Prospect Report: Jackson Merrill, Adael Amador, Carson Williams

3 shortstops who have impressed at High-A this season

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Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres

Merrill was a preseason dark horse to finish ‘23 as one of the best prospects in baseball. While it doesn’t look like he’ll reach top-5 status this season, Merrill comes out of the All-Star break ranking 9th at MLB Pipeline and 17th at Baseball America.

That scouts are still favoring his game is reassuring considering he posted just a 114 wRC+ at High-A this year.

Those stats require some serious caveats, though, as the Fort Wayne TinCaps are in the 1st percentile of my MiLB park factors. They play in the Midwest League, which is home to 3 of the bottom 5 offensive environments in all of the minors.

The early-season weather in the Midwest League is a real issue, and Merrill was slashing just .188/.247/.338 through May 6th.

Since then, through the rest of his time at the level, Merrill hit .317/.348/.487. His wRC+ improved from 64 to 135.

Merrill was taken 27th overall in the ‘21 draft, and he has packed up San Diego’s belief in him despite the selection coming as a surprise. Throughout this time in the minors Merrill has flashed a picturesque lefty swing with good bat speed and a feel for hitting. He’s known for strong in-zone contact rates and could develop into a plus hitter with above-average power, though he’s still learning to pull the ball in the air.

Merrill ran low walk and strikeout rates during his time at High-A this year, so he could be a real asset for batting average fantasy leagues if his hit tool continues developing as expected.

Note Merrill was promoted to Double-A coming out of the All-Star break.

Adael Amador, SS, Rockies

Let’s start with a health update on Amador, who recently underwent surgery on his right hamate injury:

The timing was a major bummer as the 20-year-old was in the midst of a tremendous breakout campaign at High-A.

Up until that HBP, Amador was slashing .315/.406/.535 with a 12.4 BB% and a 9.6 K%. It added up to a 149 wRC+, while he also popped 9 homers and swiped 12 bases.

That wRC+ would rank 2nd among High-A hitters age 20 or younger, behind only Jackson Holliday.

Even when adding in the couple of games that Amador played after the hamate injury, his 1.19 BB/K ratio ranks first among High-A bats 20 or younger. And he’s the only hitter in the top-10 who also has an ISO over .200 - a contact/power skill set reminiscent of Wander Franco.

This statistical evidence backs up Amador’s reputation as one of the best pure hitters in the minors, pairing exceptional zone awareness with quality bat-to-ball skills.

Amador’s power is described as “fringe-average” in scouting reports, and he could be getting a boost from High-A Spokane’s plus park factor (which ranks in the 71st percentile - all MiLB park factors can be accessed via a Patreon subscription).

Game power can be developed as prospects fill out with age, especially when there’s a strong hit tool base to build upon. For now dynasty managers should be thrilled about Amador’s development into a Wander-lite profile with room to grow.

Carson Williams, SS, Rays

Tampa Bay’s 28th overall selection in the 2021 draft, Williams comes out of the ‘23 All-Star break as a high-floor/high-ceiling prospect who just turned 20 at the end of June.

Williams’ floor comes from his superb defense, as Fangraphs noted in the preseason that he has “the range, actions, and internal clock to remain at shortstop long-term, as well as a great infield arm.”

Already possessing plus pull-side power, Williams will hit his ceiling if the hit tool improves. Through 292 PAs at High-A this season he’s batting .259/.363/.502 (134 wRC+) with 13 homers and 11 stolen bases.

Among players age 20 or younger for the level, only 5 hitters have a higher wRC+.

Williams’ calling card is that power, as his .243 ISO ranks second behind only Yanquiel Fernandez.

However, Williams is striking out over 30% of the time, which he did last year in Low-A as well.

This is where the risk comes into play. If Williams can make enough contact to consistently tap into his power, then he’ll be a potential superstar when you combine his strong defense at a premium position.

While advanced plate discipline stats aren’t publicly available for minor leaguers, Baseball America made this note in their most recent Top 100 update:

“There’s a healthy amount of swing-and-miss in Williams’ game, with fringe-average contact and in-zone contact rates. Some of these concerns are alleviated by his excellent swing decisions and low chase rate. In many ways Williams shares similar traits to former top overall prospect Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles. They both have a similar plate skills profile with plus raw power and athleticism. Williams is a better defender, while Henderson likely has more impact, but it’s a similar archetype.”

This is very promising as it implies Williams’ strikeout issues aren’t a result of poor pitch recognition. Similar to Henderson, Williams takes aggressive in-zone hacks, which pairs well with his 11.6% walk rate.

Still, a 30 K% at High-A isn’t ideal. Williams has all the tools to become both a fantasy and reality star. I’m high on him as is, but I’ll start getting aggressive with my prospect rank should he improve the strikeout rate while advancing to the upper levels.