The First Base Problem: Why the Position Isn’t What It Used to Be

Fewer Anchors, Bigger Tier Gaps (2026 Fantasy Preview)

For decades, first base was the one position where you could count on the bat.

Hulking sluggers. MVP candidates. Cornerstones in fantasy and reality.

But that’s changing.

No position carried a stronger offensive reputation across MLB history, but we’re now living through the weakest decade of first-base production in the modern era.

Even if we narrow the scope to just the past 25 years, the trend is clear. The 2000s were a golden age. Since then, output has steadily drifted toward league average.

This doesn’t mean first base has suddenly become “scarce” in fantasy baseball. There are still enough serviceable bats to fill lineups. The difference is that the middle class has thinned out, making the drop-off from the elite to average steeper.

Legendary First Basemen

What do truly legendary first-base seasons look like in the modern game? What separates the best from the merely good?

After reviewing every $35+ first base campaign of the past decade-plus, I found four commonalities:

1. Five of the nine best seasons came from just two players, Goldschmidt (3) and Freeman (2).

2. Across all nine seasons in my sample, the floor is 100 RBI. The median run total is 117. When we isolate the $45+ seasons, they average 129 Runs and 121 RBI. These aren’t just big bats. They’re the core engines of elite lineups.

3. Runs show the strongest correlation with auction value among HR/R/RBI. This means that power matters, but the legendary seasons come from playing every day and thriving in a loaded offense.

4. There are two clear paths to legendary first base status.

• The Power-RBI Demigod — Olson 2023 is the blueprint with 54 HR, 139 RBI, 127 Runs. He lapped the field in counting stats and still cleared $49 despite offering nothing in speed.

• The AVG/SB Unicorn — Freeman 2023 and Goldy 2015 each topped $41 with .320+ AVG, ~20 SB, and strong traditional production.

These are the benchmarks. Not every first baseman needs to chase upside, but understanding what those seasons look like helps us reverse-engineer what matters most.

With that in mind, let’s turn the page to 2026.

Tier 1:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. / Blue Jays / Age: 27

Vlad has now underperformed his expected stats for three straight seasons, and the issue hasn’t changed: he doesn’t pull the ball in the air. When his barrel rate spikes, the results follow, but those stretches have been inconsistent. His xwOBA remains strong, but when you sort first basemen by xSLG, the flaws show up quickly. Vlad has played 156+ games in four straight seasons and has settled into a 23-32 HR range. After another relative letdown in 2025, the market feels done expecting greatness. But entering his age-27 season, there’s still just enough here to dream on a former elite prospect who continues to flash excellence.

Nick Kurtz / Athletics / Age: 23

Kurtz enters his age-23 season coming off a 36-HR debut in under 500 plate appearances, backed by elite batted-ball metrics. But there’s volatility here. He overperformed his expected stats without a strong pulled air rate, struck out over 30% of the time, and rode a .364 BABIP. The home park and improving lineup help, but this isn’t a bankable foundation yet. Compared to the older, steadier names in his tier, Kurtz offers a wide range of outcomes. Still, with 50-HR upside, managers playing in multiple leagues should make sure they get at least one share.

Pete Alonso / Orioles / Age: 31

After a career-worst SLG in 2024, Alonso bounced back emphatically in 2025, setting career highs in barrel/PA, xSLG, xwOBA, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity. He’s always had the volume, but this was a return to peak-level power. Since 2022, only Aaron Judge has driven in more runs.

Bryce Harper / Phillies / Age: 33

Harper hasn’t posted a $24+ fantasy season since 2021, which was the year before his elbow surgery. His expected stats remain good-to-great, but they haven’t returned to that elite level. He tends to miss time each year, which drags down the counting stats. He hasn’t had 90 RBI since 2019 and has reached 90+ runs just once since then. A bounce-back from 2025 is likely, but more to the level of his Tier 1 peers and not above them.

Freddie Freeman / Dodgers / Age: 36

Freeman has stepped back slightly from his 2022–23 peak, but he’s still been one of the steadiest elite producers in baseball. He’s hit between 21 and 31 homers in each of the past five seasons, with batting averages ranging from .282 to .325. His profile stands apart from other slugging 1Bs, with less power, more average, and more volume. Entering his age-36 season, the age cliff is looming, but there’s been no indication it’s arrived.

Rafael Devers / Giants / Age: 29

Amid the noise of a position change and a trade out of Boston, Devers posted the second-best barrel/PA rate of his career. His wOBA and xwOBA were nearly identical to 2024, reinforcing just how steady he’s been. But under the hood, something’s shifting. His walk and strikeout rates have changed significantly compared to just two years ago. Entering his age-29 season, it looks less like a red flag and more like an evolving slugger refining his approach.

Matt Olson / Braves / Age: 32

Olson has missed just four games since the start of 2020, and his power keeps him in the top tier at first base. But there's more year-to-year volatility than you'd expect for someone with a manageable K rate. His 2023 eruption, the best 1B season since at least 2014, was driven more by the context of a historic Braves lineup than a personal skill change, as his pulled air rate didn’t spike. He hasn’t come close to replicating it. Entering 2026, he’s still Tier 1, but more at the back of the line.

Tier 2:

Ben Rice / Yankees / Age: 27

Rice does everything Statcast loves. He hits the ball hard, pulls it in the air, and last year ranked 8th in MLB in xwOBA, sandwiched between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ketel Marte. Despite the elite batted-ball data, he underperformed his expected stats, suggesting more production could be coming. With dual eligibility, a strong supporting cast, and Yankee Stadium as a backdrop, he has one of the cleanest breakout paths at the position. Prepare to pay up for it come draft day.

