Dynasty Third Base Rankings Takeaways
A shallow position needs Ke'Bryan Hayes to realize his potential.
Scattered thoughts from recently completing an overhaul of my dynasty third base rankings.
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1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal notes here the plan for Witt is to be the Royals’ everyday shortstop in 2023, so this might be his final year of eligibility at third base.
Barring a meaningful change in his plate discipline, I think Witt will fall into the category of being “better for fantasy”, similar to Bo Bichette. As a rookie Witt smacked 20 homers and swiped 30 bases, but he posted just a .294 OBP and a .722 OPS.
As long as those power-speed numbers keep piling up that’ll be okay with fantasy managers. Note that Witt is one of the 5 fastest players in baseball and could see a league-winning number of stolen base opportunities if the new rules end up rewarding the fastest players more.
It’s also encouraging he chased less as the year went on:
I’m giving Witt a slight lean over Rafael Devers in the rankings due to his age and speed.
6. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
The early portion of my offseason research has me latching onto Henderson as one of “my guys” for 2023. Some rationale from his brief time with the Orioles:
23.2% O-swing (would’ve ranked 9th among qualified hitters)
53.7% hard-hit rate (would’ve ranked 4th)
92.4 mph average exit velo (would’ve ranked 13th)
91st percentile sprint speed
73rd percentile max exit velo
This is a unique situation where Henderson is still a prospect but we already have a decent sample size of him playing in the majors (and therefore some meaningful data like the numbers above). The results represent a good combination of seletivity, hard hit abilities, and athleticism.
As noted in my Prospect Team of the Year, of the 111 players who logged at least 500 plate appearances in the upper minors last year, Henderson ranked top-10 in OBP, SLG, OPS, and wRC+. He told MLB Pipeline midway through the season that his coaches had him use a medicine ball as his strike zone during BP. This got him in a mindset of only swinging at pitches he can do damage with.
His plate discipline improved dramatically to begin the year, and then his power arrived when the weather began warming up.
One thing to monitor from his time in Baltimore is a 59.2 GB%. This comes after he posted a 50.3 GB% at Triple-A.
As for what position he ultimately settles at, it sounds like the Orioles want 4 players to mix and match between 2B, 3B, and SS — which right now would be Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Adam Frazier. I usually prefer that elite prospects settle into one spot, but this would help greatly with positional eligibility.
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates
I recently wrote about why Spencer Torkelson should pull more fly balls, and the logic is the same for Hayes entering his age-26 campaign.
This past season Hayes’ percentile finishes in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and max exit velocity were 84th, 85th, and 89th, respectively. And yet he hit just 7 home runs in 560 plate appearances. Baffling.
Due to changes with the ball itself, here are the rates at which pulled and oppo fly balls have turned into homers since 2016:
In 2022, homers on pulled fly balls were down 15.8% from 2019, the height of the Juiced Ball Era. Homers on opposite field fly balls were down 45%! Here are Hayes’ percentages of opposite field fly balls, by season:
2020: 50%
2021: 48.6%
2022: 56.8%
Career: 53.2%
This is such a big deal for Hayes because he gives himself such little margin for error when combining it with his GB%. Here are his grounder rates by season:
2020: 47.7%
2021: 56.7%
2022: 49.4%
Career: 52%
Running a high GB% isn’t a death sentence, but it does decrease a hitter’s margin for error.
Hayes has the offensive skill set to become a star. It’s just a matter of whether or not he can make the necessary changes to unlock his potential.
13. Josh Jung, Rangers
One of the only pieces of actual baseball news to come out during last year’s lockout was that Jung suffered a left shoulder strain while lifting weights. Pain.
Jung didn’t return to the field until late July, but by early September found himself in the majors — slashing .204/.235/.418 with 5 HR and a 38.2 K% in 102 PAs.
Those numbers are a bit alarming, but context is important. For one, he was facing big league pitching for the first time in his life following a major operation. Secondly, he was never seen as having strikeout issues as a prospect coming up. In fact, the combination of his hit tool and power is what made him a blue-chip prospect by the end of ‘21.
Jung has a career 21.2 K% in the minors. It was 28.3% at Triple-A in 2022, but that was post-surgery. At the same level in 2021 it was just 21.8%. I’m willing to write off his major league strikeout concerns since they were never an issue in the minors, and since his entire 2022 was thrown out of whack.
Finally, it’s good to note Jung’s chase and contact rates were improving throughout his time with Texas:
20. Cam Collier, Reds
I’m still finalizing my First Year Player Draft rankings but Collier is going to be a top 7 or 8 pick for me. I’m biased towards prospects with a strong hit tool, and by all reports Collier has a smooth swing with excellent hands. My interest in him is admittedly more of a “scouting take” since his professional experience is so limited.
Collier was the 18th overall pick from the ‘22 draft and was given the 10th largest bonus. He works counts and draws walks. It’s a “whole fields, hit-over-power” approach, so we’ll have to see what the power output ultimately looks like down the road. Simply, this is the type of profile I prefer buying into.
23. Justin Turner, Red Sox
Turner got off to a slow start in 2022, his age-37 season, and I was admittedly very worried. He was able to bounce back with a 144 wRC+ from May 17th through the end of the year, which ranked 18th among qualified hitters.
He might not even have 3B eligibility at this time next year, but there’s a chance he qualifies at 1B at some point in 2023 too. Targeting cheap veterans like Turner can be a great way to round out a contending roster.
30. Mark Vientos, Mets
Vientos got off to a sluggish start at Triple-A this past season, but from May 1st on he hit .303/.378/.558 (144 wRC+). He had the highest ISO (.238) among all Triple-A bats age 22 or younger. If you include Double-A then only Logan O’Hoppe and Orelvis Martinez posted a better mark.
However, including his time in the majors, he hit .315/.401/.692 (1.094 OPS) against lefties but just .250/.326/.409 against righties (.734 OPS). There’s definite platoon risk as he struggles to pick up right-handed spin.
On a side note, anyone else think his narrow, upright stance reminds you of George Springer?
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