Snapshots
And Your Weekly Pitching Planner
I’ve always been better at analyzing the start of fantasy seasons than the messy middle. The reason, I think, is that I’m so locked into draft prep, aggregate rankings, ADP, and spring training news that everything happening in April feels like clean cause-and-effect.
A rookie hitter is playing more than expected and looks good at the plate? He was an ADP bargain and should move up the ranks. A closer gets hurt? Add his replacement. The slate feels orderly in a way that’s impossible by mid-June.
By the time summer rolls around, we’ve watched players hit the IL and come back, more prospects debut, and teams drift away from their preseason plans. For the way I play fantasy, it’s easy to lose the bigger picture in a way that just doesn’t happen in February and March.
In years past I’d try to capture all of it. That was partly for work, but it meant living on Twitter, aggregated news, and beat writer articles. Without the same work obligations this year, I’ve been curious how I’d handle not being plugged in every day.
What’s funny is that most days I feel like I know nothing. I’ve always joked that a day or two away from baseball in the summer can feel like missing weeks, and that’s before the trade deadline firehose turns on.
My solution has been taking snapshots of the themes that matter. A lot of this year’s writing has helped, including these weekly pitching planners and my lineup notes for Rotoworld. Analyzing batting orders carries more weight in June when the trends date back to April.
I still get overwhelmed by the news cycle at times. But narrowing my focus from “capture everything” to “a snapshot every few days” has made a difference, both for the teams I manage and for my writing. And it only gets sharper from here.
STARTING PITCHERS
Arizona Diamondbacks — Injuries to Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka have cratered their rotation depth. Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez get two-steps in St. Louis and Tampa Bay, but there’s a decent amount downside too. Avoiding Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt everywhere.
Athletics — Gage Jump draws an attackable matchup in San Francisco. Trust JT Ginn against the Angels on the road. Keep an eye on Jack Perkins at the Angels too. He’s someone I’ve already added for rotation depth in one deeper league.
Atlanta Braves — Passing on JR Ritchie, but the rest of the healthy rotation is surprisingly usable.
Baltimore Orioles — Can fire up Kyle Bradish (at LAA, vs. WSH), Shane Baz (at LAA), and Trevor Rogers (vs. WSH), but the Washington matchups are always scary. Brandon Young at home against the Nationals is a deep-league play at best, probably one to avoid, despite what looks like a recent skill jump with his splitter.
Boston Red Sox — Ranger Suárez gets Coors. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle get the Yankees at home. Sonny Gray gets both matchups. Not the best spots, but most managers probably don’t have better options.
Chicago Cubs — Ben Brown at the Mets is my favorite start in this rotation. Shota Imanaga gets the Brewers and can be started. Passing on Edward Cabrera’s possible two-step.
Chicago White Sox — Davis Martin and Sean Burke are deep-league only. Otherwise, I’m not interested in this rotation.
Cincinnati Reds — Nick Lodolo (vs. MIL) and Andrew Abbott (at PIT) are ideally limited to deeper-league usage.
Cleveland Guardians — Start them all except Cecconi.
Colorado Rockies — Nothing interesting.
Detroit Tigers — Skubal, Framber, and Casey Mize are starts. Troy Melton and Keider Montero both have usability at home against the Astros, but Melton is my preference, a solid streamer or bench stash this week.
Houston Astros — Really excited about Hunter Brown going forward. He gets a two-step in Toronto and Detroit. Tatsuya Imai and Spencer Arrighetti are both high-risk/high-reward, and I’d take Imai between the two. Peter Lambert (at TOR) has usability in deeper formats.
Kansas City Royals — Not excited about this rotation despite Stephen Kolek’s ERA. He, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Seth Lugo are most valuable in leagues with deep benches that reward healthy SP depth.
Los Angeles Angels — Reid Detmers and Walbert Ureña look fantastic. Both draw the A’s at home. Start them, plus Jose Soriano, who faces the Orioles.
Los Angeles Dodgers — Start them all except Eric Lauer.
Miami Marlins — All eyes on whether Eury Pérez returns this week, which would land on the shorter end of his original 4-8 week timetable. It’s been a frustrating season for him, but he was just beginning to turn it around before the injury. I’m optimistic if his health cooperates.
Milwaukee Brewers — Brandon Woodruff is projected to return in Cincinnati. I prefer a bench-and-see approach with him.
Minnesota Twins — Starting Joe Ryan (vs. LAD) and Taj Bradley (vs. COL), but passing on the rest.
New York Mets — Brutal Freddy Peralta matchup this weekend, but I’ll roll him out at home against the Cubs in all likelihood. McLean is the only other Mets starter I’m looking at.
New York Yankees — Starting them all.
Philadelphia Phillies — Sánchez, Wheeler, Luzardo is a fantastic 1-3.
Pittsburgh Pirates — Mitch Keller has fallen outside the circle of trust, but I’m starting the rest of them. Keep eyes on Jared Jones after leaving Sunday’s start.
