The Year of Vlad Jr. Begins Now
Your 2025 First Base Preview!
First base isn’t what it used to be — relative to past eras and other positions around the diamond.
As Stephen Nesbitt and Chad Jennings noted at The Athletic this offseason, “In 1999, there were 15 first basemen with a wRC+ above 120. In 2024, there were five.”
First base used to feature the game’s biggest sluggers, particularly throughout the ‘90s and early 2000s:
As shown above, the trend is more pronounced when isolating the timeline from 1987 to the present. This represents the bulk of fantasy baseball history, which aligns with our memories of first base’s offensive dominance.
It’s why the recent fall-off has felt so drastic. 2024 was a down year for the position by historical standards, but especially compared to the highs of the steroid era.
Since 2018, there have been seven full-season instances of a first baseman posting a 150 wRC+ or higher. In the six full seasons before 2018, there were 17. In the six before that, there were 22 such campaigns.
So why is this happening? Like most things in life, the answer is multifaceted:
Power is everywhere now, including at shortstop.
Baseball continues to trend younger and more athletic, including on defense, so there’s less interest in one-dimensional sluggers.
First basemen get platooned more regularly than in other positions.
Despite this, it was just two years ago we witnessed the two best 1B roto seasons since 2014:
The flip side is that Freddie Freeman (age 35) and Paul Goldschmidt (37) make up more than half of the combined list above, so perhaps the league-bending first baseman is a dying breed.
Here’s another look at the position’s recent roto history:
We didn’t have a league-bending 1B last year, though Vlad Jr. was close. He undoubtedly represents the best bet for 2025.
To further contextualize how much things have changed, let’s compare his 165 wRC+ from 2024 to Carlos Pena’s 167 wRC+ from 2007:
Vlad Jr: .323/.396/.544 with 30 HR
Pena: .282/.411/.627 with 46 HR
They were equally valuable as hitters when factoring in the overall league environment, but Pena’s numbers feel more like what a first baseman should be. It’s an interesting position for 5x5 leagues, given the (historical) power production without stolen base value. That caps the upside unless you hit for an elite batting average or are dominant with runs and RBI.
Once considered the deepest position in fantasy, First Base enters 2025 with newfound scarcity throughout the rankings.
Note that the tiers below are designed for 12-team, 5x5 roto leagues. Instead of getting too hung up on the exact order of the players, please use the analysis to understand better how each profile plays in your specific league settings.
If you have questions or additional insights, including for players who weren’t covered, please comment or reach out on Twitter @toomuchtuma!
Tier 1: League-Bending Upside
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. / Blue Jays / Age: 26
Before last year, the consensus was that 2021 was an outlier campaign for Guerrero. Now it appears as if 2023 is the outlier:
2024 featured far fewer counting stats, particularly in homers and runs scored, lowering his fantasy ceiling. Still, the season was a massive step in a positive direction for the trajectory of Vlad’s career.
It’s important to contextualize Guerrero’s greatness in the context of the state of the position. On the surface, his 2024 numbers weren’t eye-popping. When factoring in the decline of slugging first basemen and the scarcity of batting average in fantasy, he becomes a unique building block whose only flaw is the absence of stolen bases.
“Last year was the trailer,” Guerrero said following his breakout in 2021. “Now you guys are going to see the movie.”
As with many large-budget films, Vlad Jr.’s ascent has been shakier than expected, but the big box office seasons have been worth the investments. Entering his walk year, he’s a must-have pick this spring in the back half of Round 1.
Tier 2A: Batting Average, I Choose You
Bryce Harper / Phillies / Age: 32
Harper barely qualified for a legendary season back as a 22-year-old in 2015, when he posted a 197 wRC+ with a .330 average, 42 homers, 118 runs, 99 RBI, and six stolen bases. Since Barry Bonds’ final great year in 2004, the only hitters with an offensive season 90% better than the league average are Aaron Judge, Miguel Cabrera, and Harper. Not even Shohei Ohtani has accomplished this.
