Projecting the First Two Rounds of 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Tatis back in the top 3? Corbin Carroll to Round 2? How many pitchers are taken inside the top-24?
I first got the idea for this article when listening to one of my favorite fantasy football podcasts, Stealing Bananas.
Right before the NFL season Ben and Shawn published an episode projecting Round 1 of fantasy drafts for the following year. The idea is that if we play redraft with more of a “dynasty lens” — by betting on young, high-end talents — we can wind up hitting on the most profitable draft picks.
Consider Bobby Witt Jr. around this time last year. Yes, he was already going in the 6th-7th round, which was aggressive. But if he hit, then he’d likely be a Round 1-2 player heading into 2023, and that’s exactly what happened.
I think this next point applies more to football and aging running backs, but we also want to factor in the inverse. Paul Goldschmidt is 35 right now. Max Scherzer is 38. Justin Verlander is 40! What do their seasons need to look like in order for them to be going at the top of drafts again next year? Because if we can’t realistically see them with similar ADPs next spring, then that must mean they under performed in 2023 or missed time.
Luckily none of those 3 are going in Round 1 this season, so the cost isn’t that extreme. The point of this exercise also isn’t just about Rounds 1-2. It’s to get us thinking about upside and downside in a different way. It’s also meant to be fun. With all this in mind, here’s my 2024 fantasy baseball Rounds 1-2 mock draft:
Note these ADP projections (meant to be fun and nothing more!!) are for 12-team roto leagues.
1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
Judge is my No. 1 player for 2023 fantasy baseball (for roto, H2H, and on Underdog) so it only makes sense that I’d project him to come in at the top spot next season.
Yes, you’re most likely sacrificing steals even after Judge surprisingly swiped 16 in his contract year. He could steal zero, though, and I’d still take him here. He’s a legit 4-category superstar otherwise. The underrated aspect of Judge’s roto game is that he’s hit .287 and .311 in each of the past two seasons while he’s a career .284 hitter.
More importantly, he gives you such a monstrous lead with homers, RBIs, and runs scored. These stats correlate well together, and HR/RBI in particular are becoming more scarce with the conclusion of the Juiced Ball Era.
This can be most easily seen by observing the recent trend in league-wide homer-to-fly ball rate. 2022 homer output was similar to 2015, and it’s clear we’re moving further away from the insane 2019 campaign. That season, 58 (!!) players hit 30 homers. In 2022 just 23 accomplished the same feat.
Judge hit a whopping 16 more homers than the second-place finisher last summer. That’s unlikely to occur again, but he’s still the most bankable source of power in fantasy leagues, which is suddenly the hardest category to fill later in drafts.
2. Ronald Acuña, OF, Braves
Acuña is my No. 2 player this season, so similar to Judge I have him repeating that draft slot in 2024.
The market is showing some faith that the 25-year-old superstar rebounds to his pre-2022 form this year, fresh off a season in which he posted career-worst numbers across the board.
Acuña’s ISO, wRC+, and stolen base success rate all fell considerably while his grounder rate spiked. We saw flashes of his former self and he still ran often. It’s also easy to give him a pass after his 2021 ACL tear.
Acuña on August 4th last year:
“It’s all part of the process & I’m hoping for better days. But I have to say, for example, the knee with my swings, it doesn’t always feel the same. Some days I have confidence in it, some days I don’t feel like I have confidence in it, and it’s not the same."
Later in August he said this:
“They explained to me that this is just going to be part of the procedure and part of the process of coming back and everything,” Acuña said through a team interpreter before Sunday night’s series finale at St. Louis, the second consecutive game (and loss) he was held out of because of knee issues. “To be honest, it was some pretty intense pains over the past couple of days. And this is just all something that I’ve never really experienced before in my life, so it’s all new to me.
“And so with that, that’s why we’re just kind of taking it easy and just trying to get away from that a little bit.”
By the time he returned to the lineup that month he was talking about how this was an issue to “play through it until the season’s over.”
Finally healthy, Acuña is a prime candidate to post a berzerk 40/40 season in 2023.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr, OF, Padres
I’m mostly fading Tatis in 2023 just due to the missed time and possible rust he could be shaking off after having not played since October 2021. Don’t discount the surgeries he’s had as any other cleanup procedure. He had his wrist operated on twice (from the motorcycle accident), and once the suspension kicked in last summer he finally got that labrum surgery. Wrists and shoulders are two important body parts for hitters, especially ones as athletic as Tatis.