Josh Naylor / Mariners / Age: 29

Naylor attempted as many steals in 2025 (32) as he had from 2019 to 2024 combined, going an efficient 30-for-32 in a contract year. While it was a career year on paper (2nd-best roto 1B), it wasn’t entirely out of nowhere, as he finished 3rd among 1B in 2024 and 12th in 2023. He’s produced across three different organizations and remains a good, well-rounded hitter. The so-so Statcast profile keeps him out of the elite tier, but his production keeps landing him near the top anyway.

Tier 3:

Yandy Díaz / Rays / Age: 34

Díaz rebounded from a down 2024 to post a career-high 25 homers, though 18 came at the friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field. He turned 34 last year, and there are early signs of age creeping in, with slight slippage in his walk and chase rates. Still, the production was fully supported by his Statcast profile. Even if he’s entering the decline phase, he hasn’t lost his foundation just yet.

Vinnie Pasquantino / Royals / Age: 28

Pasquantino hasn’t fully recaptured the elite plate discipline from his rookie year, but he broke out in 2025 with career highs in barrel/PA and pulled air rate. The chase rate has ticked up since 2022, but the tradeoff has worked. He drove in 113 runs last season, 6th-most in MLB. For fantasy, the path forward is clear: hold the power and RBI gains, and bring the batting average back up.

Michael Busch / Cubs / Age: 28

Busch finished 2nd in xSLG and 3rd in xwOBA among first basemen in 2025, and still underperformed those marks while hitting 34 home runs. That expected stat profile marked a major jump from 2024, raising the question of whether this is a new level. If the contact gains hold, there’s room for even more production in 2026. He’s one of the more intriguing breakout bets at the position.

Tyler Soderstrom / Athletics / Age: 24

Soderstrom showed sneaky-strong underlying metrics in a small 2024 sample, and they were fully vindicated in 2025. He maintained his bat-to-ball impact over a full season while also trimming his strikeout rate — a rare combo for a young slugger. He didn’t turn 24 until November, and the arrow is still pointing up.

Tier 4:

Salvador Perez / Royals / Age: 36

At age 35, Perez ranked 2nd among first basemen in barrel/PA and 3rd in xwOBA. Yet he once again underperformed those expected marks, despite pulling the ball in the air. It’s likely tied to his lack of speed, which also helps explain the perennially low run totals. The profile remains power-heavy, SLG over AVG or OBP.

Spencer Torkelson / Tigers / Age: 26

Torkelson hit 31 homers for the second time in three years, but his fantasy value stops there. Even the RBIs haven’t been standout despite the power. His barrel/PA rate dipped from 2023, and while the age curve and pedigree still offer some optimism, the home park doesn’t do him any favors. There’s real downside risk here. He’s not a total avoid, but you don’t want to be leaning on him for your power base.

Willson Contreras / Red Sox / Age: 34

Contreras posted career highs in runs and RBI thanks to a career-high in plate appearances, but his skill set remains one of the most replaceable in today’s fantasy landscape. Low-20s power with no standout secondary category doesn’t move the needle in shallower formats. His bat-to-ball skills held steady in 2025, even as his walk rate fell from a career-best to a career-worst. He’s still a useful, stable presence in deeper leagues, but that’s where his value peaks.

Christian Walker / Astros / Age: 35

Walker is spending his mid-30s in Houston, drawing uneasy comparisons to José Abreu, though the former’s batted-ball data was far better. Walker still pulls the ball in the air and now has the Crawford Boxes working in his favor. The production dipped in 2025, but the underlying skills weren’t broken. That makes him a classic bounce-back candidate, especially if he comes at a post-hype draft discount.

Jonathan Aranda / Rays / Age: 28

A late-July wrist fracture derailed Aranda’s second half, but the Statcast breakout was already locked in. He finished 4th among first basemen in both xSLG and xwOBA. He also hit .316, but with a .409 BABIP. That was the highest mark over a full season (min. 400 PA) in the past 100 years. The skills are real, but that average is coming down. Just how far will determine what kind of follow-up season he delivers.

Tier 5:

Andrew Vaughn / Brewers / Age: 28

Vaughn looked like a different hitter in Milwaukee. He’s still not a bat-speed guy, but the former top prospect made across-the-board gains in his age-27 season, from expected stats to air-pull rate to plate discipline. The move clearly helped. If he holds a run-producing spot all year in the Brewers’ lineup, he could end up being one of the sneakier 1B values.

Alec Burleson / Cardinals / Age: 27

Burleson makes a ton of contact but doesn’t offer many standout tools. His plate discipline is below average, and his pulled-air rate remains poor, which limits his power upside. Still, he hit .290 last year (tied for 5th in the NL) and could open 2026 in the heart of the order for a rebuilding Cardinals team. That makes him a deep-league volume play with batting average appeal.

Jake Burger / Rangers / Age: 30

Burger had his worst season at the plate in 2025, with his walk rate falling all the way to the 1st percentile after already sitting in the bottom 15% the year before. He also underperformed his expected stats as his pulled air rate dropped. Still, if he holds a run-producing role all year, he projects as a power-plus-RBI option with an average that won’t hurt you. Just don’t expect much else.

Kyle Manzardo / Guardians / Age: 26

Manzardo gets the ball in the air, which he needs to, given his swing decisions and underlying contact quality. He hit 27 homers in 2025 but scored just 42 runs, a bizarre total that underscores how little else he contributed. For his power to matter in roto, he’ll need across-the-board improvement. The lift is real. Now the rest of the profile has to catch up.