Tuma's Take: Andy Pages, Jo Adell, Wilyer Abreu

Breaking down the fantasy values of 3 emerging outfielders

No intro today, as it’s been a while since I’ve written for Substack! Let’s dive into the profiles of three young outfielders for dynasty and redraft fantasy baseball leagues.

Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers

Once upon a time, Pages was almost an Angel. The 2018 international signing out of Cuba was set to be traded in February 2020 alongside Joc Pederson, but Angels owner Arte Moreno reportedly grew impatient and canceled the deal.

Pages remained with the Dodgers and erupted for 31 homers in High-A the following year, which was the most among all minor leaguers age 20 or younger.

He was good, but not great, at Double-A the following season, and then he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in May of last year.

However, through 55 major league plate appearances Pages is rewarding dynasty managers who remained patient. The 23-year-old rookie is slashing .300/.327/.500 with two homers and five doubles entering Wednesday.

Pages has been a bit aggressive at the plate, with the 24th-highest swing rate among hitters (min. 50 PAs). Thanks to a 90.3% contract rate in the strike zone, it's working for him.

It also helps that Pages hits the ball hard — 47.6% of the time thus far in the majors. Dating back to his time in the minors, Pages has successfully combined raw power with low ground ball rates, which led to his impressive homer totals.

It’s an approach that continues with the Dodgers, but Pages could benefit from hitting the ball harder when he gets it in the air. His 35% hard-hit rate on fly balls is only a little above the 50th percentile. Increasing that would improve his barrel rate, which would help counter some incoming regression due to his plate discipline.

Given how often Pages is chasing, and how well he’s performing overall, the league might begin countering with more pitches out of the zone. Pages has yet to draw a walk with the Dodgers, and while that wasn’t a problem for him in the minors, it’s a skill he’ll benefit from displaying.

The good news is he’ll get the opportunity to show improvement. Pages has started 13 straight games for LA, and seven of them have come in center field. He’s currently an integral part of the Dodgers’ 2024 plans, and likely their future too.

Jo Adell, OF, Angels

Speaking of playing time, Adell is up to eight straight starts for the Angels, with the two most recent featuring him hitting second.

Now in his fifth major league season, the 25-year-old is performing far better than he ever has, highlighted by a 172 wRC+ entering Wednesday’s action.

As shown above, Adell has decreased his strikeouts while hitting the ball with more authority than ever before. Per Baseball Savant, he’s currently in the 99th percentile for xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. His barrel rate is 93rd percentile.

Adell has been a bit more selective this year, and a massive reduction in his swinging strike rate has brought the entire package together. A strong maxEV has always been present (117.2 mph in 2023), and it now appears as if he’s benefitting from some off-season training at Driveline.

While it remains to be seen where Adell’s (new) true talent level lies, it’s noteworthy that he’s underperforming his expected stats. He has “earned” all the production he’s gotten so far, and so the question is if he can keep hitting the ball so damn hard?

His pedigree is strong enough that fantasy managers should want to find out. Adell is a recommended “hold” in both redraft and dynasty leagues until things stabilize. This type of batted ball data combined with a 22% strikeout rate is worth chasing.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox

We’ll close with a breakout youngster on my beloved (and playing better than expected) Boston Red Sox.

Acquired in the 2022 Christian Vázquez trade with the Astros, Abreu debuted in August of last year. Through 172 big league PAs he’s batting .316/.390/.500 with four homers and seven stolen bases. He has the 25th-highest wRC+ in baseball since his debut.

The worry is that in 2024 especially, Abreu is severely overperforming his expected stats (.399 wOBA vs. an xwOBA of .312).

His barrel rate is solid, and he makes good swing decisions, but he doesn’t exactly scold the ball.

That is until Tuesday night.

As Red Sox Stats noted on Twitter, Abreu smacked a 114.4 mph triple that was his hardest hit ball in the majors by nearly 5 mph!

Here are all the players who have hit the ball as hard this season:

It’s a good list to be on and a skill set that Abreu had never shown before. If he can consistently hit the ball hard, it’ll pair perfectly with his swing decisions at the plate, and help hold off any expected regression from his current numbers. A willingness to run and a favorable home park further boost his fantasy profile.

Encouragingly, Abreu has batted in the top four of the order in each of his past 11 starts. Given the injuries Boston has dealt with, Abreu should be given some extended runway to show he can keep improving. Redraft and dynasty managers are encouraged to give him the same opportunity.