He’s someone where if you play in multiple leagues it makes sense to get at least one share, but he isn’t a player I want to be overexposed to in ‘23. I’ve also taken some “under” bets on his season-long props.
The projection systems absolutely love him, but that’s because he was genuinely amazing the last time we saw him play. In 2021 he led the National League with 42 homers in just 130 games, while also swiping 25 bases. He has a career 153 wRC+ and we’ve never seen him perform poorly at the major league level.
The way I see this shaking out is that there are some “lows” throughout ‘23 but also enough flashes of dominance that drafters can’t resist the upside come this time next year. Also note he’s likely to only be eligible as an outfielder by then!
4. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
The outfield run continues with J-Rod as yet another power-speed source that drafters always covet in the first half of Round 1. Per THE BAT X, J-rod is one of just five players projected to go 25/25 this season.
There really isn’t much more analysis needed. The reigning American League ROY is such an obviously ascending player entering his (checks notes) age-22 season!!
A future candidate for the next “face of baseball”, the market is always going to be higher on such a dynamic talent. It’s also incredibly fun to roster him just so you can message your group chat “Julioooooo!” whenever he does something awesome.
5. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros
If Julio is arguably the most fun player one can roster in fantasy, what does that make Tucker? Boring excellence? Dull greatness? Or is it best to simply view him as a damn good baseball player?
Tucker realistically meets all those descriptions, and he continues the theme of Acuña/Tatis/J-Rod style picks where drafters want to bank a potential 30-30 player as early as possible.
It’ll likely be justifiable to take him ahead of J-Rod even. Tucker provides more RBI; Julio more runs scored. Otherwise they’re pretty even, unless Julio takes the leap. For now, don’t let Tucker fall too far in ‘23 drafts as there might not be a discount come this time next year.
6. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians
By the time 2024 drafts roll around, J-Ram will be entering his age-31 season. He ran hot in RBIs last year and “only” stole 20 bases (though his sprint speed has yet to start declining). I’m so tempted to knock him down a few more spots in this exercise, but I simply have too much respect for his body of work, and I think the market will use that as a reason to take him here as well.
Ramirez is as “safe” of an early-round stud as we have in this game. He’s come through for fantasy managers year after year and now plays one of our more shallow positions.
An annual leader in pulled fly ball percentage, Ramirez is well equipped to continue mashing in the post-Juiced Ball Era. I could see this approach helping him age well similar to how Paul Goldschmidt has throughout his 30s.
7. Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
One of these days Turner’s speed is going to regress a bit, and I’m not sure I want to be left holding the bag. He’ll also be entering his age-31 season at this time next year, but in 2022 his sprint speed was still top-5 in MLB.
I think I’m making my “age point” enough by placing Acuña/Tatis/Julio/Tucker ahead of J-Ram and Turner, so I don’t want to go too far with it. Trea is a known commodity. He produces year after year, and he even has potential upside if the new, SB-favorable rules allow him to run wild. If anyone is going to steal 50 this year, wouldn’t Turner be on the short list of most likely candidates?
8. Shohei Ohtani, UTIL/SP, Angels
I took Ohtani (the batter version on Yahoo!) in my home league this season, brushing off concerns of taking a UTIL-only bat with my first pick in exchange for what I believe could be a truly special season for the best baseball player alive.
After watching the WBC, I’m quite happy to roster him, but I’ll admit there were a couple of times during the remainder of my draft where I felt “pinched” from clogging up a UTIL spot. It isn’t so much that there was somebody else I wanted to put there, but more that I felt “behind” on filling some shallow positions.
And yet, I’d do again if the opportunity presented itself. On other platforms mangers might have the luxury of occasionally moving Ohtani to SP, a part of his game that he’ll probably get even better at in 2023.
ESPECIALLY after his WBC heroics, Ohtani is the face of baseball right now. He’s set to earn a $400 million ($500M?!) contract after this season if everything goes according to plan. There’s potential for a 45/25 season with thousands of “OHTANI!!!” tweets gracing your timeline throughout the summer. In 12-teamers, in particular, I’m forecasting that the market thinks he’s just too good to get hung up on the UTIL-only designation at this point in drafts.
9. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros
These next three can be lumped together as we’ve reached the point in Round 1 where drafters might prefer pure power production over the need for steals.
Alvarez’s Statcast page is truly wondrous to look at. While I personally believe the fantasy community has gone too far with simply touting a player based on these colorful sliders, which all correlate with each other and could use some customization, it’s still astounding to see a hitter so wonderfully dominant when it comes to impacting the ball.
In 2021 Alvarez posted a .369 wOBA with a .389 xwOBA. In 2022 he checked in with a .427 wOBA and a .462 xwOBA. Is it possible he’s been leaving some meat on the bone these past two seasons? If he positively regresses in 2023 he’ll likely be drafted closer to the middle of Round 1. He absolutely has a case as the best hitter in baseball, as does….
10. Juan Soto, OF, Padres
A telling campaign is coming for the 24-year-old as he settles into his first full season with the Padres. Soto’s legendary plate discipline remained sticky in 2022, but his triple slash line cratered, especially when compared to his bonkers 2020 run.
That .351/.490/.695 (!!) slash line from the shortened season was always going to be impossible to live up to, but the ‘21 version of Soto came as close as one could reasonably expect with a .313/.465/.534 line.
Last season he hit just .242/.401/.452, though. He currently owns a .309 career BABIP, but had a .249 mark in a season split between the Nationals and Padres. His ISO didn’t fall that far from his 2021 number, and he actually hit less grounders than usual, so what gives?
The above graphic shows where he was pitched in ‘22 and it’s clear that opposing pitchers were targeting him low and away, which is where he struggles most. This led to Soto pulling just 18.5% of his fly balls, which was a bottom-30 mark in the league among hitters with at least 100 fly ball events.
The deeper I dig into Soto’s struggles last year the more I end up throwing my hands in the air. I do think he needs to make an adjustment to hit for more power in the future and I don’t love his style of play for roto leagues (he obviously gets a huge boost in OBP formats).
But still, he was unlucky last season when looking at his BABIP and expected stats, and I’m ultimately willing to give a hitter this young and this special a pass. Vlad Jr. is a better bet for four-category production this season, but position scarcity is just relevant enough that I see Soto coming in a spot ahead of him entering ‘24.
11. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B, Blue Jays
I hadn’t realized before writing this but Vlad’s 2022 story was quite similar to Soto’s as top-5 picks who under performed while still having solid, above-average seasons.
The comparison extends when noticing that opposing arms increased their low-and-away offerings from 24.9% in 2021 to a 29.4% clip in ‘22. Vlad’s chase rate went up, which caused his grounder rate to rise again, and his BB% to fall.
Too often we describe the need for hitters to lift the ball more as a “launch angle issue” when in reality launch angle, and therefore hard-hit rate, can increase with better pitch selection. Guerrero admitted this spring that he was trying to do too much last year. I’m betting on the still-ascending star to adjust in his age-24 season.
12. Bobby Witt Jr, SS, Royals
The plan is for Witt to be the everyday shortstop in ‘23, which will cost him 3B eligibility next year. That hurts his value a tick, but not enough to drop him out of Round 1. It’s always possible someone prefers the speed over the Yordan/Soto/Vlad tier as well.
Witt’s skill set is volatile and that makes him a polarizing player to analyze. On the one hand, he went 20/30 as a rookie despite struggling terribly in April. On the other hand, he posted a .722 OPS with a 99 wRC+. It’s as fantasy-friendly of a skill set as we’ve seen in quite a while.
Witt’s athleticism allows him to make contact with pitches on ones he otherwise shouldn’t be able to. That’s great, but it’s always scary betting on a high chase rate. Luckily, he improved as the year went on:
There’s a chance Witt finishes the No. 1 overall player this season with a massive steals campaign thanks to his top-5 MLB sprint speed. There’s also a chance he continues expanding the zone too often and the Royals’ offense destroys his counting stats upside.
I think that even if he only repeats his rookie year production then he’ll be in the mix at the 2/3 turn. My projection of him at the 1/2 turn factors in some improvement from the 22-year-old, but not enough to where he’s a top-5 choice just yet.
