Buying Opportunities on the Rays
Big trades are the most fun ones to make in fantasy sports. Star player for star player, prospects for a big name veteran, future picks for that final trade deadline acquisition to push you over the top. You know what they look like.
But it takes multiple types of winning transactions in order to win a fantasy baseball championship. It’s encouraged to make minor moves if they upgrade our roster, and we should always have a large pool of players we’re willing to trade for.
With that in mind, I’ll periodically be writing about players I think are offseason buy/sell candidates. This will be done as I go through my end-of-season research process.
I’ve already touched on 4 young arms with hidden value. Sometimes these articles will cover big-name stars. And sometimes you’ll get a couple of lesser known infielders on the Rays. The goal, as always, is to identify value.
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays
One of the streakiest hitters in baseball, Lowe’s 2021 was a tale of two halves. In the first half, he hit .208 with a .782 OPS. In the second half, he hit .291 with a .959 OPS.
Entering 2022, this was a case where full-season statistics are more predictive than half-season statistics, no matter how badly some might’ve wanted to believe he “figured things out” in the later part of ‘21 and extrapolating those numbers over a full year.
Furthermore, the way to which Lowe reached his full-season stats is worth discussing. As a streaky hitter, he can really test your patience, especially when he gets off to a cold start like he did last year. When healthy, it’s best to just “set and forget” him into your lineup. Lowe’s streakiness also plays better for roto formats. The useful stats will be there by the end of the year. Just close your eyes and don’t micro manage his playing time.
The key to that last paragraph is “when healthy” since Lowe struggled with back pain during 2022 and was recently shut down for the season. He received a cortisone shot and in September and will aim to return a new man next spring.
The injuries limited him to just 65 games, a .221 average, and a .383 SLG. Somehow, it still added up to a 104 wRC+. There’s always risk with how the Rays will handle position players, but Lowe projects as one of Tampa Bay’s best bats in 2023, with his .359 wOBA (per ZiPS) just behind Wander Franco’s .362 projection.
At the end of the day, the ever-streaky Lowe is someone to buy coming off down years and a player to sell coming off big seasons. Note that he’ll lose outfield eligibility heading into ‘23, but 2B should once again be quite shallow, so he’s a perfect late-round target in redraft if you don’t fill the position early.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B/2B/3B, Rays
The 24-year-old Aranda currently ranks 70th on Baseball America’ Top 100 Prospects list and 100th on MLB Pipeline’s. It’s a nice achievement for a player who wasn’t exactly on the prospect radar entering the spring.
Aranda’s absence from preseason prospect lists was entirely due to the lack of a true defensive home. From Baseball America, where he ranked 20th on Tampa bay’s preseason list:
“Aranda's issue is finding a defensive home. Aranda is below-average defensively wherever he plays. He's best at first base, where his lack of range is less noticeable. He has well below-average range at second or third. He also played left field in winter ball in Mexico.”
However, Aranda can hit, which is what us fantasy players primarily care about. After posting the 4th best wRC+ (164) and the 9th highest batting average (.330) in the minors a year ago, Aranda totaled a 142 wRC+ in Triple-A this year, which ranked 2nd among all qualified bats.
Note that his rise has been similar to Jose Miranda’s who might be considered the ‘21 version of Aranda — a major league caliber bat without any defensive tools.
Though it’s been just 70 plate appearances in the majors entering Wednesday, Aranda’s skills have already been validated while recording a 120 wRC+. This is a cerebral hitter who works counts and has a short, crisp path through the zone. Notably, he’d have the 7th lowest chase rate (22.9%) and the 18th lowest swinging strike rate (6.6%) in all of baseball if he had the playing time to qualify.
Aranda has also been serving as an unconventional leadoff man for the Rays at times lately, though this team will always be shuffling the batting order both season-to-season and throughout the year. The last point to make here is that nobody should expect Aranda to suddenly become a league winner. Playing for Tampa as a left-handed bat, he will surely be platooned early on.
This is the type of player whose value comes from adding him when he’s free on waivers or in a trade, not someone to buy high on.
