Kyle Stowers Just Changed the Narrative
Miami’s Trade Heist Is Powering Up in 2025
Not long ago, Kyle Stowers looked like a post-hype prospect fading into the Triple-A wilderness. Before being traded by the Orioles at last summer’s deadline, he had logged just 67 big-league games. This wasn’t enough to close the book, but the strikeout issues were loud, the path to everyday playing time was unclear, and he was already in his mid-20s.
Then came the deal: Stowers and Connor Norby to Miami in exchange for Trevor Rogers — a trade that now looks like a potential turning point in the Marlins’ rebuild.
Fast forward to this past weekend: Stowers stepped to the plate in the bottom of the ninth and crushed a walk-off grand slam off A’s fireballer Mason Miller, one of the best closers in baseball. It was the type of moment that turns heads, not just because of the drama, but because it capped a breakout start to 2025.
What’s Different This Season?
A three-game stretch with four homers, 10 RBI, and seven hits will grab attention, but the underlying data tells us this ascension might stick.
As always, it begins with controlling the strike zone:
At 120 plate appearances into the year, we can start viewing Stowers’ improvements as reliably meaningful. The gains have been fueled by a slight reduction in chase rate paired with more frequent swings in the zone, the ideal combination for a power bat trying to make contact gains.
Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric takes that insight further. Stowers has lowered his overall SEAGER this season, which captures fewer swings at hittable pitches. On its own, that might seem like a step back, but SEAGER is a component metric — and in Stowers’ case, it reflects a growing selectivity, even if it means passing up on a few borderline strikes. It’s a reminder that evaluating hitting requires a holistic lens.
Back in 2024, Stowers ranked in the 97th–99th percentile for “hittable pitches taken”, meaning he rarely got beat. Combine that with his elite damage per batted ball, and it looked like the foundation of a big leaguer. But his contact skills were so shaky that those strengths were neutralized.
Now, he can tap into that damage potential more consistently by swinging less outside the zone. His 90th percentile exit velocity tells the story:
2025: 93rd percentile in MLB
2024 (MIA stint): 78th
2024 (BAL): 71st
And then there's this, which drives it all home. Entering Sunday, these were the only MLB hitters with 100+ plate appearances, a 13% barrel-per-PA rate, and a .400 xwOBA:
Aaron Judge
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Pete Alonso
Oneil Cruz
Cal Raleigh
Ben Rice
Kyle Stowers
Regarding overall profiles, Rice stands out as the closest comp, another mid-20s lefty power breakout. Among other interesting names just off that list, Tyler Soderstrom looks similar, though with better contact skills and a bit less thump.
What It Means
This isn’t a perfect profile. There’s a reason Stowers was only part of the return for Trevor Rogers. The swing-and-miss remains extreme, and even with his strikeout rate trending down, it’s still hovering near 30%, a number that will always invite volatility.
He’s already 27 and still hasn’t played 150 career games. That context matters, especially in dynasty formats, where caution remains warranted.
But sometimes, a player doesn’t need to be perfect to matter. Stowers’ improved approach and loud contact allow him to carve out real value for a Marlins team building something interesting and for fantasy managers looking to get ahead of the breakout.
It’s early, but it’s real. And it might be time to buy in.