Why I’m Taking German Marquez Over Grayson Rodriguez on Underdog Fantasy
(And why it isn’t particularly close)
For background, here’s my hypothetical from yesterday:
On my Patreon I have an evergreen article titled “How to Be the Best Dynasty Manager You Can Be”, and part of the thesis is that succeeding at fantasy sports isn’t as much about player evaluation as most believe it is. Player evaluation is highly important, but the process of landing on your targets and identifying macro-level efficiencies is more important.
I say this because I’m terrified to become known as a stan for German Marquez — he of a career 4.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. This past season those marks checked in at 4.95 and 1.37, respectively, so it isn’t as if he’s coming off a strong campaign to build upon.
I’m also terrified to fade Grayson Rodriguez — he of a 38.8 K% and a 2.44 FIP since the start of 2021. Some might say Andrew Painter has surpassed him, but for the better part of two years now G-Rod has been a top-2 pitching prospect in the sport.
Rodriguez is undeniably more talented than Marquez and by this time next year is likely to (easily) be a better fantasy option than him in every single format. That’s true this year as well….in most formats. Underdog Fantasy (promo code TOOMUCHTUMA for first-time depositors) is the one platform where Marquez makes more sense for 2023.
This exercise isn’t necessarily about Rodriguez and Marquez specifically. They’re just two of the best (and most extreme) examples to get my greater draft philosophy point across. My fate will be tied to how they perform when healthy this season, since I’m going on record by saying I’d take Marquez, but sharp readers should understand the greater conversation being had. Still, let’s start by looking at their specific situations and seeing what can be learned.
Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles
Underdog ADP: 154.3 (SP52)
Tuma Rank: 207
Projection: 630 points
My preferred projections for Underdog scoring, for both hitters and pitchers, can be found on Patreon here. And you’ll notice that Rodriguez projects for over 200 less points than Marquez. This might be stunning to fantasy players who are used to roto leagues, where Marquez’s ratios are an absolute killer and where Rodriguez has unmatched upside in the middle rounds.
First, let’s review UD’s scoring system to see how we ended up with that projection:
That’s it for pitching! Wins, quality starts, innings, and strikeouts are the only ways that pitchers can earn positive points. And they all correlate with each other! The more innings someone throws, the more chances he’ll have at accumulating wins and QS, and the more Ks he’ll compile.
Now let’s look at Grayson’s 2023 innings according to the projection systems publicly available on Fangraphs:
ZiPS DC: 103 IP
THE BAT: 114 IP
ATC: 114 IP
Steamer: 139 IP
There’s some differences there, though Steamer’s workload appears to be the outlier. This isn’t particularly surprising as this system is almost always higher on younger players, especially top prospects. For reference, my projected UD points listed above is based on 114 innings. If I were to use Steamer’s projection for G-Rod, he comes out at 772 points. This makes him look a lot better, but he’d still fall short of Marquez.
This projection, to me, represents the “upside” case for the 23-year-old. Steamer says he’d be worth 1.8 fWAR with a 3.82 ERA if he hit this projection. Meanwhile, Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski notes that Rodriguez’s 80th percentile outcome this year would be worth 2.7 fWAR with a 3.21 ERA, so perhaps there’s even more fantasy upside in Rodriguez’s arm.
I believe it — to an extent — though Dan doesn’t provide us with the exact stats that lead to his 80th percentile outcome, so we can’t calculate a projection off of them.
Refocusing the comparison, these are Rodriguez’s best case scenarios and he doesn’t even reach Marquez’s median outcome. It’s because of the innings. If Grayson was an established starter in the majors and primed for 180 frames this year, then it wouldn’t be close. He’d blow Marquez out of the water. Instead, he might not even get the chance to outscore Marquez due to workload restrictions:
Yikes. Not only are Rodriguez’s total innings going to be capped in his rookie year, but they could be limited on a per-start basis as well. In the above quote Connolly specifically says Rodriguez might not be allowed “to get through the 5th initially.” The fifth! That kills any shot at earning a win, let alone a quality start. And if G-Rod isn’t doing that, then really what good is he to your Underdog team?
This is a young arm who pitched just 75 2/3 innings last season while missing several months due to a Grade 2 lat strain. Even before that Baltimore was cautious with him. In 2021 he pitched into the sixth inning just once. He’s only done that seven times total over the past two years, and none of those outings came against big league hitters.
Rodriguez is eventually going to be great. He might even be great this season, but if so it’ll be on a per-start/per-inning basis. No matter how special one thinks Grayson will be long-term, it’s just going to be so hard for him to really matter on Underdog in 2023.
