Paul Skenes Is Everything He Was Supposed to Be

Plus thoughts on valuing players in dynasty fantasy baseball

What makes a starting pitcher valuable in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues?

It starts with production. We want players who can immediately contribute positive fantasy stats to our teams. I believe dynasty is far more of a short-term game than many think (or are willing to admit). Managers should enter every season looking to compete. If and when things go sideways, pivot hard to reload for the following year. This is different from undergoing a long-term rebuild, and it’s a topic for another day.

Secondly, we care about future value. For every obvious “win now” piece like Charlie Morton or Justin Verlander, there are murkier situations, such as Zack Wheeler and Gerrit Cole. The latter duo still have future value, but their window to maintain it is shrinking. In a dynasty, we always want to remain mindful of building a roster that is ripe with future value.

Finally, trade value is the most underrated aspect of valuing players in a dynasty. Another term for trade value is optionality — the ability to make any move you want without feeling like you need to. A player like Elly De La Cruz has immense trade value. Everyone in every league wants a share of him. How about Freddie Freeman? Contenders would be interested, but that limits the pool of potential trade partners. While similar to future value, trade value is nuanced and eventually worthy of its own post.

Production

This brings us to Paul Skenes, the first-ever No. 1 overall pick to become an All-Star the following season. The 22-year-old has taken MLB by storm since his May 11th debut:

So there’s your production. This isn’t a talented young arm who could one day develop into an ace. From the moment Skenes first stepped on a big league mound, he’s been dominant.

Projection systems think it’ll last for the remainder of 2024. Only Jacob deGrom (in just 19 innings) projects for a lower ERA and WHIP than Skenes, per Steamer.

The situation reminds me of Tarik Skubal entering the year. This is fitting because when using Fangraphs’ auction calculator for my 12-team roto league, Skenes and Skubal are the two highest-value pitchers rest-of-season, thanks primarily to the expectation of immaculate ratios.

Future Value

Offseason projections will take precedence this winter, but we can use ROS projections as a proxy in mid-July. If Skenes is already looking like a top fantasy option for the second half of 2024, it’s safe to assume he’ll be in the mix as the No. 1 fantasy SP entering 2025.

When combined with his age and rookie status, the case for Skenes’ future value becomes evident. He’s already so good. Could he get better? Will he maintain this level of performance for a decade of dynasty league contention?

Since 2000, only Zach Duke in 2005 has had a lower ERA among qualified rookie starters, and only Francisco Liriano in 2006 had a lower WHIP.

Skenes’ WAR total isn’t as strong historically due to his lack of volume thus far. However, he pops when looking at strikeout and walk rates.

These are the three highest K% seasons by a rookie SP since 2000. Note the league-wide strikeout rate was much lower during Stephen Strasburg’s 2010 rookie campaign. When looking at K%+, which adjusts for era, Strasburg trails Liriano in the top two spots. Strider is fourth, while Skenes is sixth.

For rookie starters with at least 60 IP, Skenes’ K/BB+ is second since 2000, trailing just 2001 Roy Oswalt.

All this is to say that Skenes is having a historic rookie season, both by raw strikeout and walk rates, and even when we adjust for the era. We already covered how he’s been one of the best starters in MLB since his debut. Now we know he’s also one of the best rookies in recent memory.

The comparison to Strider is interesting for multiple reasons. Unlike Strasburg, Strider’s rookie year is in the same era as Skenes’, so there isn’t as much of a mental adjustment with the rate stats.

Furthermore, Strider was the No. 1 dynasty SP entering 2024. He didn’t have the same prospect pedigree as Skenes before debuting in the majors, but his dominance quickly became too much to ignore. The two mustachioed fireballers could eventually be SPs 1 and 2 once Strider is healthy, but for now, Skenes is firmly above him in dynasty ranks.

Lastly, it’s worth remembering that Strider didn’t win Rookie of the Year honors in 2022. That award went to Michael Harris. I recently wondered if Jackson Merrill could pull the same stunt over Skenes, which would convince me that starting pitchers are massive underdogs to win any ROY awards soon. Since then, Merrill slumped, while Skenes was named the fifth rookie to start an All-Star Game.

