Second-Year Running Backs Profiles Using Advanced Stats
Breece Hall is great; what about the rest?
One of my favorite aspects of preparing for the upcoming fantasy football season is taking a look back at last year’s rookie class. By this point in the offseason I typically feel caught up on incoming first-year players (thanks mostly to the sheer volume of quality NFL Draft content we get nowadays).
But it’s always fun to reflect on the previous season - taking a look at which first-year players were better/worse than I remembered, and also to start thinking about second-year breakout picks.
We’ll start with this table of advanced stats for sophomore RBs I compiled. Headers with a black background were sourced from PFF. Red backgrounds came from NFL Next Gen Stats.
It’s a nice way to visualize what each RB did/does well. The players are sorted by rushing attempts, but I’m going to profile them one-by-one in order of how I’d rank them for dynasty purposes (0.5 PPR).
As always, don’t hesitate to reach out with questions on Twitter, @toomuchtuma!
1. Breece Hall, Jets
Hall was pacing towards an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Despite missing 10 games due to injury he still led the team in rushing yards, which speaks to both Hall’s talent and the offense’s struggles under Zach Wilson.
Hall dominated all of PFF’s efficiency metrics. He’s an explosive runner who picks up yards after contact and avoids tackles altogether.
Among all NFL RBs only Rashaad Penny recorded more yards after contact per attempt. Only Javonte Williams had a higher elusive rating.
The caveat is that Hall’s production came in a limited sample, which can’t be extrapolated over the course of a full season. Still, it’s a sign that he’s one of the most dangerous backs in the league.
Hall won’t face much competition from teammates in 2023. Michael Carter was terribly inefficient last year. Zonovan Knight has some wiggle to his game, but he’s a former undrafted free agent. Rookie Izzy Abanikanda flashed breakaway ability in college, but he arrives to the Jets as a fifth-round pick who can’t be considered a serious threat to Hall’s long-term workload.
Additionally, the entire offense received a major boost when the team acquired 4-time MVP Aaron Rodgers last month.
As shown above, Rodgers wasn’t as elite last season as he was in 2020-21, but Wilson was so bad that even upgrading to the ‘22 version of Rodgers turns the Jets into an instant playoff contender. And there’s further upside if Rodgers bridges the gap between last year and his back-to-back MVP seasons.
The only question for Hall entering ‘23 is how he fares post-surgery. Expectations should be limited early on, but offseason reports are encouraging thus far. Assuming he eventually gets back to full health, Hall has the ability to finish atop his position during the second half of the season.
Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
I was fully out on Kenneth Walker in fantasy this season. And then the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet and the hate went way too far.
So much of fantasy sports analysis is seasonal — this happens in baseball too. We spend months preparing for the NFL Draft, salivating over the dream landing spot for our favorite rookies. And I think that, for redraft fantasy leagues especially, we end up overrating rookies in May.
Or at least the impact that they’ll have on veteran teammates. A great example of this is Jaxon Smith-Njigba currently being drafted ahead of Tyler Lockett on Underdog Fantasy. That isn’t to say JSN can’t finish ahead of Lockett. I’m just noting how aggressive that is.
Equally aggressive is the idea that Walker is suddenly deserving of an ADP outside the top four rounds.
Whether or not you consider Walker to be “overrated” depends on how you viewed his rookie campaign. On the one hand, he was terribly inefficient, finishing second to last among qualified RBs in Next Gen Stats’ success rate metric. This is likely a huge part of why Pete Carroll drafted Charbonnet in Round 2, who profiles as a more consistent “chunk runner” in the NFL.
If you accept that Walker is a flawed player, then it’s easier to focus on what he does well, which is rip off highlight-reel TD runs at an above-average clip. Walker finished 3rd overall in PFF’s breakaway rate, and he was right outside the top-20 in elusive rating and yards after contact per attempt.
Does that mean he’s an outlier who will pull those off again this season? Or was it an unsustainable run that’s destined to regress?
As a price-sensitive fantasy football player, I’m way more into the idea of Walker in Rounds 4-5 than I was when he went at the 2/3 turn to begin the offseason.
Charbonnet might be good. He might be elite. He might be downright bad or maybe just average. We don’t know. But we know what Walker is — the good, the bad, and the ugly. He has a skill set that can succeed in the NFL. It’s my belief that the market is willing to move on from him quicker than we should.
