Dynasty First Base Rankings Takeaways

Diagnosing the Vlad Jr. enigma while staying level-headed on Torkelson and Steer

Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty first base rankings.

The full rankings, including position-by-position lists and the Top 100 overall, can be found on Patreon here.

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1. Bryce Harper, Phillies

That’s right, not only is Bryce Harper first base eligible in 2024, but he’s my No. 1 player at the position for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues.

And we just found out, per Dave Dombrowski, that Harper will primarily play first base moving forward.

Of course, the reason he had to switch positions at all was initially due to his elbow injury, which dates back to midway through 2022. Harper famously returned ahead of schedule in ‘23, and he wasn’t himself early on. Then this happened:

The last time we saw Harper healthy for a full season in 2021, he had a .305 ISO. That can’t be the expectation since he has a career .240 mark, but the past two years he’s been at .227 and .206.

He was at .342 in August and September.

Harper is fully back, as he demonstrated that throughout the playoffs. Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman are also great, and you can split hairs between them and Harper in the top-3.

The choice, for me, is baseball’s chosen one.

4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

Entering 2022 Vlad Jr. famously said:

“Last year was the trailer. What you are going to see this year is the movie.”

It didn’t go well.

I appreciated that he was once again honest in the offseason about what went wrong, similar to how he reflected on his 2020 letdown.

He said that in 2022 he was trying to do too much, and was actively going to work on chasing less this past season.

Mission accomplished?

Vladito was able to improve his O-swing%, but he didn’t reach 2021 levels of patience. He improved his ground ball rate, but not his barrel rate. Why?

Here’s where Vlad did damage in 2021:

And here’s where he has been pitched in 2022-23:

I think this is why he talked about trying to do too much in ‘22. He was being pitched differently, and tried doing damage anyways.

In ‘23, he began trying to adjust back, but it’s a work in progress.

While Vlad was able to hit a lot more oppo homers in 2021, I don’t think everything can be placed on the “juiced ball”, as the drag wasn’t noticeably more drastic that season compared to 2022-23.

Of course, there’s also the idea that Vlad simply took advantage of playing in minor league parks as home games during the first half of 2021.

Through July 29th of that season he put up a 186 wRC+.

Afterwards, once the team returned to Toronto, he registered a 135 wRC+, which is more in line with his 2022-23 self.

I generally dismiss this idea, as I feel his struggles since then have been more about adjusting back to pitchers rather than him simply taking advantage of Dunedin and Buffalo.

Mike Petriello of MLB.com wrote about it in August of this year, and noted that while the MiLB parks may have helped a little, Vlad still raked in Toronto in 2021.

I highly recommend reading that linked Petriello piece, but you might come away just as frustrated as I am to still be writing about all this. There’s no easy answer.

I take note of the wrist and knee issues Petriello points out, in addition to his struggles against fastballs and Toronto’s new park dimensions. The most likely answer is that his 2023 performance was due to a variety of factors. I’ll close with this, his wOBA and xwOBA by year:

I think Vladdy did make adjustments this past summer, but some minor injuries and the home park prevented him from fully realizing them.

In other words, he ran bad.

And maybe 2021 is never coming back. That could be his peak-season. But he’ll be 25 next year and I believe he’s better than what he’s shown us lately. If he’s healthy come spring, I’ll be in.

6. Triston Casas, Red Sox

That was a lot of words (and time spent) on just two players. If you’re interested in expanded Casas thoughts, I covered him more in-depth in my “What I Got Right” piece a few weeks ago:

7. Cody Bellinger, Cubs

Similarly, Bellinger was covered in my “What I Got Wrong” article.

I stand by my overall thesis that Bellinger improved in ‘23, but he also “got lucky” or “ran pure” on top of that. And I’ve since seen even more evidence that Belli over performed last season, courtesy of Ryan Bloomfield’s and KC Bubba’s live podcast during First Pitch Arizona:

There’s a lot of nuance that goes into HR/barrel, and I’ll be writing about it this offseason. For now, just know that Bellinger’s inclusion on that list isn’t a good thing. He isn’t bad. Just keep expectations in check for 2024 and beyond.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Keeping Goldschmidt ahead of the next name we’ll discuss is a clear sign that these rankings lean win-now.

It would be easy to write off Goldy entering his age-36 campaign, following the major step back he took from 2022 to 2023, but there are some caveats to that statement.

For one, Goldschmidt was otherworldly in his MVP-winning 2022. Regression was expected, which is why I didn’t predict him in my first two rounds of 2024 ADP this past March.

In ‘22 Goldy registered a preposterous 176 wRC+, drastically over performing his Statcast data. That isn’t to say it was all a fluke, since he pulled a career-best 27.7% of his fly balls. That not only helps hitters over perform Statcast metrics, but Goldy also recorded a .368 BABIP. It was a season that seemed to randomly favor right-handed hitters in St. Louis. Monstrous runs (106) and RBI (115) totals added to the fantasy goodness.

In ‘23 Goldy didn’t pull as many fly balls. His .327 BABIP was a step back. His .350 wOBA fell below expectations of his .367 xwOBA — the exact same xwOBA he posted in 2022! His ‘23 xSLG was a tick higher than what he recorded as an MVP.

When combined with his swing decisions (slightly more chase in ‘23 but nothing drastic) I don’t view Goldschmidt as a player in rapid decline. 2022 was exceptional, and “lucky” to a certain degree. 2023 was a recalibration, but I’m betting that this future Hall-of-Famer is going to gracefully enter his late-30s. He’s still good! Sometimes the older/boring players nobody wants come with the best dynasty price tags.

10. Spencer Torkelson, Tigers

The former 1.01 draft selection made the exact improvements we were hoping to see from him in 2023, likely thanks to wielding a lighter bat in his sophomore season.

While so many of his metrics remained static year-over-year, Torkelson’s pulled fly ball rate sky rocketed:

• 2022: 19.6%

• 2023: 30.1%

The slugging first baseman was especially hot down the stretch, slashing .264/.342/.563 from August 12th through the end of the season, flashing the immense upside he carries with his bat.

Unfortunately, Tork still plays half his games in Comerica Park, where he popped just 11 of his 31 homers this past year. His OPS fell from .816 on the road to just .697 at home. I prefer to see him do it for a full season in that park before going all-in, but it’s easy to envision a scenario where he’s top-6 at his position at this time next year.

15. Spencer Steer, Reds

As a prospect Steer was equally praised and criticized for being well-rounded without any standout skills.

Even now, post-2023 breakout, we’re all viewing Steer as a super solid, multi-position fantasy asset who does a little bit of everything.

He’ll be eligible at 1B/3B/OF on most platforms next season, and also 2B on sites with a lower eligibility threshold.

Despite not possessing plus power he managed to contribute 23 homers and 15 stolen bases, taking advantage of 665 plate appearances (31st most in MLB), over half of which came in offense-friendly Great American Ballpark.

This is where the concerns come in. He’s the anti-Torkelson when considering his surrounding environment. And it’d be one thing if we could bank on that playing time yet again, but the Reds have a surplus of quality young position players and are ready to start winning. Any slippage in performance could mean he gets squeezed out, making Steer a more volatile fantasy option than managers would prefer. Just be careful not to buy overly high!

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