Who Should Be the No. 1 Prospect in Baseball?
Updated thoughts on Elly, Eury, the Jacksons, and Jordan Walker
Mid-May is always a fun time for prospect evaluations. By this time of year we have enough minor league data to start making some early-season judgements, and we typically also see some graduations from prospect lists.
That’s once again the case in 2023 as Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, the consensus top-2 from this offseason, are both officially major leaguers now.
That “consensus” we all had for those guys at the top of lists this winter wasn’t exactly rare, but we’re now entering a period where any of the upper tier can go out and claim the top spot for themselves.
Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have similar names at the top of their respective lists, but the order is jumbled. Dynasty fantasy baseball prospect lists aren’t in full agreement, either. So this begs the question — who should be considered No. 1 during this transition phase?
The correct answer is probably that it’s a “tier” of the top-5 I name below. But I’ll still present a case for each of them, in addition to giving my personal ranks at the end.
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B/ Reds
Elly is… for lack of a better term, a freak. Through 27 games this season (he was slightly delayed due to a minor hamstring issue) he’s hitting .281/.374/.588 with 7 homers and 7 stolen bases.
That production has been even better after his first four games (when he was shaking off the rust and struck out 9 times in 18 PAs).
Over his most recent 113 PAs he’s only striking out 24.8% of the time with a 14.2 BB% as well. That plate discipline is a major improvement over his 2022 numbers, when De La Cruz had a 30.8 K% and a 7.8 BB% between High-A and Double-A. This is the reason he’s now in play as the number one overall prospect, because we already knew about the tools.
And my goodness those tools. Elly totaled a whopping 28 homers and 47 stolen bases last year. Now that we have Statcast data for Triple-A, we know that on May 9th he hit three different balls over 116 mph:
So far this season nobody in the majors has hit a ball as hard as 118.8 mph. In 2022 only Oneil Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, and Shohei Ohtani accomplished the feat. Therefore, it’s really impossible to overstate his ceiling.
Cruz has a similar profile, though he didn’t strike out as much in the minors as Elly did prior to 2023. Otherwise, it’s easy to see the comparison. De La Cruz might have three 80-grade tools (power, speed, arm) and is knocking on the doorstep of a big league debut.
He needs to maintain this improved approach at the plate in order to become the best version of himself. The good news is he’s openly talking about remaining this selective.
Eury Perez, SP, Marlins
Most of the time, a pitcher won’t be in play as baseball’s top prospect. Every prospect is risky, but the position is naturally more volatile than hitters. There was also a recent stretch where many top pitching prospects failed to deliver on the promise — Alex Reyes, Forrest Whitley, and MacKenzie Gore (for a while) come to mind. And just look at the recent issues Mason Miller, Andrew Painter, Ricky Tiedemann, and Daniel Espino have had.
If the Marlins had waited a little longer to bring Eury up to the bigs, then I likely wouldn’t have included him as an option for No. 1 overall.
However, since we’re in a period of flux of having a true No. 1 prospect, and because Eury has looked so damn good, he’s now worthy of consideration.
It isn’t just the surface level stats through Eury’s first two starts (though they’re quite good as he checks into Tuesday with a 2.79 ERA and 25.6 K-BB%). It’s that his fastball has a 125 Stuff+, which would only trail Spencer Strider, Hunter Greene, and Gerrit Cole if he had the innings to qualify.
That fastball has an average spin rate of 2,611 revolutions per minute, which ranks first among starters and fourth among all pitchers. He’s right ahead of Bryce Miller, whose fastball has been covered extensively by this point. Oh, and Eury throws his heater at 96.9 mph with 85th percentile extension from his 6’8” frame.
Perez throws his other secondaries hard as well, though Stuff+ isn’t in love with them yet (much smaller sample though). His locations also were below average. I repeat, small sample, but these are a couple of things to monitor moving forward. Otherwise, the 20-year-old looks like a budding star.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
I had Chourio third in my preseason prospect rankings on Patreon, and if I did’t reshuffle them then he’d be my new No. 1 by default. He hasn’t exactly done anything to lose that distinction, though I wish he hit the ground running a little more.
Through April 20th Chourio was hitting .196 with a 30.2 K% (70 wRC+). Since then he’s batting .280 with a 21.2 K% (101 wRC+). The improvement is good for a 19-year-old (!!) in Double-A, but the power is absent as he still only has a .100 ISO since April 20th. For comparison he had a .276 ISO at Low-A last year, and a .236 mark at High-A.
I’m going to be honest, though. As I was double checking Chourio’s age I forgot that he was going to be 19 for all of 2023. Yes, if he rocketed out of the gate this season then he’d likely be the unanimous top prospect in baseball. The fact he’s taking time to adjust doesn’t mean it can’t still happen. This is still a premium player to be patient with in dynasty leagues.
Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles
Holliday was taken No. 1 overall last summer and since then all he’s done is absolutely rake — hitting .361 with far more walks (56) than strikeouts (39). He’s hit for power, stolen bases, and enters Tuesday with a career .504 minor league OBP.
That’s great, but it includes his time at the Florida Complex League post-draft last year, so let’s just focus on 2023, and… Holliday is slashing .394/.513/.701 (!!) with more walks than strikeouts, a .307 ISO, and a 222 wRC+.
That’s great, but it includes his time at Low-A this year, which he was clearly too advanced for, so let’s just focus on his production at High-A:
.395/.505/.724
4 HR, 8 SB in 21 games
More walks than strikeouts
.329 ISO
220 wRC+
Most of his numbers are actually better at High-A than they were in Low-A. Holliday is an incredible baseball player who is laying waste to the lower level of the minors. Thus far he’s been doing it a year older than Chourio was last season. However, once Holliday reaches Double-A they’ll be the same age at the same level. And that’s when the comparisons between the two will truly start heating up.
Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
Credit to the Cardinals for trying it. Truly, not every organization would’ve done so, especially with the outfield logjam St. Louis had (and still does).
Walker arrived to 2023 spring training as one of the top 5 prospects in baseball, and then he mashed for over a month.
Unfortunately, that production didn’t last into the regular season where Walker slashed .274/.321/.397 — and even that was partly due to a .353 BABIP. He was chasing outside the zone over 40% of the time while whiffing at a 16.4% clip (which would rank in the bottom-6 among qualified hitters now).
It’s a tad concerning because even at Double-A last year he had an identical 16.4 SwStr%. The chase rate likely would’ve improved had he gotten more run, but add in some truly bad defense plus viable alternatives for St. Louis, and it made sense for the Cardinals to move on.
Now at Triple-A, Walker is whiffing less (11.2 SwStr%) and walking more, but the overall production hasn’t been there as he’s slashing just .217/.313/.337 through 96 PAs.
Nothing about his athletic profile has changed, though, and it’s very normal for hitters to improve their plate discipline throughout their early 20s. Walker, remember, just turned 21 on Monday.
Sooo yeah, he was probably a little rushed to the big leagues, but while there he flashed a 94th percentile maxEV and an 87th percentile sprint speed. If-and-when the swing decisions come together the upside remains enormous.
Brendan’s Top-5
Elly De La Cruz
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Chourio
Jordan Walker
Eury Perez
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