Dameon Pierce, Texans
Pierce ranked second among rookie RBs with 220 rushing attempts last year. The fourth-round pick registered PFF’s top rushing grade from the 2021 college season, and his talent ultimately won out in the NFL despite the fact he didn’t have much fanfare entering training camp.
Pierce was also one of the most slippery backs in the entire league, finish 3rd in PFF’s elusive rating (and in a much larger sample than Javonte Williams and Breece Hall, who ranked 1-2).
In other advanced metrics Pierce was either solid (finishing 15th in yards after contact per attempt) or below average (Next Gen Stats’ success rate).
That latter point is at least partly concerning since Houston brought in Devin Singletary this offseason, who ranked 12th in success rate in 2022.
Luckily there’s also an upside case to be made for Pierce if the offense makes the improvements we expect this fall. New OC Bobby Slowik arrives alongside head coach DeMeco Ryans via Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers system. If we anticipate Slowik running some version of that offense, then multiple backs will be required, and Pierce could wind up as the main beneficiary if he takes to the scheme.
There’s also downside if the offense remains bad and the new coaching staff favors Singletary for whatever reason. Pierce’s 6th round ADP on Underdog makes sense. Just don’t treat him as too special of a must-have player in dynasty.
James Cook, Bills
I get the sense a lot of dynasty players like Cook, but I don’t feel as if any loves him.
And I get it. Buffalo RBs have been kind of disappointing recently, playing for a (very) pass-heavy offense with a moose of a quarterbacks who steals rushing scores at the goal-line.
Here, courtesy of nfelo, are the 12 highest pass rates over expectation from the past three years. The Bills appear three times.
So that doesn’t help RB opportunities. Singletary and Zack Moss also weren’t great talents. Cook….might be.
The key reason to buy into Cook as a possible difference-maker is his 48.6% breakaway rate, which ranked 2nd in the NFL according to PFF — ahead of Kenneth Walker even.
So why didn’t he actually break as many long TDs as Walker? It’s a fair question. An easy rationale could be he received far less opportunities to do so.
Believing in Cook as a possible sophomore breakout requires multiple leaps of faith. First, you need to believe that he’s an above-average talent (which there are small signs of). Second, you need to believe that Buffalo will treat him like a lead back after signing Damien Harris in free agency.
Finally, you need to trust that the Bills are going to run the damn ball.
On multiple occasions this spring the organization has openly talked about Josh Allen taking less hits while he himself admits that he’s getting older.
Yet even if the offense decreases Allen’s rushing attempts, they could remain very pass-heavy, and it’s possible Harris receives the goal-line looks.
I really want to like Cook for fantasy purposes, but I worry his only path to a workhorse role will be via his talent becoming undeniable on limited touches early in the season.
Rachaad White, Buccaneers
For those who play in full-point PPR formats, there’s a strong case to be made for valuing White over Cook and possibly even Pierce.
The Arizona State product was the 91st pick by Tampa Bay in 2022, and he finished with poor rushing metrics across the board, but predictably excelled in the passing game.
Per SIS, White registered a 24.3% target per route run rate. His overall target share and yards per route run metrics were also good-not-great.
The elephant in the room is that the Bucs are moving on from Tom Brady this season, in favor of Baker Mayfield…
White’s passing game role on the 2023 Bucs seems secure, and if they don’t bring in an Ezekiel Elliott-type player this summer, then he could operate as the lead rusher as well. Currently, Chase Edmonds is behind him on the depth chart. That could lead to a ton of opportunity.
I’m not sold that White will be good with that opportunity, or that he’ll even wind up getting it. He’s a useful player in full-point PPR leagues, but I’m willing to be underweight on such a one-dimensional player with late-May opportunity as a key selling point for his ‘23 value.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for negative rushing yards over expected (per attempt) in both 2020 and 2021. He didn’t have enough carries to qualify this past season, but it’s fair to assume the coaching staff had grown tired of his inability to pick up the yards that were created for him.
Enter Pacheco, who as a rookie finished with a top-15 success rate in the entire league. He also ranked 9th in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
While PFF didn’t grade him as being particularly elusive or possessing top-tier speed, he did finish slightly above average in yards after contact per attempt.
As a 7th round pick, this is who Pacheco is. His rookie year was wildly successful given expectations, and he’ll enter 2023 as the early-down RB on the highest scoring offense in the NFL.
