Prospect Report: Evan Carter, Ben Brown, AJ Smith-Shawver, Jonatan Clase

Youngsters grabbing my attention as the calendar shifts to May

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Evan Carter, OF, Rangers

I’m the type of prospect evaluator who prefers hit tools and sound swing decisions over a raw slugger who expands the strike zone. That doesn’t mean I’m out on someone like Elly De La Cruz, but it does mean I’m comfortable being a little underweight on him. It also leads me to being significantly overweight on someone like Jackson Holliday.

And Carter is becoming a bit of a favorite for me. Here are his walk rates at each of his minor league stops:

• 2021 Low-A: 23.3%

• 2022 High-A: 13.2%

• 2022 Double-A: 17.9%

• 2023 Double-A: 22.8%

Not all of those stops featured the same amount of plate appearances, but the point is that drawing walks is a skill Carter has consistently shown since being drafted. I was really impressed listening to Carter’s mindset on a recent episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast.

To summarize, Carter says he simply won’t swing if it’s a bad pitch. Conversely, he looks to attack pitches in the zone. That’s the perfect hitting philosophy! In general, more players would benefit from swinging less. Of course, there’s a balancing act to that game-within-the-game.

So Carter has the base of what I look for in a hitter, but entering 2023 he still needed to improve his strength. Through his first 92 PAs this season he has four homers and a .200 ISO, which is a nice bump from the .189 mark he posted in his 447 PAs at High-A in 2022.

Oh, and if we include his time at Double-A last year, then Carter has a truly insane .508 OBP in 120 PAs at the level.

This comes on the heels of a historic High-A performance. Since 2006, among all players at High-A age 19 or younger, Carter’s 136 wRC+ last year was the 3rd highest ever (min. 400 PAs). He ranks directly behind Xander Bogaerts and Domingo Santana, and ahead of names like Cody Bellinger, Willy Adames, and Rafael Devers.

So yeah, I just threw a lot at you about Carter. What you need to know is that his swing decisions are nearly perfect for his age, and that he’s adding strength (and therefore power). I’ll be tempted to rank him as a top-10 overall prospect in my next update.

Ben Brown, SP, Cubs

Brown is a former late-round pick of the Phillies who was sent to the Cubs in exchange for David Robertson at last year’s trade deadline.

The Cubs, as you may know, are in the midst of their own internal pitching revolution - and Brown appears to be next in line as a name to know.

He’s all over the Double-A leaderboards, ranking 2nd with a 0.45 ERA, 6th with a 39 K%, and 7th with a 31.2 K-BB%. I also like that he’s currently generating grounders at a 48.7% clip. It’s above most of his career marks, but I’m willing to entertain the notion that the Cubs have made changes to his arsenal, which could be helping his batted ball results.

The one caveat with Brown’s recent success is that it has come as a 23-year-old at Double-A. Good prospects for that age-to-level should be dominating. Brown was promoted to Triple-A over the weekend, so we’ll get some more data on him soon. He isn’t someone to get carried away with, but I’m watching him closely as a “proximity prospect” in dynasty leagues where I need pitching help.

AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Braves

We’re going to spend the rest of our lives trying to find “the next Spencer Strider.” Already this season we’ve joked that it could be Mason Miller. Here’s another name to throw in the ring — check out these Smith-Shawver highlights.

Through 3 starts (just 14 innings) the 20-year-old has a 36.5 K-BB% and hasn’t allowed an earned run. It’s a sign that the 2021 Round 7 selection is ready for a higher level of competition.

Smith-Shawver is a quick-twitch, former multi-sport athlete who combines a fastball with premium velo and a high-upside slider. Offseason scouting reports noted he needed to work on his command, but thus far at High-A he’s allowed just 4 walks. Again, that could be a sign that hitters are simply overmatched and he isn’t required to throw strikes yet.

Still, wouldn’t it be very Braves-esque to take this arm full of untapped potential and reshape him into a top pitching prospect? I love pitchers with high-end “stuff”, which Smith-Shawver seemingly has. If these command gains are real then this will be an arm to be early on in dynasty leagues.

Jonatan Clase, OF, Mariners

Remember all those nice things I was saying about Carter’s exceptional zone discipline? That wasn’t Clase entering this year — a toolsy, switch-hitting outfielder who possessed some jaw-dropping traits but without a refined approach.

To his credit, Clase has become a different player in 2023. Through 101 PAs at High-A he’s slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers and a whopping 16 stolen bases.

Let’s start with the caveats — A) Clase is already 21 years old and B) he’s hitting in a very favorable offensive environment. Per my MiLB park factors, which you can access on Patreon, High-A Everett is in the 76th percentile. This is actually lower than I would’ve guessed when you hear about the Northwest League environments.

Anyways, Clase isn’t going to run a .429 BABIP all season long, but he’s once again running wild a year after swiping 55 bags. He’s also walking a lot more — raising his BB/K from 0.49 in 2022 to 0.63 this season.

I’ll be very curious to see if these underlying improvements stick at Double-A (assuming Clase gets a promotion later this month). You might need to act on him in dynasty before we get that Double-A sample, but if he passes that test then he’ll be flying up prospect ranks come season’s end.