13. Mike Trout, Angels
This would be a fun combo to take at the turn, pairing Trout’s league-leading HR upside with Witt’s league-leading SB potential. Once a dynamic, all-around stud comparable to Acuña/Tatis/J-Rod, present day-Trout is really more of a beefy slugger statistically.
He finished 2022 with 40 HRs in 119 games (499 PA). If he qualified he’d have ranked 2nd in ISO (.347), 4th in wRC+ (176), and 3rd in OPS (.999). This was fueled by a crazy spike in his fly ball rate all the way up to 56.7%. For reference, he has a career 42.3% rate but has trended more “air ball heavy” in recent seasons.
The flip side of this change in approach is that his .369 OBP was well below his career .415 mark. After posting an 18.5 BB% from 2017-21, that number dropped to 10.8% in ‘22.
There’s also the issue of the “rare back condition” that he was diagnosed with in July. Apparently it’s something he’ll be dealing with for the rest of his career, but clearly he found a way to manage it in the short term — upon returning from the diagnosis he performed 92% better than league average. Ha!
I’m thinking he plays around 130 games this season, and that the power production will be special enough to warrant an early-second round click from drafters next spring.
14. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
…Or maybe drafters will be seduced by the next big thing. To be clear, this projected draft slot for Carroll doesn’t mean I expect him to out-perform Mookie Betts in 2023.
It does mean that I think he’ll be really good, and that the market will want to give him a Year 2 bump similar to the one Witt is receiving now.
We know Carroll is the fastest player in baseball, and we know there are about to be new rules in place to encourage more base stealing. Could he steal 35 this year? 40 or more? I’m not ruling it out.
What’s a little more unknown is Carroll’s power potential in the big leagues. He ran some truly absurd ISOs in the minors, but Arizona’s Double-A and Triple-A parks are two of the most hitter friendly environments in all of Minor League Baseball, per MiLB park factors.
Some are concerned that his max EV with the D’Backs last September was only 107.5 mph, but max EV is an opportunity stat in small samples, and Carroll didn’t have much time in the majors. He’s already hit a ball 109.1 mph this spring, for instance.
Even if Carroll “only” hits 15 homers and steals 30 bases this year, I’m betting the market will sell out for a potential 20/40 campaign entering ‘24.
15. Mookie Betts, OF, Dodgers
Since his bonkers 2018 MVP year, Mookie’s wRC+ has stayed between 130 and 147 in each of the past four seasons. He’s essentially a slightly older version of Tucker’s “boring excellence” package, albeit with a lower floor/ceiling for stolen bases.
Still, there’s a ton of value in Betts’ proven track record while showing zero signs of decline. And he’s only entering his age-30 season in 2023. There’s always whispers that he might play more 2B as well. If he ever enters draft season with that eligibility he could end up going as high as the middle of Round 1.
16. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
17. Manny Machado, 3B, Padres
18. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
This is the point of the draft where I think pitchers could begin to be considered, and there will certainly be drafts where an SP or two go earlier than this, but I’m betting that I’ll once again be vouching for a hitter-heavy approach in the first few rounds.
Entering last year I wrote a piece titled “Why the Middle Tier of Starting Pitchers Has Grown Entering 2022 Fantasy Baseball Drafts.” We saw that play out in ‘22 - and with the Juiced Ball Era behind us it’s what I’m anticipating we see again in ‘23.
Anyways, this trio of picks all happen to play one of fantasy’s most shallow positions this season. That doesn’t mean 3B will remain scarce entering ‘24, but if it does then the market will be eager not to make the same mistake twice.
There isn’t a ton else to add. Devers, Machado, and Riley are all known commodities at this point. They’re in their primes. And the 3B pool could also worsen without Witt’s eligibility next year.
19. Michael Harris, OF, Braves
I’m squeezing in just one more position player before pivoting to any pitchers. Depending how Harris’ year goes he could be drafted as early as Witt/Carroll next spring, or he could fall to the Mullins/Arozarena range of outfielders.
Again, expect the market to bake in some enthusiasm for a young player as long as he doesn’t heavily regress from his 2022 Rookie of the Year campaign. Here’s your sign to remain bullish on his sophomore season:
Max EV: 80th in MLB
95th EV: 26th
Avg EV: 143rd
What this means is he's consistently great at reaching his 95th percentile EV (which we know to be sticky), while his average EV is weighed down (likely) due to a bunch of mishits while chasing out of the zone. And here’s what happened to his chase rate throughout ‘22:
The key to Harris’ upside moving forward is to continue being more selective at the plate. He has the power. He has the speed. He just needs to consistently swing at the right pitches, and then let his talent do the rest.
