Prospects I love Outside My Top 50
Undervalued pitchers and position players who could sky rocket
I always end up writing too long of an into and then I don’t get to write as many articles as I’d like, so we’re keeping it short and sweet today. Below are four prospects I love who are ranked outside my Top 50. Essentially, these are players I either think are undervalued (Miller, Bibee) or could sky rocket in value with big seasons (Bleis, Caminero).
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Miguel Bleis, OF, Red Sox
Here are Bleis’ Top 100 ranks on the big 3 prospect sites:
Baseball America: 88
MLB Pipeline: 93
Fangraphs: 20 (!!!)
I was blown away when I saw the Fangraphs ranking, but it goes to show how quickly the 19-year-old (as of March 1st) could rise in value this year. This is a player everyone wants to be early on.
A January 2021 signing out of the Dominican Republic, Bleis is Boston’s biggest get from the country since Rafael Devers. He’s also their first five-tool talent since Mookie Betts and he consistently hit the ball harder than anyone at the 2022 Florida Complex League, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.
Fangraphs notes that “Bleis has some of the planet’s sexiest bat speed and produces shocking power for a young hitter his size.”
Baseball America writes “Bleis mesmerized scouts with his tremendous talent in every facet of the game. When he barrels balls, he makes resounding contact, resulting in huge exit velocities that ranked atop the FCL, and he showed the ability to handle fastballs of any velocity.”
This is where we’re at with Bleis — special bat speed, elite rotational athleticism, surprising pop for his size, some iffy plate discipline, and plenty of physical projection. He’s raw and really just went up to the plate hacking last summer. He’s young enough to improve his swing decisions, though.
The way I like to handle prospects like Bleis is that I just want to see it at a higher level before going all in. This is why he didn’t make my Top 50. I consider my true ranking of him to be between Fangraphs and BA/Pipeline.
If he tears up Low-A for a month to begin 2023, then he’ll sky rocket everywhere. BE READY TO POUNCE. We just need to see that production so we know he has a floor as a prospect and doesn’t go the way of Hedbert Perez or other former Complex League darlings.
Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners
There’s beginning to be a ton of buzz around Mariners prospects, especially among their pitchers, following all their recent developmental success.
Miller looks to be next in line. A fourth-round pick in 2021, the 24-year-old made it to Double-A in his full-season debut. He has a clean delivery with an electric arsenal that includes the second best fastball among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects. It combines exceptional ride with a low release point.
At the start of this spring Miller told Prospect One’s Chris Welsh that he’s throwing two different sliders now — a sweeper and a “Gyro.”
This is a nice development because refining his secondaries is what could vault Miller inside the Top 50, and it further shows that the Mariners know what they’re doing with their young arms. MLB is a “slider league” right now as the great Eno Sarris says.
Finally, it’s exciting that Miller threw a combined 133 2/3 innings in 2022. He’s “older” for a prospect, yes, but it seems like we won’t have to wait long for him to establish himself in Seattle’s rotation, should that be his path to the majors.
There are some scouts who think he’d be better utilized as a dominant reliever, but The Athletic’s Corey Brock insists he’s a starter long-term. And I’m here for it. Whether it comes via the rotation or the bullpen, expect Miller to make his big league debut sometime in 2023.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
Caminero is a high-ceiling but far-away prospect who Tampa Bay acquired in typical Rays fashion. Needing to clear a 40-man roster spot, they dealt Tobias Myers to the Guardians in exchange for Caminero back in November 2021. Since then, the 19-year-old made his stateside debut, impressing both in the Florida Complex League and at Low-A.
The thesis here is similar to Bleis as Caminero is another young hitter who shows special abilities at a young age. While Caminero isn’t as athletic as Bleis (he’ll need to work on his agility to stick at the hot corner), he’s proven he can hit at Low-A by posting a 137 wRC+ in 26 games to end his season.
Evaluators rave about Caminero’s “mature feel” as a hitter, and all his scouting reports point out his advanced approach, noting he rarely makes the same mistake twice.
MLB Pipeline wrote “Caminero possesses elite bat speed that generates a ton of power to his pull side and impressive bat-to-ball ability that allows hard line-drive contact to all fields.”
I am NOT making these comps, but if it helps readers then so be it — when I read about Bleis I think of him as a Julio Rodriguez type and when I read about Caminero I see him as more of a Miguel Cabrera.
Just like with Bleis, it’s too early to put Caminero in my Top 50, but please join me in monitoring his early-season box scores. If-and-when he picks up where he left of in 2022 we will be going after him aggressively.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Guardians
Here we have another pitcher who popped up in Baseball America’s “Best pitch arsenals” series. Bibee was given the honors of having the 3rd best changeup and 4th best curveball among their Top 100 prospects.
Just like how we trust Seattle’s pitching pipeline, we want to do the same with Cleveland. Bibee has been overlooked, though, which is understandable for an organization that also features Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams.
There are more parallels with Miller — Bibee is also “older” for a prospect (he’s 23) who was a mid-round 2021 draft pick and threw a sizable chunk of innings last summer (132 2/3 to be exact). Note that this general profile seems to be undervalued, and we should be looking for pitchers who fit the description next offseason as well.
The Guardians took a pitcher who was previously known for his control, and helped him ride an uptick in stuff while maintaining that plus command. Sound familiar? Bibee is often talked about as their next Shane Bieber.
While Bibee’s age and draft capital have kept him hidden for a while, the production was fantastic last summer. He totaled a 2.17 ERA with a 27.1 K-BB% in 132 ⅔ IP between High-A and Double-A. Believe in those results. Believe in the Guardians’ development. Believe in Bibee!
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I'll keep an eye out for Miguel Bleis up here in AA Portland this summer. Cheers!