Dynasty Outfield Rankings Takeaways (Part 2)
Jasson Dominguez bounces back, Taylor Ward provides stability, and Emmanuel Rodriguez could sky rocket
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty outfield rankings.
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38. Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox
Chaim Bloom gave Yoshida a 5-year, $90 million contract this offseason, and the immediate reception from MLB insiders wasn’t the best, with one exec claiming the 29-year-old to be worth “less than half of that.”
Since then all the public-facing projection systems have been released, and the results are staggering:
Steamer: 140 wRC+ (10th in MLB!!)
THE BAT X: 128 wRC+ (31st)
ZiPS DC: 137 wRC+ (22nd)
ATC: 127 wRC+ (42nd)
It’s interesting that the aggregator (ATC) is the lowest on him, but I think it’s more important to focus on the wRC+ values over the league-wide ranks (even though those are still strong). Essentially, the worst projection system still has Yoshida as being 27% better than league average.
I put Yoshida 6th in my 2023 FYPD rankings, and while his age makes him more interesting for contending dynasty teams, he shouldn’t be completely dismissed by rebuilding clubs.
Coming over from Japan, the variance in his range of outcomes feels a lot bigger than what the different projection systems forecast, but that shouldn’t mean we only focus on the downside. If Yoshida hits the ground running while (likely) hitting leadoff and playing half his games at BABIP-assisting Fenway Park, then his value could still rise even as he approaches his 30th birthday this July.
40. Jasson Dominguez, Yankees
The Martian. The Mickey Mantle comparisons. Best international prospect ever. Forget about that — all of it.
There’s no doubt the hype got out of control for a bit, but the best way to properly value Dominguez moving forward is to only judge him on how he’s actually performed since debuting in pro ball.
After a modest showing at Low-A in 2021, Dominguez was off to a slow start while repeating the level this past spring. Through May 5th he was hitting .209/.253/.314 with hideous plate discipline (34.1 K%, 5.5 BB%). His stock appeared to be at an all-time low.
Then from May 6th through September 10th he slashed .298/.410/.503 with a 22.1 K% and a 15.3 BB%. This included a promotion to High-A in mid-July, followed by another bump to Double-A in mid-September where Dominguez helped Somerset win their league championship. He went 9-for-20 with 3 homers, 5 walks, and 10 RBI in 5 postseason games. He also homered from both sides of the plate in the team’s Championship Game 3 victory.
It was the culmination of a year of growth for Dominguez, who despite playing the entire season at 19 years old showed an ability to adapt and improve. He certainly isn’t a “bust” when comparing him to other top international signings who completely flame out. He has power, speed, and knows how to draw a walk. The price could once again rise quickly if he starts ‘23 how he ended ‘22.
41. Taylor Ward, Angels
Through May 29th Ward was one of the best hitters in baseball, slashing .359/.472/.709 with a 21.1 K% and a 17.6 BB%. It was a heroic performance for anyone who added him off waivers early in the season.
Then through August 23rd he hit .207/.287/.307 with a 23.9 K% and an 8.8 BB%. Finally, he closed by by slashing .353/.397/.579 with a 15.8 K% and a 7.5 BB%.
It was an incredibly odd “shape” to his breakout campaign, but when looking at the year-end numbers he combined a low strikeout rate with a high barrel rate. Among qualified hitters he finished with the 24th highest barrel% in the league. Within those 24 players he had the 5th lowest K%. That’s a fantastic combination to build upon. Then add in the fact he’ll likely hit leadoff in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Finally, it should be noted that he was playing through a nerve/shoulder issue for a lot of the summer, which explains a lot of his struggles during that time.
43. Ian Happ, Cubs
Happ’s standout skill is swinging at strikes while simultaneously not swinging at balls. Among qualified hitters in 2022 he ranked 14th in Z-swing% minus O-swing%.
This knowledge of the zone helps him get the most out of some modest hard-hit numbers. Furthermore, Happ’s defense and lack of threats on the Cubs’ depth chart will keep him in the lineup on a daily basis. Similar to Ward, this is a great “floor” play at this point in the rankings.
46. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Twins
Now let’s talk about some upside.
Rodriguez was one of the prospects whose value most increased while I conducted my offseason research. He’s my No. 35 prospect overall, and similar to how I’m valuing Jackson Chourio in dynasty, this ranking has a lot to do with what E-Rod could become.
A knee injury limited the 19-year-old to just 47 games at Low-A last summer, but he hit .272/.492/.551 with a 28.6 BB%. That OBP is truly absurd. If Rodriguez hadn’t gotten hurt in June, and if he had played a full season, then he likely would rank a lot higher on prospect lists entering this season.
Of course, the flip side of this is that we’re dealing with a minuscule sample size. Rodriguez clearly wasn’t being fooled by any offerings at Low-A. He still has some swing-and-miss to his game, but combining power with an elite batting eye is an excellent foundation. A strong start to 2023 would establish him as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. I’m willing to risk an ambitious ranking to try and be early on him.
51. Adolis Garcia, Rangers
This profile just isn’t for me. Hitting the ball hard, but with dreadful plate discipline and whiff concerns, is a risky skill set to bet on. Garcia came through for those who believed in 2022, swatting 27 homers and swiping 25 bags. He might deliver again this season, but he’s always going to be at risk of bottoming out.
If I rostered him in a strict 5x5 roto dynasty format and was competing and wasn’t necessarily reliant on him, then there’s a case to be made to just ride his production until it runs out, whether it happens in 2023 or 2026.
However, in most formats I wouldn’t be willing to risk getting nothing in return, which would lead me to shopping him now. Should Garcia continue to defy expectations in his 30s then all the power to him, but I’m betting against it.
62. Miguel Bleis, Red Sox
Bleis is my pick to make a massive jump in prospect rankings by the end of 2023. The reports from Baseball America, among other sources, are glowing. Here’s an example from this linked BA piece ($):
Scouts who saw the 18-year-old believe he has the makings of a true five-tool player. He hits the ball hard for his age and didn’t post outlandish rates of chase or in-zone swing and miss. He struck out a fair amount and did have issues against breaking stuff, which evaluators chalked up mostly to his youth. They also noted that he could catch up to even premium fastball velocity with relative ease.
He’s also an incredibly quick player, boasting plus speed that should help him on both defense and the basepaths. Bleis can glide to both his left and right as well as forward and backward in center field, giving him the range scouts believe will help him stick at the position as he moves up the minor league ladder.
Bleis has tools, youth and production on his side. Now, he needs to shore up his approach and get a better handle on breaking balls to truly tap into his talents. How well he does that will largely determine his future, but the upside is there to be a superstar in the coming years.
78. Wil Myers, Reds
He’s an excellent (cheap) option for competing dynasty squads due to the improvement in his park factors:
85. Josh Lowe, Rays
Just don’t lose track of him. Lowe hit a staggering .315/.402/.556 (151 wRC+) at Triple-A last season, though it came with a 33 K%.
The strikeout issues limited his impact during his first go-round of big league pitching. I’m only adding a brief note on him here because he feels completely forgotten (514 NFBC ADP in February).
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