And the results were tremendous. Among sweepers that were thrown at least 100 times, he recorded the 2nd-best strikeout rate and tied for the 9th-highest whiff rate.

According to Statcast, his sweeper ranked third in xBA, sixth in xSLG, and third in xwOBA.

Pivetta also had the highest “put away” percentage among sweepers last season, indicating that for him it was a way to finish off batters who had grown used to the fastball and curve.

Hitters were expecting a vertical plan of attack from Pivetta and then boom, in comes the horizontal sweeper for strike three.

On July 17th he became the first player in MLB history to strike out 13+ batters in relief without allowing a hit.

Here’s how Cora explained it (from Ian Browne’s August 10th Red Sox newsletter):

“The game changer has been that cutter/slider/sweeper, whatever they put out there [on the scoreboard],” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora. “It gives him four pitches now. He has the fastball, curveball, the short [slider] and the big one, so it's hard to hit him now. It’s not just a vertical attack of fastballs up, breaking balls down. It’s something sideways, especially with righties. We always talked about his fastball; it always plays. There's confidence now, too. You can see it.”

The addition dramatically helped increase his arsenal. Through the end of May, he had an overall Stuff+ of 113 according to Eno Sarris’ model.

From June 1st through the end of the year, he had a 127 Stuff+, which ranked third in MLB among pitchers with at least 90 innings. Pivetta’s 112 Pitching+ during this time ranked second overall, trailing only Zack Wheeler.

Pivetta’s first “bulk” appearance out of the pen came on June 18th. Here are his league-wide ranks from that point on (min. 80 IP):

2024 Role & Expectations

It’s somewhat cheating to include all of these relief appearances in his stats down the stretch, especially when it comes to plate discipline numbers. It’s no secret that it’s easier for a pitcher to throw harder (and therefore perform better) in a short appearance. For most of the summer, Pivetta had the luxury of avoiding the top of a lineup and not needing to pitch as deep into games as traditional starters.

However, just four of his 21 appearances during this stretch were shorter than three full innings, and many appearances lasted 5, 6, or even 7 IP.

Beginning on September 6th he was used exclusively as a starter to close out the season. In five starts he posted a 2.37 ERA with a 38:5 K:BB in 30 1/3 IP. This was backed up by a 2.73 FIP and a 2.80 xFIP, proving that this iteration of Pivetta can start as well.

Boston’s 2024 rotation is still a little bit up in the air. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are in. Pivetta probably is too. Same with Kutter Crawford. The last spot, as of now, could go to Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, or another outside addition.

The combo of Pivetta’s 2023 usage with being surrounded by other hybrid arms suggests the team could go in several directions, but I’d imagine he’s initially used as a starter.

The 30-year-old attended Driveline last offseason and is doing so again this winter, so I’m choosing to be optimistic about his chances of further refinement.

Hitters will begin adjusting to his new plan of attack, which is where regression might come into play. We aren’t asking him to be a top-10 pitcher again, though. We’re asking for spike weeks in best ball and usability in managed, season-long leagues. Based on his current prices, Pivetta’s upside is a no-brainer to get some exposure to.

Fantasy managers have been burned before and might be nervous about buying in again. I’m confident that Pivetta is different this time, and I’m tempted to believe that he is for real.