San Diego Padres — Michael King is a start, and that’s it.
San Francisco Giants — Logan Webb has been on a roll over his past three starts. Hoping for, and expecting, a strong finish after a shaky start.
Seattle Mariners — Start them all except Luis Castillo.
St. Louis Cardinals — Dustin May gets the Marlins at home. Fire him up despite Sunday’s blowup.
Tampa Bay Rays — Excited about Griffin Jax at home against the Royals. Drew Rasmussen has a great two-step against the Royals and Diamondbacks. Start McClanahan and Nick Martinez as usual.
Texas Rangers — MacKenzie Gore is only a start for me at home this year. I’m sitting him in Toronto this week.
Toronto Blue Jays — Really high expectations for Dylan Cease in the second half. Gausman and Yesavage are starts, as usual. Shane Bieber makes his season debut Monday against the Astros. I’d like to see him before plugging him into lineups.
Washington Nationals — Foster Griffin and Cade Cavalli are fine in deeper leagues.
CLOSERS
Arizona Diamondbacks — Paul Sewald is on the short list of first-half fantasy MVPs. Meanwhile, AJ Puk will be shut down for at least another month.
Athletics — Elvis Alvarado is who the “snapshots” idea was built around this weekend. Right now he looks like a high-upside closer spec, and we’ll find out quickly whether he’s up to the task.
EDIT: Alvarado allowed a two-run homer to Zach Neto in Sunday’s loss, but he threw strikes and had three strikeouts in 1 2/3 IP. I’m still interested in him where available.
Atlanta Braves — Raisel Iglesias leads a bullpen with four high-end arms, including Robert Suárez, Dylan Lee, and Didier Fuentes.
Baltimore Orioles — Ryan Helsley has been shaky since returning from his elbow injury. Rico Garcia never popped as a fill-in closer the way many hoped.
Boston Red Sox — Aroldis Chapman’s usage has been comically low over the past month, likely due to his hamstring issue and trade considerations. Garrett Whitlock is someone to stash over the next month, but they might trade him too. So don’t add him too early, or for too much FAAB when you do.
Chicago Cubs — It’s cruel they got a save chance right after Daniel Palencia hit the IL. I’m not speculating on any of his teammates while I wait for him to come back.
Chicago White Sox — I’m rostering Grant Taylor wherever I can, based on the upside if they ever make him the closer. But there’s a decent chance that never happens.
Cincinnati Reds — Tony Santillan is a cheap saves spec.
Cleveland Guardians — Cade Smith is elite. Great to see Daniel Espino showing some high-end stuff out of the bullpen in the big leagues.
Colorado Rockies — Antonio Senzatela never became the full-time closer, so nothing interesting here.
Detroit Tigers — Kenley Jansen is back healthy and looks good as the closer.
Houston Astros — Josh Hader looks as elite as he has in quite some time. I completely got this situation wrong in spring training. I was worried about him coming back at full health, and I thought Bryan Abreu would take advantage of the early-season opportunity.
Kansas City Royals — Alex Lange is a cheap closer spec, similar to Santillan.
Los Angeles Angels — Three saves as a team since April 7. Ben Joyce doesn’t need to be stashed for anyone still holding out hope.
Los Angeles Dodgers — Tanner Scott is the guy as Edwin Díaz begins what I expect to be a cautious ramp-up.
Miami Marlins — Pete Fairbanks has pitched better than his ERA indicators suggest. He’s the closer despite some shaky appearances early on.
Milwaukee Brewers — Trevor Megill has wrestled the role away from Abner Uribe, who remains a high-end handcuff.
Minnesota Twins — Yoendrys Gómez finally gives us someone who can consolidate save chances in this bullpen. I rank him behind Alvarado and above Lange/Santillan.
New York Mets — Devin Williams is the closer.
New York Yankees — David Bednar is the closer.
Philadelphia Phillies — Jhoan Duran is the closer.
Pittsburgh Pirates — Gregory Soto is the closer.
San Diego Padres — Mason Miller is the closer.
San Francisco Giants — There is no closer, and I’m only speculating on Caleb Kilian in really deep leagues if desperate.
Seattle Mariners — Andrés Muñoz hasn’t had the cleanest runout, but he remains the unquestioned closer.
St. Louis Cardinals — Riley O’Brien has been a first-half fantasy MVP candidate.
Tampa Bay Rays — Bryan Baker is another first-half fantasy MVP candidate.
Texas Rangers — Jacob Latz has 12 of their past 14 saves. Pretty good.
Toronto Blue Jays — Only two pitchers enter Sunday with at least eight saves and 32 innings: Cade Smith has 34 IP, and Louis Varland has 42. His volume and ratios have been tremendously valuable.
Washington Nationals — Nothing interesting here, unfortunately. I’m only playing this fun Nationals team through its offense.