The issues are that he isn’t all that special (other than getting what’s given, plus a little more) and Kansas City throws at a historically high rate.
Pacheco is rock solid, and he likely aided a lot of fantasy teams as a waiver pickup last season, but due to that narrative as a success story he has the potential to become overrated this summer.
All it takes is the Chiefs signing Elliott or Leonard Fournette for Pacheco’s grip on meaningful carries to loosen significantly.
If you’re approaching Pacheco as a workload-driven fantasy RB attached to an elite offense (but with questionable long-term job security), then we’re on the same page. Once he starts being viewed as anything more than that, I’m out.
He profiles to me as a “small win, big loss” type of bet in redraft. I’m comfortable using this offseason to sell high in dynasty.
PS — CEH is literally free on Underdog right now. Pacheco goes at the 6/7 turn.
Brian Robinson, Commanders
B-Rob was literally shot in the knee during training camp.
And then he finished with the fourth most carries among all rookie RBs.
There’s an obvious question of whether or not the injury affected his athleticism. It’s fair to assume it did, but Robinson’s metrics weren’t that great.
The only area he grades out as plus in is success rate. He gets what is earned.
While B-Rob had a higher success rate than Antonio Gibson in 2022, Gibson was still solid and was better in ‘20 and ‘21.
Neither back performed as a great runner by PFF’s metrics, though Robinson ranked slightly ahead of Gibson in everything except YPRR.
Similar to Pacheco, Robinson is kind of just there. The Commanders seem less likely to bring in backfield competition than the Chiefs, but Robinson is still dependent on projectable carries. On the plus side, Underdog’s Hayden Winks has Robinson has a positive TD regression candidate entering ‘23.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
Talk about projectable volume. Allgeier would be a better version of Pacheco and Robinson if the Falcons hadn’t drafted Bijan Robinson 8th overall in the NFL Draft. He would’ve profiled similarly as a lowly drafted player who shined via success rate, but Allgeier was also good in other ways.
He finished top-10 in the entire NFL in elusive rating, yards after contact per attempt, success rate, and rushing yards over expected per attempt.
He also ranked 22nd in breakaway rate.
Arthur Smith’s well-designed rushing scheme certainly helped, as Cordarrelle Patterson also graded out well in most advanced metrics (there are certain teams/rushing attacks who seem to always have multiple back performing well in NGS’ metrics. It’s worth keeping in mind.)
But judging by the advanced stats, we still have more reason to believe Allgeier is good than we do for Pacheco/Robinson.
However, volume drives fantasy football value for running backs. And the Falcons just took a running back eighth overall.
Allgeier’s value took an enormous hit this spring, but not all hope is lost as he’s now a cheap handcuff on an elite rushing attack. And if the Falcons again run anywhere near as close to as much as they did last year, then there will be work for Allgeier.
2022 Atlanta was one of just six teams since 2016 to register a -10% pass rate over expectation or lower. They were one of just two to record a PROE below -12%.
Even without a Bijan injury there could be some best ball spike weeks in run-heavy scripts. In dynasty I view Allgeier as a hold.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers
Alright so this is fun. Here is how Warren compared to Najee Harris in 2022:
Elusive rating
Warren: 11th
Harris: 32nd
Yards after contact per attempt
Warren: 25th
Harris: 50th
YPRR
Warren: 19th
Harris: 43rd
Breakaway rate
Warren: 40th
Harris: 62nd
Warren didn’t have the attempts to qualify for Next Gen Stats’ metrics, but Najee was below average in both success rate and rushing yards over expected per attempt.
Warren was also 2nd in ESPN Analytics’s receiver rating, tied with Austin Ekeler while only trailing Christian McCaffrey. Najee ranked 26th among 36 qualifiers.
The obvious caveat is that Harris performed on a much bigger sample, out-carrying Warren 272-77. There’s a reasonable chance Warren could never handle that sort of workload.
There’s also a lot of signal that Warren is #good.
I wonder if this becomes fantasy twitter’s new Zeke/Pollard situation, where it’s so painfully obvious that the backup deserves more opportunities, only to be blocked a NFL Draft Round 1 plodder.
Warren’s story is impressive considering the Steelers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2022.
There’s a limit to his ceiling based on his size and draft capital, but I love sprinkling in Warren shares in best ball right now. He’s also a sneaky great player to buy in dynasty leagues this summer.