Tuma's 2022 All-Prospect Team! (For Position Players)
A reason to talk about the best performing prospects from the year that was
There isn’t anything incredibly unique about this — it’s just my version of a 2022 “All-Prospect” team. It’s an exercise I want to do every year and this is the first time I’m officially writing it.
Roster spots are based on a combination of prospect pedigree, age, playing level, and statistical results. For instance, there are some minor league players in their mid-to-upper 20s who went off this season, but I’d also like to use this as an excuse to dive into some of the top prospect names everyone should be getting familiar with.
Starting pitchers to be announced in a future post.
Each position handed out includes a short writeup. Here we go.
Catcher: Endy Rodriguez, Pirates
We’re one position in and I’ve already spent too much time overthinking it. While Logan O’Hoppe posted immaculate plate discipline numbers, combined with plus power, Rodriguez’s defensive versatility is so damn interesting to me.
The 22-year-old was acquired via the Mets as part of the 3-team Joe Musgrove trade and moved from High-A to Triple-A this past season. In Double-A/Triple-A Rodriguez mostly played catcher with some second base duties sprinkled in as well. Neat!
But in High-A, he played 51 games behind the plate, 15 at 2B, 13 in LF, and 3 at 1B. I’m curious if the Pirates plan to use him at more of these spots as he gets further acclimated to the upper minors.
Either way, 2B could become a secondary position for him, which would be really promising for fantasy. Perhaps he’s the next Isiah Kiner-Falefa or, even better, Daulton Varsho.
At the plate, E-Rod is a wiry switch-hitter who slashed .323/.407/.590 while leading all minor league catchers in wRC+ (166). He also popped 25 homers and could be in line for a 2023 debut if Pittsburgh’s front office shows any signs of accelerating their prospect development.
First Base: Kyle Manzardo, Rays
I wrote a lot about Manzardo very recently, so if you’re interested in reading more about his successes you can do so here.
The short of it is this: Manzardo was one of just two minor league players to post a .270 ISO or better, along with at least a 12 BB% and less than a 17 K%. The other was Vinnie Pasquantino. These two first basemen balance plate discipline and power in a way you don’t always see.
Manzardo, the 63rd overall pick in 2021 by Tampa Bay, played at High-A and Double-A this year while leading all MiLB first basemen in wRC+ (173).
Second Base: Emmanuel Valdez, Red Sox
It was a rough year for prospects manning the keystone. Not a lot of exciting options to choose from. Preseason darlings Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales disappointed early. I’m considering Vaughn Grissom a SS since that’s what he mostly played at Double-A. This leaves me choosing between Valdez and Jonathan Aranda.
I had covered Aranda towards the end of the Rays’ season, so for that reason I’ll choose Valdez here.
He probably has the least amount of “prospect shine” of anyone on this roster. In fact, he’s the only one who didn’t finish 2022 on BA’s year-end Top 100 list. They ranked Valdez as Boston’s No. 16 prospect in the midseason update. Here’s their scouting report:
Scouting Report: Over the last two seasons, Valdez has progressed from an aggressive contact hitter with bat speed-driven raw power to a complete hitter at the plate. He now makes contact at an above-average rate, rarely expands the zone and shows exit velocity data that would rank above-average in the major leagues. He's a tough out that grinds out at-bats, can hit for contact and punish mistakes. While he's progressed into a legitimate offensive prospect there are questions around his long-term defensive home. He logged time at second and third base as a professional but is likely to land at second base long term, where there will be added pressure on his bat to produce.
Valdez was acquired as part of the Christian Vazquez trade with the Astros and moved from Double-A to Triple-A during his age-23 season. Overall, he hit .296 with 28 homers and finished second among MiLB second basemen with a .918 OPS.
Unfortunately, a healthy allotment of that production came at Double-A. Incoming shift restrictions won’t him play much 2B in the majors, either. Valdez had a great stretch this past summer at a weak position, but he’ll need to keep hitting at Triple-A before we take him seriously as a fantasy prospect. A future bat-first utility role is the most likely outcome.