20. Shane McClanahan, SP, Rays
Pitcher time! I profiled Shane O’Mac a bit deeper in a recent dynasty rankings takeaways piece. I’m convinced he was trending towards being a top-3 SP for 2023 ADP before his late-season shoulder impingement. Here are his numbers through August 24th:
147 1/3 IP
2.20 ERA (4th in MLB)
2.64 FIP (4th)
32.5 K% (1st)
27.1 K-BB% (1st)
16.3 SwStr% (1st)
Yes, his first attempt at shouldering a full-season workload ended in an injury, but in today’s landscape it usually takes young arms multiple years to establish themselves as workhorse aces.
If McClanahan stays on his ‘22 pace this season and makes it through unscathed, his age-track record combination will make him the new Corbin Burnes in my humble (potentially biased?) opinion.
21. Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
If I’m picking Strider for the 2023 NL Cy, then I have to put him ahead of Burnes here, right?
Here’s the simplest case for being so bullish on the 2020 fourth-rounder out of Clemson — as a rookie last season he posted the 9th best K-BB% since 2001 (min. 130 IP). Using the same innings threshold he also had the 3rd highest K% and the 2nd best K/9 of all time.
There was recently a great Eno Sarris analysis about whether or not Strider can continue having this level of success with just 2 pitches, and I lean towards yes as long as his fastball/slider remain this dominant.
The 24-year-old struck out 202 batters in just 131 2/3 innings last season. If he logs 150-160 frames this year, could he strike out 240? And at that point aren’t we essentially talking about deGrom-type upside but 10 years younger?
22. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers
23. Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees
Here we circle back to the top-2 starters by ‘23 ADP. Similar to my views on the 3B trio from Round 2, I don’t have a ton of analysis here. Burnes and Cole are both amazing and there’s zero reason to expect that to change over the course of the this calendar year.
They’re established horses without much injury risk and will enter 2024 still in their primes. They could certainly hover around the 1/2 turn once again, but my personal philosophy prevents me from passing on the elite hitters until midway through Round 2.
24. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Bichette was Witt/Harris before Witt/Harris — a young power-speed threat who expands the zone too often and is (probably) a better fantasy baseball roto player than a real life. Here’s each of their 2022 chase rates:
Witt: 37.3%
Bichette: 38.6%
Harris: 41.7%
All three players were in the top-35 for highest chase rates in the league last season (min. 400 PAs). Barring improvements over the next several seasons, I’m bearish on these players aging well into their late-20s and early-30s.
That’s a problem for the future, though, because right now they’re all still young/athletic enough to steal bases and make quality contact on pitches outside the zone. Bichette falls a bit later in Round 2 since there’s still a “tantalizing unknown” quality to the two ‘22 rookies.
Honorable Mentions
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins
Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
Players Falling Out of the First Two Rounds of 2023
Freeman (12.9 ADP)
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets (18.9 ADP)
Goldschmidt (23.2 ADP)
JT Realmuto, C, Phillies (26.8 ADP in 2-catcher NFBC leagues)
Final Thoughts
No, I don’t think Freeman and Goldschmidt will bust in 2023, but by this time next year they’ll each be another year older, and that isn’t nothing.
More importantly, I expect the industry to come around to the idea that first base is DEEP in a post-Juiced Ball world. Positional scarcity matters again and it feels like I’m back to playing fantasy baseball as a kid in the mid-2000s. “Slugging” 1B types are just more common later in drafts while standout 2B/3B/OF are more scarce.
I’d have no issue with anyone putting Freeman/Alonso/Goldy and maybe Olson (?) towards the end of Round 2 over some aces. It’s just hard to separate them a year in advance. Remember - the middle class of starting pitcher is also once again very deep (Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman in Round 5!).
Oneil Cruz could be a Round 1 talent if he improves his contact rate. His ridiculous upside means I need to include him among the honorable mentions, but I’m just bearish enough on his K% that I couldn’t put him over Bichette or the aces to close out the top-24.