However, that was a decade ago for Harper, who now enters his age-32 campaign. He has begun chasing more in recent years, though an overall increase in swing rate accompanies that. Most importantly, he still does massive damage on balls in play. He’s been limited to 7-11 stolen bases over the past three years, and his homer output is more solid than league-bending. He makes up for it with what has become an equally scarce category — batting average. Since 2021, Harper is one of eight players who has hit .294 or higher.
It adds to a well-rounded profile with a high floor, which isn’t how we’ve historically viewed the budding Hall of Famer.
Freddie Freeman / Dodgers / Age: 35
Freeman’s analytical profile has been similar to Harper’s in recent years, though he trades off some damage on batted balls in favor of superior contact.
Freeman hasn’t hit 30 homers in a season since joining the Dodgers, but he continues to get on base at exceptional clips. The high-end skills are combined with many high-value plate appearances, hitting atop the Dodgers lineup.
In 2023, he authored the 9th-most valuable offensive roto season in a decade, but last year, Freeman arguably had his least impactful fantasy performance since 2017. This is a testament to his sustained production over such an extended period and a reminder that he’s entering his age-35 campaign. The game continues to trend younger, but Freeman is one of the best hitters of his generation, and it feels like we’re getting a discount off last year. While Freeman has been a stud for his entire career, his two most valuable fantasy seasons have come with the Dodgers.
Tier 2B: Homers, I Choose You
Matt Olson / Braves / Age: 30
Olson joins Freeman as a 2023 legend who came crashing back down to earth last season. A 54-139-127 line in HR-RBI-R fueled Olson’s legendary season, plus a career-best .283 batting average, helping to offset the total absence of stolen bases in his profile. He’s only stolen one in the past three years, which means he represents the beginning of a new mini-tier — at most, there’s a four-category upside here.
It isn’t discussed enough that the 2023 Braves tied the 1927 “Murderers’ Row” Yankees for the highest team wRC+ of all time. It sounds obvious to call 2023 an outlier for Olson, but his legendary campaign remains marvelous to look back on. A recent HR/barrel% analysis I did helped reveal what was behind the magical run:
The left-handed slugger has a history of volatility, so it’s always tricky to know what you’re signing up for on draft day. Still, the power upside is worth betting on at a position I’m trying to fill early. Something between his ‘23 and ‘24 seasons feels like the most fair expectation.
Pete Alonso / Mets / Age: 30
Alonso’s free agency debacle could prove a buying opportunity for fantasy managers looking to pay for power at any discount. Since 2022, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber are the only hitters with more homers than Alonso.
He now finds himself hitting within the heart of some combination of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos. The counting stat production and lineup protection could be as positive of a factor for Alonso as he’s ever had. This is for a player who has totaled at least 118 RBI three times in his career while scoring 90+ runs in the past three seasons.
Tier 3: Old Faces in New Places
Christian Walker / Astros / Age: 33
Walker has been remarkably consistent over the past three years:
2022: 122 wRC+
2023: 119
2024: 119
It was a down year for him fantasy-wise, but that’s mostly because he lost 100 plate appearances due to an oblique injury. In 2022-23, he played in 317 out of 324 games, which is impressive durability at a position that has far fewer regulars than it once did.
He enters his Houston era coming off a career-best barrel rate. His power plays anywhere, but it helps that his profile, populated with pulled fly balls, will be enjoying home games with the Crawford Boxes in left field.
Josh Naylor / Diamondbacks / Age: 27
Naylor was the third-most valuable roto first baseman last season, thanks primarily to 108 RBI that ranked eighth in MLB. He also finished second in homers among first basemen and fourth in runs scored — a three-category standout who played in 152 games, primarily hitting cleanup behind José Ramírez.
He joins an Arizona lineup that led the majors in runs last season, though some team-level regression could be imminent. Still, assuming Arizona utilizes him in an everyday role in the middle of the lineup, he’s again in a favorable spot for floor-level fantasy production.
