Ronald Acuña: Just Checking In
A tweet idea turned into my first post of the season
I’m back! It’s been a while, but this happens every year. I find my writing is at its best during the offseason. I miss baseball in the winter, but it’s nice to take time for research and putting together an article without needing a quick turnaround and dealing with outdated stats. There’s always so much good baseball content to consume, which only intensifies once the season begins. This year, I felt particularly squeezed for time once spring training began.
I will try to put together more quick-hitting posts this season. I’ll still conduct my usual deep dives when I’m particularly passionate about a topic, and this strategy means you’ll hear from me more frequently.
Anyway, I’m just starting to look into some hitting stats, which can be dangerous on April 9th. Pitchers can quickly change their talent level, especially after an offseason of training. Thanks to Stuff+, we have a tool to help quickly identify these breakouts.
Most offensive stats take longer to come online, though, and hitting, in general, is more complicated to analyze.
The first place I look this early in the season is swing rates, both inside and outside the strike zone. As a disclaimer, I’m not actually “worried” about Acuña right now, but I was poking around some year-over-year changes, his name popped up, and I wanted to see what might be causing his slow start. This is also a behind-the-scenes look at part of the process taken to evaluate players.
As discussed in my latest Baseball America piece, “Predicting The First Two Rounds of 2025 Drafts”, Acuña’s ‘23 MVP campaign was mainly fueled by a reduction in strikeout rate. The stolen base total made headlines, but Acuña improving as a hitter is the skill change that fueled everything. Here’s his rolling strikeout rate entering 2024:
Now here’s his chase rate from the past few seasons:
2022: 28.5%
2023: 26.8%
2024: 32.8%
It’s only been 42 plate appearances, so we aren’t sounding any alarms, but this is part of explaining why Acuña is struggling.
Let’s take it another step further. Why is he chasing? Here’s how often he’s seeing pitches in the zone:
2022: 40.6%
2023: 42.2%
2024: 35.3%
When looking at his pitch% by location so far in 2024, we see two red boxes beneath the strike zone that are being targeted frequently:
Pitchers are throwing to these locations 15.7% of the time so far, compared to just 9.8% in 2023:
This is only a small part of the “cat and mouse” game between hitters and pitchers. Acuña dominated in 2023, so it only makes sense pitchers are attempting to adjust.
Acuña’s track record of improving his selectivity means fantasy managers shouldn’t worry about his plate discipline. He’s far too young for it to suddenly disappear. It would be nice, however, if he got back to hitting the ball hard when making contact. Acuña’s knee injury from this spring may still bother him. His maxEV on the young season is just 111.5 mph. He’s yet to record a barrel. These are very small signs that could suggest a physical issue.
The odds are that he’ll go for two homers tonight against the Mets, and all will be right in the world again. Fingers crossed….