Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings Takeaways (Part 3)
Mostly profiling some under-the-radar youngsters to be aware of
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty SP rankings.
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73. Jeffrey Springs, Rays
Going to kick things off with a “more established” arm in this range of the ranks, but someone who I believe still has upside to unlock.
Springs began the 2022 season in the Rays’ bullpen and didn’t join the rotation on a full-time basis until May 9th. I’m going to only look at his stats from then on, since his full-season rates were inflated by shorter appearances. The results are still highly impressive:
20.3 K-BB% (would’ve tied for 11th among qualified SPs)
25.9 K% (tied for 9th)
5.6 BB% (tied for 13th)
13.5 SwStr% (tied for 9th)
40 GB% (31st)
Of course, Springs only threw 122 1/3 innings during this time, and only 45 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the comparisons aren’t perfect. I only point out where he would’ve ranked to show that his skills are legit.
Springs limits walks and generates whiffs while posting acceptable grounder rates. There isn’t a lot not to like. Tampa Bay unfortunately puts pitch count restraints on all their starters, which requires Springs to be efficient every time out in order to have a chance at a win or a quality start, but he still completed 6 IP seven times last year.
Springs is missing a “here’s what’s coming, can you hit it?” offering but perhaps a new sweeper he’s working on will help. We know the changeup is plus-plus. Also note the Rays are invested in him, having signed him to a 4-year, $31 million extension this offseason.
86. Daniel Espino, Guardians
I removed Espino from my Top 50 Prospects list after it was announced in mid-February that he was being shut down from throwing due to a shoulder strain. He didn’t pitch off a mound all offseason and only threw 18 1/3 innings in 2022.
That small sample was electric, and Espino had an eye-popping 40.5 K% in 2021 (which led all minor leaguers with at least 90 IP), but this is an enormous amount of missed time. His career-high in innings for a season is 91 2/3, and there’s no way he’s meaningfully topping that in ‘23, so it’s going to be a while before he logs a significant workload for your dynasty team.
Luckily the most recent update is a positive one:
87. Hayden Wesneski, Cubs
At the beginning of last season I was drinking the Yankees’ “whirly” kool-aid pretty hard. We’ve since seen plenty of teams and players adopt some version of the whirly/sweeper, but at the start of 2022 the Yankees were clearly ahead of the curve with an organization-wide pitching philosophy.
Wesneski, a 2019 Round 6 draft pick, was one of the lesser-known prospects who was reportedly taking well to the whirly. That alone interested me. Then he was dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline (a team who is also working on their own “pitching lab”), and by September he really impressed me with a cup of coffee in the bigs:
33 IP
47.1 GB%
19.7 K-BB% (5.3 BB%)
102/107/106 Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+
Here we have a profile similar to Springs. There isn’t premium velocity to bank on, but Wesneski combines strike throwing with bat-missing and generating grounders. Those are skills we want to see in small samples.
Furthermore, I believe there’s a pitch mix adjustment sitting there for the 25-year-old:
I’d be curious to see Wesneski’s results if he ditched the four-seamer, or at least lessened its usage. His first go-round at facing major league hitters went well enough with it, but mixing in more cutters could possibly take his game to the next level.
88. Ken Waldichuk, A’s
I’ve mentally lumped Wesneski and Waldichuk together in the ranks for quite some time now, likely because they were both featured in Lindsey Adler’s “whirly” piece. Their stories are similar — lesser-known college arms who saw a boost in “stuff” after working with the Yankees’ development.
They were also both dealt at the ‘22 trade deadline. Waldichuk landed in Oakland, which instantly puts him on the streaming radar for home starts. Based on his fly ball profile, he might’ve needed the move away from Yankee Stadium.
The “King of Funk” has some skills, too. A 15.8 K-BB% in his initial 34 2/3 major league frames is solid. He posted a 4.93 ERA with a 4.30 FIP.
Waldichuk focused primarily on his fastball (56.5 usage%) while mixing in a sweeper, changeup, and curve. All of his pitches graded out as average by Stuff+. Unlike Wesneski, I’m not positive there’s another obvious step for Waldichuk to make.
The use case is clear for now, though — insert the 25-year-old southpaw into your fantasy lineups when he’s facing a favorable opponent at home.
89. Tanner Bibee, Guardians
I was really impressed listening to Bibee on this episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast.
He has a standout changeup and curve, and he throws strikes. Here’s my Bibee summary from a recent piece on prospects I love outside my Top 50:
While Bibee’s age and draft capital have kept him hidden for a while, the production was fantastic last summer. He totaled a 2.17 ERA with a 27.1 K-BB% in 132 ⅔ IP between High-A and Double-A. Believe in those results. Believe in the Guardians’ development. Believe in Bibee!
97. Clarke Schmidt, Yankees
He’s always had incredible breaking balls (slider, knuckle curve), but middling K-BB% results due to bad fastballs.
However, he’s adding a cutter this spring and entering Thursday has a 17:1 K:BB. Interesting!
112. Jared Shuster, Braves
Let’s close with another spring riser as Shuster has suddenly inserted himself into the thick of Atlanta’s fifth starter competition.
What began as a contest between Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka has now become a matchup of Shuster and fellow prospect Dylan Dodd.
Shuster was the 25th overall pick from the 2020 draft — a “high floor” southpaw out of Wake Forest. Shuster’s fastball doesn’t have high-end velocity and his changeup is his best offering. He also has a slider that he’s working on throwing harder while still maintaining his plus command.
The 24-year-old made it to Triple-A by the end of last summer, so he’s seemingly ready for the bigs should he beat out Dodd. Through four appearances this spring (12 2/3 IP) Shuster has a 16:2 K:BB and a shiny 0.71 ERA.
Of course, Dodd has been equally impressive, with a 15:2 K:BB and a 0.69 ERA through 13 frames. He was similarly regarded for his pitchability over pure stuff as an amateur. The 2021 Round 3 pick also reached Triple-A last season.
I don’t think either of these guys are the next Spencer Strider, but a Kyle Wright-esque success story could be in play. The Braves clearly know what they’re doing developmentally nowadays. Both arms should be on your dynasty radar until further notice.
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