Edward Cabrera Is the Prized Trade Target of This Offseason
If Cabrera is actually available this offseason, teams should be lining up to trade for him
Back in September I wrote up Edward Cabrera as a trade target for dynasty fantasy baseball managers. I planned on making him a redraft breakout pick closer to the season, and thought I’d next think about him in spring training.
He’s since been in the news, beginning in early December when Jon Heyman tweeted that the Marlins will listen on “almost anyone” besides Sandy Alcantara. Fair, as Miami clearly needs to trade pitching for offense and Pablo Lopez has been a rumored trade candidate for a bit now.
I personally never really considered Cabrera as a serious trade candidate as he has a whopping 6 years of team control left (Lopez has just 2). Still, there was speculation.
Then in early January Bob Nightengale (I know, I know) reported Cabrera is one of 4 SPs that the Marlins are telling other teams are available (Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Jesus Luzardo being the other 3).
This has shifted my interest in Cabrera from being primarily fantasy driven, to more reality baseball based. Any MLB team who has hitters the Marlins might be interested in should be asking about Cabrera. He’s potentially a tweak or two away from a full-fledged breakout.
Where He’s At
Cabrera’s 2021 debut didn’t go as planned — he posted a 5.81 ERA in 7 starts (26 1/3 IP). He got off to a late start that season due to an inflamed nerve in February. This was after he missed all of 2020 due to the pandemic.
Entering 2022, he was still a top-70 prospect according to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline (where he ranked 34th). And the results were much better — in 71 2/3 big league innings he recorded a 3.01 ERA with some decent Statcast sliders:
However, Cabrera might’ve overachieved if you believe his FIP (4.59), xFIP (4.12), or even his xERA (4.05). I personally think he pitched better than his FIP suggests, and that the answer is somewhere in the middle. Cabrera might have the skill for limiting hard contact, but he still ran hot throughout 2022.
Note his .207 BABIP would’ve been the lowest in the majors among qualified starters, while his 86.1 LOB% would’ve ranked second.
No matter what Cabrera does in ‘23, those numbers are going to regress, which would likely make the 24-year-old a mid-rotation arm as is. Cabrera’s 14.4 K-BB% (one of the most consistent metrics to monitor for starters) wasn’t anything special last year. Really, the shiny ERA is the only standout stat on his page. Everything else screams regression.
This is why he’s a high-upside trade target. Teams wouldn’t be adding him for where he’s at. They’d be trading for him because of…
Where He Could Be
Cabrera is still so unpolished. He has less than 100 innings pitched in the majors. He’s still figuring out what’s working and what’s not working.
In a weird way, it’s a good thing that we’re quickly learning what isn’t working, because Cabrera will be able to adjust. A look at his pitch mix and the results on each offering makes it seem simple:
For starters, Cabrera could axe his four-seamer while mixing in more curves and sliders, and it would likely result in a huge improvement. Part of the issue is that his changeup comes in at 92.5 mph, while his four-seamer averages 96. Take a look at how dominant the changeup appears to be:
When you can do that, you don’t really need a four-seamer.
This is especially true because Cabrera’s arm slot generates such little vertical movement according to Baseball Savant. It’s thrown a little bit harder than his changeup, but the lack of movement doesn’t make up for that. Meanwhile, the curve and slider pair well with his changeup to focus on an east-west attack of the strike zone.
I’m hopeful that any coaching staff would recommend these changes to Cabrera, but I’d particularly expect them to occur if he stayed on the Marlins. Their organization has become known for pitching development, and they recently helped Sandy Alcantara find the right pitch mix to unlock a Cy Young campaign out of him:
So Who Might Be Interested?
My Boston Red Sox have been linked to the Marlins, both for potentially acquiring one of their pitchers, and also for infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas (who has since been moved to the Dodgers). There was a report out there that Miami wanted Triston Casas from Boston, which won’t happen. Perhaps a combination of Alex Verdugo, Tanner Houck, and a prospect like Ceddanne Rafaela could be of interest.
Heyman reports the Marlins sought Brendan Rodgers in a potential Cabrera trade, which I’m surprised Colorado didn’t pounce on.
Otherwise, there haven’t been many rumors linking teams to Cabrera. The Marlins desperately needed a patient, big bopper offensively. In 2022 their offense ranked bottom-6 in ISO, K%, and BB%, meaning they didn’t hit for power, struck out a lot, and didn’t walk enough.
Free swingers like Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler highlight the flaw in their offense. It’s why Casas would actually be perfect for them, though the Red Sox need that skill set in their lineup too.
The Cardinals currently have a logjam of position players, including Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman. If they’re interested, they make the most sense to me as a trade partner.
Someone should be interested, though — both front offices in real life, as well as dynasty managers. Cabrera’s skill set is obvious, and he’s dangerously close to unlocking his full potential.