Cody Bellinger / Yankees / Age: 29
Four key metrics explain Bellinger’s shift in production over the past two years:
Famously, he lowered his strikeout from 27% in 2021-22 to 16% in 2023. He held those gains last year but couldn’t repeat his efficiency in outperforming his expected stats.
2023: 26 barrels, 26 HR
2024: 27 barrels, 18 HR
Bellinger has never had a history of over-performing like this, so we shouldn’t expect a repeat of 2023. His only year with elite batted ball metrics came in 2019. Alex Bregman is typically my poster boy for a star player who became an MVP candidate with the Juiced Ball. Bellinger belongs on that list, however, and he won MVP.
As I was ready to move on from Belli, he winds up in the dream landing spot. Here is Bellinger’s highest xHR by the park from 2024. Recall that he hit 18.
Reds: 29
Phillies: 25
Yankees: 24
As a left-handed hitter who consistently ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in pulled fly balls, the short porch is a fantastic environmental boost—as is the Yankees’ supporting cast.
Once Harper and Freeman are off the board, Bellinger is the following (last?) best chance at five-category production from a first baseman. Outfield eligibility only adds to his appeal.
Tier 4: Upside to Dream On
Triston Casas / Red Sox / Age: 25
Here’s what I wrote about Casas earlier this offseason at Baseball America:
Casas has missed 129 games due to injury over the past two years. The jury technically remains out on how good he can (and ultimately will) become. What’s clear is what he needs to do to make it happen. Casas has thunderous raw power, as one would expect from a lefthanded slugger who can homer to the opposite field in San Francisco. A keen batting eye is another plus, but it leads to a certain passivity in his approach:
If and when we see an uptick in his “hittable pitches taken,” it’ll be time to go all-in on belief in Casas.
Vinnie Pasquantino / Royals / Age: 27
Having spent much of the offseason playing around with park factors, every Royals hitter is now viewed through the lens of the advantageous environment in Kauffman Stadium.
Pasquantino challenges the idea that Kauffman is a hitter’s paradise. The issue is that despite having the fourth-highest park factor overall, it ranks 27th in homers. It’s even worse when isolating to left-handed hitters.
“The Italian Breakfast” possesses elite contact skills, but it’ll be difficult for him to reach 25-30 homers while he’s with the Royals. Pasquantino presents fantasy managers with what I’ll call “Josh Naylor upside” — batting average combined with a possible outlier RBI total hitting behind Jonathan India and Bobby Witt Jr.
Tier 5: Batting Average Bandits
Yandy Díaz / Rays / Age: 33
Luis Arráez / Padres / Age: 27
Four of the 11 most valuable hitters for AVG are first basemen, according to Derek Carty’s THE BAT X. This includes Díaz, Arráez, Vlad Jr., and Freeman. Harper is also in the top 30.
Most of the other projected leaders are superstars, which allows managers to treat 1B as a position to secure batting average. One could go into an auction or a draft with the idea of securing AVG at various price points and wind up with Díaz or Arráez if missing out on the stars.
Yandy’s homer-to-barrel rate peaked in 2023 when he swatted 22 homers. He regressed more than expected last season, creating a potential buy-low opportunity as the Rays start playing their home games in a minor league park in the Florida heat.
Arráez’s unique profile makes him less of a “set and forget” fantasy option, but his reliable .300+ average becomes very profitable when obtained for the price of a pseudo-bench player. In these situations, pairing him with power/speed options that pop up on waivers throughout the summer is advisable.
Tier 6: Old Faces in New Places (Part II)
Paul Goldschmidt / Yankees / Age: 37
I’ve built a database of legendary seasons from 2014, and Goldy is the only first baseman to appear three times.