Trade Value

I roster Skenes in two keeper/dynasty leagues where I’m currently competing for the title. It’s, therefore, tempting to cash in — put him on the trade block and let the offers come rolling in. Do you want to trade for the best pitching prospect in at least a decade? Well, it's time to pay up.

But maybe I shouldn’t.

The value of Skenes in dynasty stems not only from the players you’d get for trading him but from the simple fact you could trade him at any time for anything. It’s like driving a new car off the lot or opening a sealed pack of baseball cards. Just because you can trade him doesn’t mean you should.

Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. were seen as the two best fantasy players just three months ago. Although they’ve since suffered season-ending injuries, they remain highly valuable in keeper formats.

This plays into the idea of trade value — we want players with built-in “off-ramps” when rostering them. Think of off-ramps as an escape hatch. Can I move on from this player if I want to? Will he maintain a certain level of value even if things go wrong? If Skenes were to undergo elbow surgery within the next year, I’m confident he’d still be a top dynasty asset, both in actuality and in his perceived value.

The same can’t be said for someone like Carlos Rodón or Kevin Gausman. Skenes is a superior pitcher to those two, so the analogy isn’t perfect. Still, it’s worth considering “trade value” in future dynasty deals, especially with trade deadlines around the corner for many leagues. For instance, acquiring an aging first baseman might make sense for production purposes. Just understand there might not be an off-ramp for the next trade involving that player.

On the other hand, young stars, elite prospects, and future draft picks can usually be flipped at any time. It’s okay to cash in on future value and trade value to win a fantasy championship. If your goal is to build a consistent winner, then it’s critical to maintain a certain level of trade value. Again, this is a post for another day.

A New Pitch

It’s impossible to think about Skenes without remembering that last year, there were real concerns over the shape of his fastball. He threw hard at LSU, which helped disguise the issue, but evaluators wondered how the pitch would ultimately fare against big leaguers.

With the benefit of hindsight, we know there is more at play. The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner noted this week that, while at LSU, Pitching Coach Wes Johnson helped Skenes lean into his unique athleticism:

“I talked to Paul when I got him and I just said, ‘Here’s the way your hips work, you need to be rotational, and it’s OK if your arm slot is not over the top,’” Johnson said. “We wanted it to unravel naturally so that he maximized his arm speed instead of trying to climb and come over the top and ‘be downhill.’ And the first thing he (said) was, ‘Man, I like this.’ It felt easy on his arm, his recovery got better, a lot of things. Once we saw his hips and how his body wanted to work, it made it very simple.”

Lance Brozdowski commented on Skenes being “rotational” back in spring training. That is when I started viewing his mechanics as less of a flaw and more as a strength. At the season’s midway point, no starting pitcher throws harder than Skenes, and he does it from a unique horizontal approach angle for his size.

And yet, it wasn’t until he debuted that the world learned of his best pitch — his splinker, which he didn’t even throw until this season.

As Yahoo Sports’ Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman put it this week, the splinker is “a unicorn offering with the velocity of a sinker and the vertical depth of a splitter.”

Baseball Savant classifies it as a split-finger. Their run value metric grades it as the most valuable splitter in baseball:

Sports Info Solutions also grades Skenes’ splitter as the best in baseball using their pitch values.

Interestingly, both sites see the rest of his arsenal’s value as more or less average. For example, Savant gives his 99.1 mph four-seamer a 0 run value.

Stuff+ gives him three above-average pitches, which doesn’t even include the ultra-unique splitter. He can also command the entire arsenal, which only helps everything play up.

I can’t help but wonder what Skenes would be without the splinker. Would his “dead zone” fastball be more of an issue? Ultimately, fixating on that is missing the forest for the trees. Skenes is who he is because of his humility in being open-minded to a new offering, his desire to get better, and his overall knowledge of pitching.

Starting pitchers frequently add and subtract from their arsenals. Skenes already had his first test, and he aced it. He might be the best pitcher in MLB because of it.