Predicting September Prospect Promotions

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Lawlar, Everson Pereira, and more!

I first had the idea to write this a week ago, and it turns out I shouldn’t have waited. In the past few days we’ve seen big league promotions for Masyn Winn, Nolan Schanuel (!!), and Noelvi Marte.

Jeff Passan touches on why in his write-up on Marte:

“Teams, knowing there are not enough days in the season anymore to exhaust a player's rookie status, are trying to get young players major league experience while keeping them eligible to potentially earn the team draft-pick incentives through Rookie of the Year voting next season.”

This is the continuation of a trend we saw last year, following the new CBA that awards draft pick compensation to teams that produce a Rookie of the Year winner who debuts on Opening Day (and enters the year as a consensus top-100 prospect).

This July, the Mariners were given the 29th overall pick in the amateur draft thanks to Julio Rodriguez’s award-winning 2022.

The Braves, however, were not given a pick for Michael Harris’ award since he wasn’t with the club on Opening Day.

But it’s likely we see two organizations reap the benefits in 2024, thanks to decisions made last September.

Some sportbooks are no longer taking National League Rookie of the Year bets as it’s become that obvious the honors will go to Corbin Carroll. Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson recently became the favorite in the American League. Both players debuted between August 29th and August 31st last season.

And so that’s a long way of me highlighting why this is a trend we should expect to continue for as long as this CBA remains is in place. And truthfully, it can be seen as a win-win. Teams are now incentivized to speed up developmental timelines (but in a way that when these rookies arrive, that they’re ready to win some hardware).

Whereas where the alternative used to be us waiting a few weeks into a season we already know they’re ready for (Kris Bryant always the easiest example), we now get to see these talented youngsters a full 7-8 months earlier.

So who else should we expect in 2023? I’ve chosen not to include mega buzzy names such as the elite Jackson duo (Holliday and Chourio, of course) — just because those odds feel very slim. Yes, it would be fascinating if either the Orioles or Brewers did that, but they’re also both extremely young right now for Double-A.

Instead, I focused on Triple-A bats who organizations should be viewing as “no-brainer” decisions to bring up.

Lastly, since I expect this question to come up each time someone receives a promotion, I don’t think any of them are instant must adds in your typical 10-12 team redraft league. Instead, I’d view their arrivals as “starting their value clock” for dynasty leagues, and see this as an early “scouting opportunity” for 2024 redraft.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

There are teams who who should promote a young player because 2023 hasn’t gone as planned, and there’s no reason not to see what you have with them (such as the Cardinals with Masyn Winn).

With a 47.3% chance of making the playoffs (per Fangraphs, as of Saturday), the Cubs aren’t one of those teams.

PCA was acquired from the Mets for two months of Javier Baez, in what has become a steal of a trade at the 2021 deadline.

The 21-year-old opened this season at Double-A, posting a 134 wRC+ while displaying an extremely well-rounded skill set (14 HR, 27 SB, .289 BA, .231 ISO).

Among players age 21 and younger at the level, PCA ranks fourth in both wRC+ and ISO, and he did it with strong plate discipline (24 K%, 9.1 BB%).

While his time at Triple-A has been limited to 14 games, he’s once again impressed with a .298/.412/.561 triple slash line (142 wRC+).

For reference, Elly De La Cruz posted a 149 wRC+ at Triple-A this year, also in his age-21 season.

But it’s that lack of experience for the level that the Cubs might still be focusing on. From Jed Hoyer, just a few days ago:

“We’ll see. He’s been playing great,” Hoyer said. “I think it’s way too early to talk about that. He hasn’t been in Triple-A too long, but he’s playing great. It’s been fun to watch. And obviously he has a skill-set, certainly, that can benefit us in a lot of ways.”

And looking at Chicago’s situation, it’s tough to argue against taking a longer-term view with PCA. Mike Tauchman and Cody Bellinger are both capable of holding down center field right now. And with Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corner spots, there isn’t room for an everyday role for PCA.