German Marquez, Rockies
Underdog ADP: 215.3 (SP72)
Tuma Rank: 176
Projection: 871 points
Then there’s Colorado’s “ace”, who I’m not even going to bother writing an upside case for because Marquez is a known commodity at this point. And truthfully, his upside case is irrelevant.
Marquez got a lot of fantasy analysts excited in the second half of 2018, posting a superb 28.4 K-BB% with a 2.61 ERA. “Perhaps he learned how to navigate Coors” we thought. Nope. He’s logged a 4.40 ERA or worse in each of the past three full seasons.
Marquez is particularly unappealing for roto formats due to his hideous ratios (the aforementioned 4.40 career ERA and his 1.29 WHIP). Even though he’s durable, these stats drag down the results of your pitching staff in categories leagues. He doesn’t generate a ton of wins pitching for the Rockies, and the volume strikeouts simply aren’t worth his subpar ratios.
Then there’s the home/road splits. Like most Colorado pitchers, Marquez is much worse at Coors — career 5.08 ERA at home; 3.76 on the road. Some might think this is easy to manage and that fantasy players in managed leagues can start Marquez on the road while benching him at home. It isn’t always that easy, however. For example, if he has a 2-start week in a weekly lineup format, then a tough decision needs to be made if he’s splitting home and road appearances.
Furthermore, there are too many situations where Marquez shines in Colorado (7 innings of 1-run ball last April) and gets lit up on the road (5 earned runs in Washington last May). It can be maddening to pick and choose the correct spots to start him.
Best Ball solves that problem. If Marquez is on your roster then he’s always an option to be one of your three “starting” SPs at the end of the week, depending on how your rotation performs. If Marquez gets lit up there’s little downside since he was a very late pick and because he can’t hurt you. There are no “ratios to protect” on UD.
Now let’s circle back to his durability. Since 2018 Marquez’s 813 1/3 innings are the 5th most in all of baseball - and remember how important pure innings are for Underdog.
Also, he has exactly 17 quality starts in each of the past two seasons. While he gets destroyed in his bad outings, Marquez is given the opportunity to go 6-plus when he’s cruising, something Rodriguez might not even get the chance to do. My projection for Marquez includes only 13 QS for 2023, so there’s some room to grow based on what he has done the past two years.
Why This Debate Matters
When I first posted that tweet Sunday it was meant to function as a fun thought exercise. Upon further looking into it, however, I realized the question shines a light on my fundamental draft philosophy for Underdog’s MLB Best Ball contests.
The truth is that neither of these players are likely to factor into how the season plays out. Grayson, as discussed, might fall short on both weekly and season-long volume, cutting off his chances at being one of your 3 highest scoring pitchers every week.
Marquez’s case to be drafted at all is entirely built on his floor. At best, he’s your 6th/7th starting pitcher who fills in as a weekly option if you’re dealing with injuries.
But this isn’t about these two specific players remember.
Perhaps the least discussed aspect of Underdog’s baseball tournaments is that your roster is limited to just 20 spots. No in-season waivers or trades. No injury insurance. 20 roster spots. That’s it.
We therefore need to maximize every single one of them. The opportunity cost of “wasting” a pick on Rodriguez or an Elly De La Cruz type is too high. Drafters often view the later rounds as an opportunity to “sell out for upside” and “take a chance” on a high-variance player. In managed leagues that is EXACTLY what you should do, because if it doesn’t work out you can just drop that player - and your entire roster will be overhauled throughout the summer.
We don’t have that luxury on UD. There are still useful players going in Round 20, so the endgame of drafts should be about raising your team’s floor. Injuries will happen and players will under perform. By the time the Underdog playoffs roll around most pitching staffs are decimated.
Your early-round picks are going to be the ones most often hitting on spike weeks. Your late-round picks are there to keep the water afloat when things go wrong. There are some interesting “upside-y” targets late in drafts, such as Triston Casas and Miguel Vargas, but they each come with a floor as well. G-Rod doesn’t.
I’m prepared to take the L on Marquez if he absolutely implodes this season. But he’s just my example being used as part of a bigger conversation. Patrick Sandoval, Alex Cobb, and Marcus Stroman, among others, are other “boring/late” starters who fit the description.
Maybe Marquez isn’t the exact player you need to win Underdog baseball tournaments this season, but he’s the exact type of player you should be gravitating towards in the later rounds of drafts.