Paul Goldschmidt Enters His J.D. Martinez Era

A free agency breakdown for the future Hall of Famer

My baseball group chat recently started our annual “free agency threads,” where we conduct deep dives into players about to hit the open market.

This exercise always gets me thinking about various factors related to each player—their own value, how the market will perceive them, and which teams are the best fits. This year, I’ve decided to use the research I’ve already done to turn it into articles, too.

Please note that we like to bounce between stars, scrubs, and everything in between, so the writeups won’t be released in any particular order.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Age: 37

When looking at wRC+, 2024 was Goldy's worst year at the plate. Since 2013, aside from '19 and '24, he's always been well above average with the stick.

There's a recent downward trend, especially factoring in the 175 wRC+ in 2022. That season, he significantly over-performed his expected stats, and it's essentially the only year he's ever done so.

This was likely because he had his career's highest pulled fly ball rate in '22. I don't know the degree to which his pulling fly balls was intentional versus how much was random. This nugget from Eno Sarris suggests it was on purpose. Regardless, he hasn’t done it at the same level since, and for my 2025 free agency analysis, I will treat that year as if it doesn't exist.

I'm willing to do that because the consistency of his other metrics extends through 2024. His barrel rate is 7%, down from recent years, but a mark he held around 2019-20, which aligns with his career average of 7.5%. So he's been here before and hasn’t yet bottomed out from a damage-per-batted ball event lens.

Then you factor in that, per Robert Orr’s metrics, his whiff rate against secondaries has remained steady — right around league average, over the past four seasons:

Baseball Savant helps us take it one step further with a recent trend of trading breaking ball whiffs for offspeed whiffs. It isn’t as if fastballs are completely blowing him away, though there’s been a recent uptick.

Goldschmidt chased more frequently in 2024, though he also swung more in the zone. It added up to a career-high swing rate overall, in addition to a career-worst BB%, and his worst K% since his 48-game debut in 2011.

Defensively, Outs Above Average graded him as essentially average. He was elite in this metric from 2019-21 but has only been above average once since.

His sprint speed remains in the lower-third percentile among all big-leaguers, but Goldy used his base-running savvy again to swipe 11 bases. He’s been successful on 41-of-43 attempts since 2021, an average of nearly ten steals per year.

Zooming back out, this league-average bat plays baseball’s least valuable position at an average level. It’s also a league MVP from as recently as three years ago. His batting eye is worsening, but the damage-upon-contact has remained steady. This could be the beginning of a downward trend that he never recovers from or a blip in an otherwise graceful decline. Perhaps there will be a JD Martinez-esque outcome, a fellow veteran who keeps surprising with a little more left in the tank. Like Martinez, Goldschmidt is likely headed for a string of 1-year deals to close his Hall-of-Fame career.

What’s interesting is there are some fun fits, especially if he’s willing to serve as a club’s primary designated hitter. For instance, if he ended up with the Red Sox as their right-handed power bat to try and take advantage of the Green Monster, he could spell Triston Casas at first base against tough lefties.

Other reasonable fits include the Astros, Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Mets. This assumes he’d prefer a potentially winning situation over maximizing 1B time or a slightly higher base salary for a non-contender.

I predict he “returns home” to the Diamondbacks on a one-year, $11.5 million deal. This assumes Arizona moves on from Christian Walker, a fellow free agent, this offseason.

Lastly, I’ll note that Goldschmidt’s best chance of getting a one-year deal from a contender is probably via the Astros. The scars from Jose Abreu’s sudden falloff remain, but a one-year pact helps mitigate the potential downside. I could see Goldy getting as much as $16 million to try and launch fly balls into the Crawford Boxes.

What say you? Feel free to predict the comments!