I therefore think it’ll take an injury for him to get regular at-bats down the stretch. His other path to a promotion is as a defense/speed bench piece, and that outcome should maybe even be considered likely.

If the PCA hype never arrives this September, then he’ll be an early offseason draft target in roto leagues, as I’d expect his price to rise closer to spring training.

Note The Athletic discusses the possibility of left-hander Jordan Wicks receiving the call as well.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks

Lawlar is even newer to the Triple-A level than PCA, having played just four games at the level entering Saturday.

And Lawlar is already impressing with 2 homers and 2 stolen bases thus far, giving him 17 and 35, respectively, in 2023.

The former 6th overall pick began the season slowly, slashing just .168/.298/.336 through May 24th at Double-A.

During this stretch he had a 30.5 K% and a .168 ISO. Since May 25th, prior to his Triple-A promotion, he slashed .316/.405/.551 with a 16.6 K% and a .236 ISO.

While Arizona has received the 9th most fWAR at shortstop this year, they rank middle of the pack in pure offensive production.

The desire to make another aggressive Lawlar promotion has probably lessened of late, as the D’Backs are down to just a 29.7% chance of participating in postseason play, per Fangraphs.

While conducting a Google search to see if there’s been any reporting on the possibility of him playing in the bigs this season, I wasn’t able to find anything, which leads me to believe he’s farther than off.

Similar to PCA, I’m interested in targeting Lawlar in deeper redraft leagues early in the offseason, as there’s potential for him to make a substantial ADP rise by the end of spring training.

Everson Pereira, OF, Yankees

This once-great franchise saw its 2023 record fall to 60-63 on Saturday, and it’s becoming more clear by the day that the club should be getting a head start on 2024.

The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty does a nice job of detailing the different levers New York can pull to achieve this, and calling up Periera (while cutting Greg Allen) is atop the list.

It’s a move that makes too much sense not to happen, and while Pereira isn’t in the class of prospect that PCA and Lawlar are, it’s always exciting to start getting big league looks at any top-100 names.

Pereira is someone I’ve had a bit of a blind spot for evaluation-wise, so I’m going to defer to Chris Clegg’s analysis in his “prospects to sell high” piece from a little over a week ago:

“The more significant issue is contact, as Pereira strikes out a ton and has a 66 percent contact rate this season. The power and speed are fun to dream on, as Pereira is a great athlete, but I can’t move past the swing and miss. You might get a top-25 prospect for Pereira, but I would likely try to package him for a win-now piece.”

This type of profile typically takes some patience, as it’s unlikely Pereira hits the ground running even once he gets everyday ABs in pinstripes. He has a 29.2 K% in the upper minors (AA and AAA, dating back to 2022).

The best case scenario is he pulls a Zack Gelof, compiling homers and steals while we look under the hood to see if there’s any contact rate improvements during his time in the bigs (something we noticed with Josh Jung last September).

Heston Kjerstad, 1B/OF, Orioles

The former 2nd overall pick has been through a lot in pro ball. Soon after being drafted he was diagnosed with myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle), which delayed his development, but he’s since come roaring back.

After winning AFL MVP honors last fall, Kjerstad tore up Double-A this season, bopping 11 homers in 46 games with a 159 wRC+ and excellent plate discipline (just a 15 K%).

He got off to a hot start at Triple-A, but since August 5th he’s batting just .157/.214/.275 with a 30.4 K%. Fatigue could be setting in. He also wouldn’t be the first Orioles prospect to rake at Double-A before needing to adjust to Norfolk.

Baltimore is mixing him in at first base lately too, and it’s clear the organization places a premium on defensive versatility at the big league level.

The club is somehow getting real production from Ryan O’Hearn, and Ryan Mountcastle has been hot lately, and Anthony Santander has begun playing first base as well, so there isn’t necessarily a clear path for Kjerstad to debut this fall.

If the 24-year-old was still tearing it up at Triple-A, I’d make the case for the Orioles to bring him up with expanded rosters in September, to simultaneously have him contribute off the bench while exposing him to life in the bigs.