Third Base: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
Henderson and Corbin Carroll are going to be such fascinating prospects to discuss this winter because 2022 felt like their rookie seasons. The new, post-lockout MLB rules incentivized clubs to call up their top prospects more aggressively, including in September. This creates enough playing time to give them a real look in the bigs, but not quite enough playing time for them to lose prospect eligibility.
You’re likely already pretty familiar with Gunnar, who was named BA’s Minor Leaguer of the Year and Pipeline’s Hitting Prospect of the Year. Here are some of Henderson’s highlights from 2022:
He was one of 111 players to get at least 500 PAs in the top 2 levels of the minors, and he finished top-10 in OBP, SLG, OPS, and wRC+.
He never faced a pitcher younger than him.
The transition from Top 50 prospect to possibly being ranked No. 1 overall this offseason stemmed from his improved plate discipline. Henderson posted a 41:38 BB:K ratio in Double-A. He then struck out 26.4% of the time in Triple-A and 25.8% of the time in the majors, and both of those marks are well below his 30.1 K% from High-A in 2021.
Henderson told the MLB Pipeline Podcast that a key developmental change for him was coaches using a medicine ball as a strike zone during batting practice. (Meanwhile, BA noted he also practiced against softer, foam balls that simulated hoppy fastballs at the top of the zone, which was his weakness entering ‘22).
These training cues forced him to only swing at pithes he could do damage with. As the weather warmed up this season, Henderson’s power stroke arrived with it. It’s going to be fun discussing both his dynasty value and his redraft ADP in the coming months.
Shortstop: Elly De La Cruz, Reds
The 20-year-old phenom entered this past season as a thrilling-yet-flawed prospect. One year later, that’s still where we are with Elly, who in 2022 became the youngest minor leaguer to have a .300-20-20 season since Ronald Acuña in 2017. The difference from last offseason is the ceiling seems even higher now.
De La Cruz ultimately finished with a .304 average, 28 homers, and 47 stolen bases. In fact, he went .300-20-20 in High-A alone. Midway through the summer the Reds bumped him up to Double-A where he continued his torrid campaign.
The red flag with his hitting profile is the strikeout rate, which has been above 30% in each of his minor league stops since leaving rookie ball. We know that when hitters are first starting out, they tend to improve their strikeout rates throughout their primes. This is the “bull” case for De La Cruz (and Oneil Cruz as well). He has an uber-elite power/speed skill set. If the K% even becomes manageable, this could be a superstar.
The “bear” case is that he’s already striking out 30% of the time in Double-A, and he’s only going to see better pitching as he keeps climbing the professional ladder. This makes him a very risky bet when valued as a top-3 fantasy prospect.
Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
Similar to Henderson, a lot of the redraft community is already familiar Carroll and his prodigious speed. Carroll had the fastest sprint speed in MLB this past season, clocking in at 30.7 feet per second. However, he swiped just two bases in 115 big league PAs.
This was likely due to Carroll getting acclimated to life with the Diamondbacks. It isn’t as if he didn’t produce overall — slashing .260/.330/.500 (130 wRC+) with 4 homers. He also went 31-for-36 swiping bases in the minors in 2022. So the SBs should come, especially with the new rules.
Carroll’s ultimate ceiling for 5x5 roto managers likely comes down to whether he’s a 30-steal player or a 50-steal player. I’ll also be curious to see how he performs power-wise, though.
Among minor league bats aged 22 or younger, only Manzardo posted a higher slugging percentage and OPS than Caroll. Nobody has a higher ISO. When looking at wRC+, which factors in hitting environments, Carroll ranked 5th. To be clear, this is still immensely elite, but it speaks to the one “criticism” of his MiLB numbers — that he played in extremely hitter-friendly environments.
