This Is What a Breakout Looks Like

On Tyler Soderstrom's Evolution

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Let’s talk about what’s different with Tyler Soderstrom.

Strikeout Rate: Down

Strikeout rate begins to stabilize between 60–100 plate appearances, and Soderstrom is already in that range. But what makes his improvement more convincing is that this isn’t some sudden, out-of-nowhere jump. It started last year:

Soderstrom’s first 350+ MLB plate appearances have been chopped up across call-ups, injuries, and inconsistent playing time, which is why it didn’t feel like he was entering 2025 with that much experience. But the adjustments were already underway.

He lowered his strikeout rate from 31% in 2023 to 24% in 2024, but even that felt like the better end of what we could expect. If anything, my lean was some regression. Instead, he’s made another jump. His current 18% K-rate is better than anything he showed at any level of the minors.

Now, it’s April 16th, so minor sample caveats still apply. But this is also a 23-year-old, former first-rounder with underlying tools and time to keep developing. That combination is when it’s worth taking the leap of faith despite a shorter track record.

Walk Rate: Up

Soderstrom is also walking more, boosting his overall plate discipline thanks to movement in some key metrics:

Not shown above is his chase rate, though a better way to analyze his swing decisions is through Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which distinguishes between swinging at a borderline ball vs. an obvious one. SEAGER evaluates the quality of swing decisions, not just the pitch's location.

Currently, Soderstrom ranks in the 75th percentile, up from the 51st in 2024 and 26th the year prior. He’s seeing fewer first-pitch strikes, giving him more chances to work into favorable counts.

Overall, Soderstrom is swinging less. He’s more dialed in, more intentional, which is leading to…

Barrel Rate: Way Up

Soderstrom has always had big power. The question was whether he could access it consistently enough to make it matter.

As of Wednesday, he has 10 barrels — a number only six hitters in baseball can top: Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge, Austin Riley, Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Kyle Tucker.

He’s not quite at the point where barrel rate stabilizes, but this is more than a blip. And (once again) it’s not entirely new. Soderstrom showed flashes of this last season. He just didn’t have the consistent playing time to qualify for leaderboards.

Now, it’s showing up in the complete profile. His hard-hit rate, exit velocities, and sweet spot rate are all trending toward three-year bests.

This is where it all starts to come together.

Pulling in the Air

Some hitters like James Wood or Oneil Cruz have enough raw power to hit opposite-field homers consistently. But most don’t. Pulling the ball in the air is the most reliable path to in-game power for most players.

Here are Soderstrom’s homers from last year:

And here’s 2025:

He only hit one homer to the pull side last season. Now, he’s turning on the ball with authority.

It’s All Clicking

Soderstrom didn’t overhaul one thing like Kyren Paris did. He tightened up everything:

• Better decisions

• More contact

• Louder contact

• Optimized batted ball angles

For fantasy purposes, it’s tempting to label Soderstrom as a borderline top-5 first baseman (my brain defaults to OBP leagues, for what it’s worth). Maybe that’s too aggressive, too soon. The bigger point is this:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we drafted him much earlier in 2026 than we would today.

Predicting breakouts from a small sample is tricky, even with pitchers, but especially with hitters. Just look at the sudden drop in enthusiasm around someone like Anthony Volpe. We’ll see what happens with Paris.

Soderstrom’s case is different. It’s boosted by fundamental changes that began late last season and are continuing now. Maybe it’s a little early to call it officially…

But this is exactly what a breakout looks like.