His last performance up to that standard came in 2022 when he won MVP and finished with an outlier HR/barrel rate:
Over the past two years, Goldy’s batting eye has worsened, and his poor zone-contact skills are inching closer to the bottom-10th percentile. His name value and new supporting cast aren’t enough for me to overlook a 37-year-old’s troubling trends.
Jake Burger / Rangers / Age: 28
Like Yandy and Arráez, who provide cheaper options for those targeting Freeman/Harper, Burger is a power fallback should one miss out on Olson or Alonso.
THE BAT X only projects 19 players to hit more homers than Burger, all of whom have more expensive ADPs. At a certain point in the draft, Burger and Jorge Soler become the final sources of (projected) meaningful homers. The move from Miami to Texas helps Burger’s counting stats, but he’s still a limited player.
Nathaniel Lowe / Nationals / Age: 29
After being replaced in Texas by Burger, Lowe brings his lifetime .356 OBP to Washington. Lowe is a known commodity at this point. He makes above-average swing decisions with strong contact skills but doesn’t pull fly balls. This leads to low-20s power potential with as many runs+RBI as the Nationals provide.
Tier 7: The Leftovers
Andrew Vaughn / White Sox / Age: 26
The case against Vaughn used to be that he didn’t pull the ball in the air. He’s improved in that area, but his chase rate has yet to budge. It’s the next step he needs to take to become more than a streaming bat in fantasy, particularly with a historically bad supporting cast.
Spencer Steer / Reds / Age: 27
Steer has produced back-to-back quality roto seasons, but they were accomplished in different ways:
Increasing his aggression on the bases helped offset his .225 average. Still, it’s concerning that he’s barely been an above-league-average hitter thus far in the majors. Cincinnati is the perfect park for his low-end batted-ball impact, and he indeed has benefited from it via his homer-to-barrel ratio (career 72%).
Metronomic-yet-fragile as a fantasy asset, I’m comfortable taking Steer only if he falls on draft day.
Ryan Mountcastle / Orioles / Age: 28
Here’s the other side of the homer-to-barrel outliers:
In 2022, the Orioles famously pushed back their left field wall, badly damaging Mountcastle’s production despite an increased barrel rate. It’s unclear if he changed his approach over the past three years, just as it’s uncertain how long it would take to adjust back. Given that the left field wall isn’t fully returning to the previous dimensions, we can’t assume Mountcastle will immediately revert to 2021 form.
Michael Busch / Cubs / Age: 27
Busch’s profile is similar to Casas’ in that each combines an exceptional eye with low aggression on pitches they should drive. Perhaps it’s part of the trade-off for an elevated BB%, but the result leaves us wanting more. It doesn’t help that Wrigley Field is a bottom-eight stadium for lefty homers, per Statcast’s park factors.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand / Reds / Age: 25
CES has just an 85 wRC+ through his first 364 MLB plate appearances. The young slugger is a pure upside bet in fantasy, but keep in mind how poor his swing decisions were in an injury-plagued 2024:
SEAGER: 9th percentile
Selectivity: 7th
Hittable Pitches Taken: 31st
Chase: 5th
He was in the 90th percentile for hittable pitches in 2023. A return to an aggressive approach, perhaps fueled by good health, could lead to an inexpensive 25 HR campaign for bargain-hunting fantasy managers.
One more passage from the Athletic article, which I resonated with as part of my top-down approach to positional analysis in fantasy baseball:
“When Fred McGriff hit 31 homers in 1991, he ranked ninth in the majors. When he hit 31 again in 2001, he ranked 34th. Ten first basemen hit more. The game had changed around him until eventually McGwire, Jim Thome and Albert Pujols became the only first basemen ever to hit more than 580 home runs.”
It’s a reminder that the stereotypical first baseman profile once changed, and it’s pivoting again. Long/lean types led the ‘80s in Mark Grace and Don Mattingly. They gave way to beefy boppers in Andrés Galaragga and Mo Vaughn. It’s imperative to view first basemen through a different lens entering 2025, as the depth of reliable four-category producers is currently dormant.