According to Baseball America’s 2022 Minor League park factors, Double-A Amarillo is in the 100th percentiles of offensive environments for prospects. Triple-A Reno is in the 91st percentile.
I only say this as a warning to not get carried away with some of his stats from the upper minors. I’m definitely encouraged that he popped the aforementioned 4 homers in just 32 big league games. The buzz on Carroll is likely to grow as we get closer and closer to Opening Day.
Outfield: Jackson Chourio, Brewers
My best performing Substack article to-date is a mid-June piece titled “Jackson Chourio Is Breaking Minor League Baseball.” In it, I refer to a tweet that points out the rarified air Chourio found himself in at the time:
That was on June 10th. Chourio ended up finishing with a 160 wRC+ during his time in Single-A, which only checks in as the 4th highest total for an 18-year-old since 2007, between two players named Bryce Harper and Wander Franco. What a disappointment…
Chourio didn’t stop there, though. Despite not turning 19 until March 2023, Chourio moved up to High-A in late July where he became one of just 9 minor leaguers since 2006, age 18 or younger, to post at least a league-average wRC+ at the level. His 119 wRC+ is ranked 3rd among this group, just ahead of Mike Trout’s 117 mark from 2010.
The scouting report on Chourio is that he’s an explosive athlete with “whippy” bat speed. He’s known to have a mature approach at the plate with a strong ability to recognize pitches.
What makes him most special right now, however, is his age. It cannot be stressed enough. Chourio did all of this at 18 years old. Just for fun, the Brewers had him spend 6 games at Double-A to close out the season, and he predictably struggled. Chourio is already viewed as a no-doubter, top-5 fantasy prospect. I roster him in one dynasty league and already consider him untouchable. If he backs up what he did this summer in 2023, he’ll quickly become the consensus No. 1 prospect in every ranking system, fantasy or real-life.
Outfield: Jordan Walker, Cardinals
You might think of Walker as a third baseman. That’s what he played for the majority of his minor league career. However, Nolan Arenado just opted in to the remaining 5 years on his contract with the Cardinals. He’s pretty smooth at the hot corner, so Walker began playing the outfield at Double-A in August.
He’s getting additional reps at the Arizona Fall League, as well. It’s probably a good sign that one of his throws from right field registered 99.5 mph, which is a higher velocity than any St. Louis outfielder has recorded since Statcast began tracking this metric in 2015.
Walker’s looking like an early candidate to be a “Statcast darling” by the time he reaches the majors. According to the limited Baseball Savant data available in the AFL, Walker is putting up elite exit velocities and even some noteworthy sprint speeds!
This is a physical specimen who was given an aggressive assignment to begin 2022, reporting to Double-A at just 19 years old. He flourished, hitting .306/.388/.510 (128 wRC+) with a 21.6 K% and a 10.8 BB%. That’s great plate discipline! Walker also swatted 19 homers and stole 22 bases. He’s an easy top-5 dynasty league fantasy prospect as he gets set to enter his age-21 campaign next year.
Designated Hitter: Brett Baty, Mets
No, Baty isn’t an actual DH, but I needed to find a way to get Gunnar, Elly, Walker, and Baty all on this team and it isn’t as if there are any actual DH prospects out there. So I’m treating my DH spot as “best remaining offensive player.”
The 22-year-old former first-round pick had a special season in the minors, leading all third baseman with a 159 wRC+ and barely finishing behind Henderson in OPS (.943 to .946).
A disciplined bat with natural feel for the barrel, Baty’s issue entering ‘22 was that he hit way too many grounders. During his time at Double-A in 2021, he had a ground ball rate of 61%.
He lowered that to 43% in Double-A this past summer, though it crept back up to over 50% in his extremely brief time in Triple-A and the majors (17 games).
This will be the key metric to track with Baty in 2023. A 50% ground ball rate isn’t an automatic death sentence for a big league hitter, but it does man he’ll have to maximize the fly balls he hits. It’s a similar path to what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had to go through prior to 2021.
