What’s Wrong With These 3 Superstars?

Examining the hitting profiles of Julio Rodriguez, Trea Turner, and Austin Riley

Patreon subscribers know my overall thoughts on star/veteran early-season hitting struggles. In the beginning of May I dug into the profiles of four notable bats who were struggling, but I added the caveat that I typically like to wait until closer to June before reacting.

April weather is usually pretty bad in the northeast, which affects hitting. Additionally, some guys just take a little bit to hit their groove for whatever reason. Most offensive stats are very noisy early on, which is why I like to focus on swing decisions in April. The majority of the time, a hitter’s track record combined with their preseason projections outweighs their surface level stats through 100 plate appearances.

Someone from that Patreon post who is already turning it around is Manny Machado. On the flip side, I did express concern over Jose Abreu, and that situation continues to look bleak. The three players I’m discussing today are all true stars, and there’s no reason to worry about their season-long production yet.

Still, it can be comforting to understand what’s going on with your prized first-rounder, so let’s take some peeks under the hood.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

We’ll start with the bad.

During J-Rod’s rookie campaign he over performed his Statcast numbers:

• .366 wOBA vs .337 xwOBA

• .284 BA vs .254 xBA

• .509 SLG vs .460 xSLG

This wasn’t anything to be too alarmed about entering the year, as his wOBA-xwOBA differential was outside the top-20 among “over performers.”

But it’s showing up now because Rodriguez’s expected stats are actually slightly better than they were in 2022. And yet his results are so much worse.

Julio’s underlying plate discipline numbers are bizarrely similar to last season:

The only difference is that he isn’t getting strikes early in at bats. Rodriguez is doing his part by not chasing more, but he’s clearly being pitched differently, and he’s therefore in an “adjustment phase” similar to what Vlad Jr. went through in 2022, following his MVP runner up performance in ‘21.

In each case the league took notice of a dangerous hitter and adjusted, which puts it on the young star to adjust back.

When looking at Julio’s batted ball results, his pull rate has fallen from 41.7% last season to 31.8% in 2023.

I think this is the biggest reason why he’s gone from over performing his expected stats to under performing them. We know that pulling the ball, especially in the air, can help. And well, here are his pulled fly ball rates per season:

• 2022: 27.5%

• 2023: 11.9%

That explains everything right there. Julio does’t suddenly suck; he’s just navigating this new plan from opposing pitchers.

Take solace in the fact that he’s one of the top-25 under performers by xwOBA this year, according to Baseball Savant. Also believe in his talent - he’s too special for him to not eventually turn things around.

Trea Turner, SS, Phillies

You don’t have to dig too deep into Trea’s profile to realize he’s striking out more than ever before, checking into Monday with a 25.6 K% that has him hitting a career-worst .262.

That average can’t be blamed on batted ball luck either, as Turner’s .339 BABIP this year is right in line with a career .344 mark. So what’s driving the dip in production?

The above graph isn’t the cleanest, but it shows that over the past three years his wOBA has fallen, as has his contact rate. This coincides with a rising chase rate (O-swing%).

Not shown in the graph is Turner’s swinging strike rate, which currently sits at an uncharacteristic 16.9% (compared to his career average of 10.4%)!

Turner’s swing-and-miss (as well as his chase rate) were on the rise in ‘22 as well. Could it have been contract year nerves? Is he now “pressing” by trying to live up to the $300 million deal he signed?

Ultimately, I expect his chase rate to decline as summer approaches, and in fact it already is. Turner is hitting far better in May (125 wRC+) than he was in April (79 wRC+). Perhaps 2023 will end up being his final year as the 1.01 in roto leagues, but there’s still plenty of fantasy goodness left in his profile.

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves

Whereas Turner is arguably swinging too much this season, Riley is…not swinging enough?

While chasing outside the zone is mostly seen as a negative trait, the pitch-to-pitch decision of whether or not to swing at all is more nuanced. In-zone swings are good, but you still want to attack the most hittable pitches.

Riley had strikeout issues early in his career, and to his credit he’s sharply decreased his swinging strike rate ever since — bottoming out at a 12.7% rate so far this spring.

This had led to a career-best walk rate so far (11.3%), but the strikeouts are once again on the rise:

• 2021: 25.4 K%

• 2022: 24.2 K%

• 2023: 27.7 K%

It’s my belief that further decreasing his chase rate this season hasn’t entirely been worth it, because he’s swinging less overall and letting too many strikes pass by. He has a 15.6% called strike rate, so his CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) is a career-high, therefore negating the benefits of his decreased swinging strike rate.

The good news is this doesn’t appear to be a loss of skill. The solution is an approach tweak. Riley got off to slow-ish start last year as well, slashing .224/.309/.436 through May 22nd. We’re one week away from that date and I’d expect Riley to once again begin heating up.