Hunter Greene Isn’t Perfect, but He’s My No. 1 Starting Pitcher Target in 2023 Fantasy Baseball Leagues
Outside of Cristian Javier, of course
I don’t consider Cristian Javier a breakout pick for 2023. He’s already there. In both Underdog and NFBC drafts the 25-year-old supernova is being drafted within the top 60 picks.
We witnessed his breakout last June, when Javier spun 7 no-hit innings against the Yankees with a 13:1 K:BB ratio. We also saw it in September when over his final 4 starts of the regular season he went 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 IP.
Finally, we saw it in the WORLD SERIES when Javier (6 innings) combined with three relievers to throw the second no-hitter in Fall Classic history.
I LOVE Javier. Back in January I wrote about how I want him everywhere this season. And I stand by that. If you, the reader, allows him as a breakout selection, then he’s my No. 1 starting pitcher to target for the upcoming year.
But he’s already so highly respected. I want shares at his current price, to be clear, but this valuation already assumes he takes a step forward. Meanwhile, here are Hunter Greene’s ADPs on each site:
Underdog: 91.2 ADP (no relievers)
NFBC: 107
Greene is volatile. He went 5-13 with a 4.44 ERA last season. He pitches in a bad park. These prices are more in line with what a breakout pick looks like.
And yet, there’s a case to be made that Greene already made the leap late last season. You just had to be paying attention to notice it.
The Beginning
Greene’s first two starts of his rookie year were promising - a 13:2 K:BB ratio with a 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 innings. Those outings came against the Braves and Dodgers, however, so it was alright they weren’t dominant.
Then the wheels fell off as Greene allowed a whopping 15 earned runs in his next three starts. Things were inconsistent for a while. Greene threw 7 1/3 hitless innings against the Pirates on May 15th, but he walked five. It was followed up by another strong start against the Blue Jays, but then he allowed 9 earned runs in his next two appearances.
From late-April through mid-July Greene allowed 4+ ER a total of 8 times. Fantasy managers were frustrated by the volatility and rarely benefitted from the strong performances, as the fear of a blowup outing was always lingering.
Through July 15th Greene was 3-11 with a 5.78 ERA and a 4 BB/9.
The Issues
The biggest talking point around Greene’s struggles during this time was that his fastball was too flat.
This isn’t intuitive. Greene’s 98.9 mph average fastball velo tied Jacob deGrom for the hardest thrown heater by a starting pitcher in 2022. So why was it so hittable?
The issue is that his four-seamer has generic vertical movement, which means it never zigs or zags in a way hitters don’t expect. Instead of missing barrels, Greene’s fastball often sails right into them. His high release point doesn’t help either. It leads to a combo that hitters are used to, even at the high velocity.
But his premium velo wasn’t even that consistent on game-by-game basis! Here are his average fastball velocities by start in ‘22:
From April through July it was all over the place. Then it began leveling out down the stretch, which led to…
The Breakout
Greene dealt with a minor injury in August, but over his final 6 starts of the season he was immaculate:
As always, full-season statistics are more predictive than partial-season statistics. A 1.02 ERA isn’t the new normal for Greene, but we should be more inclined to believe in-season improvements for younger players as there could be skill/approach changes under the hood. And I think that’s the case here.
In addition to maintaining a consistent fastball velocity to close out the season, Greene started locating his heater in a much more favorable location: up in the zone.
Below, via Baseball Savant, is Greene’s four-seamer heat map for the entire season. There’s a disturbing amount of middle-middle there. Without any unique characteristics to Greene’s primary offering, this ended up as a disaster for him early on.
But here are Greene’s fastball locations for only the month of September:
This is a meaningful change. When Greene held his elite velocity from start to start AND threw it up in the zone, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. It was a small sample, but there’s a tangible change to latch onto and the success he had was so overwhelming that it’s worth chasing.
The Final Verdict
The one issue is that Greene’s home park isn’t changing anytime soon. Baseball Savant’s park factors have Great American as the second-most hitter friendly environment in MLB and easily the most favorable for home runs.
Among pitchers who logged at least 120 innings last year, Greene’s 1.72 HR/9 was the second highest in baseball while his 16.1 HR/FB% came in 5th highest.
Using that same innings threshold, Greene ranked 15th with a 21.8 K-BB%. The skills are present and if he called a pitcher’s park home the breakout case would be even stronger. The difference in his FIP (4.37) and xFIP (3.64) highlight the park issues.
The hope, then, is that Greene’s arsenal (and newfound approach in locations) proves effective enough to defuse the homer concerns. There’s reason to believe this is possible as only Spencer Strider had a higher Stuff+ in Eno Sarris’ pitching model last year.
Meanwhile, in Sarris’ 2023 projections, Greene comes in at 5th in Stuff+.
It’s equally important that Greene’s projected Location+ is 100. It’s a sign that his control/command won’t sink him. When the stuff is this elite and the command isn’t a total negative, it’s a situation to bet on. That’s especially true when the player is a flame-throwing former top prospect who doesn’t turn 24 until August.
He isn’t as clean of a breakout pick as Cristian Javier, but when factoring in price and upside there’s no starting pitcher who could provide more of a return on investment than Hunter Greene in 2023.