But pitching appear to be the team’s focus as they fight towards a Round 1 bye in a loaded American League, which combined with Kjerstad’s struggles makes a promotion more unlikely at the moment.

That could change with a few hot weeks and an injury to the big league club. It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Orioles handle their glut of positional prospects this winter. It’d be fun if it became clear that Kjerstad would get an everyday role entering next spring. The more likely outcome is that he’ll be part of a depth equation, and throughout 2024 will hit his way into more regular playing time at Camden.

Coby Mayo, 1B/3B, Orioles

I initially combined Kjerstad and Mayo before realizing their situations are a little different. Mayo is only 21 and has even less of a defensive home than Kjerstad.

I should also note that Colton Cowser is back in Triple-A, and the Orioles could simply bring him back up before considering Kjerstad or Mayo.

Anyways, Mayo was the best hitter at Double-A this season (177 wRC+), and when you factor in his age it becomes highly impressive. Baseball America describes him as possessing power, plate discipline, and average or better bat-to-ball skills that allow him to control ABs and work deep into counts.

In other words, the kid knows how to hit.

Something Eric Longenhagen noted in his preseason Orioles write-up was that Mayo makes frequent, hard, and pull-heavy contact. That would normally be great, but as I’ve written about while discussing Jordan Westburg, I am SPOOKED by Mount Walltimore.

The right-handed Mayo currently has an eye-opening 64.6 pull% at Triple-A. That could lead to a lot of deep fly outs at Camden Yards.

While he only has an 84 wRC+ for the level so far, Mayo is picking it up of late, going 8-for-21 with two homers and two doubles over the past week.

Ultimately, Mayo is fighting a crowded depth chart, poor defensive value, and a weak offensive environment. I’m quite comfortable trading him for win-now pieces if I’m a competing dynasty squad. Whereas I’d be all over this pull-happy profile in Cincinnati, I’m choosing to fade the 21-year-old based on the market value I’m seeing across my dynasty leagues.

Colt Keith, 2B/3B, Tigers

So Keith was actually the original inspiration for this article back in the middle of summer. At the time when I profiled him on Patreon, he was lighting it up at Double-A. With the Tigers struggling, this felt like the exact type of prospect to expose to the majors in hopes of preparing him for a 2024 Opening Day role.

In 59 games at Double-A this year, Keith posted a 9.1 BB%, a 22.8 K%, and a .260 ISO. That’s a really nice mixture of zone awareness and power.

Through 37 games at Triple-A his plate discipline is nearly identical, but his ISO has fallen to .201 entering Sunday. Keith just turned 22 and he has a perfect “base” for any hitting prospect. So this isn’t a long-term concern.

I’m really hoping he gets a full-time job with the Tigers in September, because fair or not I do feel as if his modest Triple-A numbers have popped a hole in the helium he was generating.

But any of my concerns could be quelled by a nice showing in Detroit, and I wonder if Keith has become overly pull/fly ball obsessed now that he’s one step away from the bigs.

So much about his 2023 breakout has been attributed to more pull power, which is great. But after his Double-A FB% sat at 38.7% this year, he’s up to 43.1% at Triple-A.

That could be a matter of swinging at the right pitches, and as previously stated Keith has that great strike zone “base” to fall back on. It’s a trait that certainly has the attention of Scott Harris, Detroit’s President of Baseball Ops:

“Colt has been really, really fun to watch all year,” Tigers president Scott Harris said last week. “In many ways, he embodies the offensive approach we’re trying to build around in this organization. He’s swinging at the right pitches. He’s accessing his power almost every night. If you don’t catch yourself, it’s easy to forget that he’s the youngest player on the team and he’s one of the youngest players in all of Double A, and he missed some valuable reps over the course of his young career due to injury.”

Keith is simultaneously a piece I’m willing to sell high in dynasty (emphasis on sell high), and also one I’m excited to get more info on at the big league level, hopefully in the weeks to come.